Gregg R. Murray

Mobilization Effects Using Mail Social Pressure, Descriptive Norms, and Timing

We use field experiments in Texas and Wisconsin to address voter mobilization and turnout by evaluating nonpartisan get-out-the-vote (GOTV) messages delivered via mail during 2010 gubernatorial campaigns. We manipulate three factors in the messages: social pressure, descriptive- and injunctive-voting norm consistency, and message timing. The results present an initial field-based confirmation that norm-consistent messages increase turnout; demonstrate significant message timing effects, which are mediated by state election rules; and indicate social pressure’s effectiveness varies significantly more than previously found. These diverse findings suggest researchers place a greater emphasis on context when evaluating experiments and the effects of mobilization messages.

An Experimental Test of Mobilization Effects in a Latino Community

This article describes a field experiment designed to test the efficacy of get-out-the-vote (GOTV) techniques in a new context and for an understudied population. It evaluates the effectiveness of nonpartisan GOTV messages delivered via personal contact and mail in a heavily Latino community during the 2004 presidential campaign. It proposes and tests an alternative model of voter turnout based on Zaller’s receive–accept–sample model of public opinion. The findings are consistent with the authors’ predictions; mobilization efforts increase turnout, but mobilization effects vary across citizens based on their propensity to vote. There is a large increase among episodic voters but little increase among habitual or registered nonvoters.

Voters versus terrorists: Analyzing the effect of terrorist events on voter turnout

Scholars and policymakers commonly assume terrorism is intended to affect a broader audience beyond the physically targeted victims. Informed by scholarship regarding the effects of heuristics and emotion on political cognition and behavior, we evaluate the impact of terrorism on the broader audience of the electorate as manifested by voter turnout. We hypothesize that increased terrorism is associated with increased voter turnout. In particular, we invoke the Affective Intelligence model and its related findings that emotion plays a key role in individuals’ political cognition and behavior. Following this perspective, we argue that terrorist attacks are threatening and novel political events that induce anxiety in the electorate, which, in turn, leads individuals to scrutinize the political environment more closely and to ascribe greater salience to proximate political events. As a result of this increased concern with the political environment and increased salience of upcoming elections, we expect voter turnout to increase. While conventional explanations of turnout are important, they do not capture the effect of emotions despite other well-known relationships, such as attitudinal responses to international political crises (e.g. the rally-around-the-flag effect). Our cross-national analyses, which include 51 democracies and use two geographically and definitionally distinct datasets, indicate that the positive relationship between terrorism and turnout is non-trivial and robust.

Microtargeting and Electorate Segmentation: Data Mining the American National Election Studies

Business marketers widely use data mining for segmenting and targeting markets. To assess data mining for use by political marketers, we mined the 1948 to 2004 American National Elections Studies data file to identify a small number of variables and rules that can be used to predict individual voting behavior, including abstention, with the intent of segmenting the electorate in useful and meaningful ways. The resulting decision tree correctly predicts vote choice with 66 percent accuracy, a success rate that compares favorably with other predictive methods. More importantly, the process provides rules that identify segments of voters based on their predicted vote choice, with the vote choice of some segments predictable with up to 87 percent success. These results suggest that the data mining methodology may increase efficiency for political campaigns, but they also suggest that, from a democratic theory perspective, overall participation may be improved by communicating more effective messages that better inform intended voters and that motivate individuals to vote who otherwise may abstain.

Do You See What I See? Perceptions of Party Differences and Voting Behavior

We approach the issues of partisanship and voting behavior by focusing specifically on a seldom-studied group—the substantial proportion of citizens who see little to no important differences between the major parties. Motivated by the heuristics and burgeoning behavioral economics literatures, we conclude that party cues help reduce uncertainty for voters. More specifically, for voters lacking these cues, we expect that there will be a bias toward the incumbent candidate or party, which is motivated by the desire to decrease the potential costs of postdecision regrets. Similarly, we expect that these individuals are likely to delay choosing between candidates and may abstain from voting altogether, which is driven by a shortage of justifications on which to base the decision. We develop measures of perceived party differences based on symbolic and operational differences using data from the American National Election Study and find significant support for our hypotheses in the context of presidential elections.

Testing terrorism theory with data mining

This research demonstrates the application of multiple data mining techniques to test theories of the macro-level causes of terrorism. The unique dataset is comprised of terrorist events and measures of social, political and economic contexts in 185 countries worldwide between the years 1970 and 2004. The theories are assessed using the iterative expert data mining (IEDM) methodology with classification mining and then association mining. The resulting 100 rules suggest that the level of democracy in a country is an integral part of the explanation for terrorism. This research shows that a multi-method data mining approach can be used to test competing theories in a discipline by analysing large, comprehensive datasets that capture multiple theories and include large numbers of records.

“You've Gone Too Far”: Social Pressure Mobilization, Reactance, and Individual Differences

Important theoretical strides have been made in understanding how to mobilize voters. One especially promising technique encourages voting by suggesting to people their compliance with social norms to vote is being monitored. While several studies register increases in turnout with social pressure techniques, campaigns have failed to adopt them. Our previous research suggests this may be because of voter backlash against these techniques. In this article, we delve more deeply into partisan, sex, and age differences in voter backlash effects in an effort to identify subgroups that may not react to campaigns mobilizing their supporters by using these powerful techniques.

Classification Trees as Proxies

In data analysis, when data are unattainable, it is common to select a closely related attribute as a proxy. But sometimes substitution of one attribute for another is not sufficient to satisfy the needs of the analysis. In these cases, a classification model based on one dataset can be investigated as a possible proxy for another closely related domain’s dataset. If the model’s structure is sufficient to classify data from the related domain, the model can be used as a proxy tree. Such a proxy tree also provides an alternative characterization of the related domain. Just as important, if the original model does not successfully classify the related domain data the domains are not as closely related as believed. This paper presents a methodology for evaluating datasets as proxies along with three cases that demonstrate the methodology and the three types of results. Classification Trees as Proxies

Caveman Executive Leadership: Evolved Leadership Preferences and Biological Sex

There is increasing recognition that human behavior in general, and business behavior in particular, is subject to social and biological effects. This research investigates the well-known but unsatisfactorily explained advantage that males have over females in obtaining executive leadership. We argue that environmental-cultural explanations are incomplete and propose an explanation that adds to the emerging evidence that behavior is subject to evolutionary effects. More specifically, we take the perspective of evolutionary psychology in this research. The explanation presented here is grounded in the evolutionary theory of natural selection such that a psychological adaptation adaptation for a preference for male leaders evolved to promote individual survivability in the violent ancestral history of humans. We present convergent interdisciplinary findings as well as supporting evidence from three studies with distinct research designs, domains, and perspectives of analysis to strengthen the validity of our argument. In all, this research offers a more complete theoretical explanation for male predominance in executive leadership and provides an additional theoretical approach to the investigation of modern biases that have been costly to the business community.

Perceptions of political leaders

Abstract. Partisan identification is a fundamental force in individual and mass political behavior around the world. Informed by scholarship on human sociality, coalitional psychology, and group behavior, this research argues that partisan identification, like many other group-based behaviors, is influenced by forces of evolution. If correct, then party identifiers should exhibit adaptive behaviors when making group-related political decisions. The authors test this assertion with citizen assessments of the relative physical formidability of competing leaders, an important adaptive factor in leader evaluations. Using original and novel data collected during the contextually different 2008 and 2012 U.S. presidential elections, as well as two distinct measures obtained during both elections, this article presents evidence that partisans overestimate the physical stature of the presidential candidate of their own party compared with the stature of the candidate of the opposition party. These findings suggest that the power of party identification on political behavior may be attributable to the fact that modern political parties address problems similar to the problems groups faced in human ancestral times.