Gregory A. Elmes

Gypsy moth invasion in North America: a quantitative analysis

The gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.), was accidentally introduced to North America in 1868 or 1869. Since that time, the range of this insect has spread to include most of the northeastern states in the US and eastern provinces of Canada. We compiled historical records of gypsy moth invasion in North America and as- sembled these data in a geographical information system (GIS). Individual US counties and Canadian census dis- tricts were used as the smallest spatial unit in this data- base. Data indicated that three distinct periods occurred during which spread rates differed: a high rate (9.45 km/ year) from 1900 to 1915, a low rate (2.82km/year) from 1916 to 1965, and a very high rate (20.78 km/year) from 1966 to 1990. Furthermore, expansion was slower (7.61 km/year) during the period of 1966-1990 in counties where the mean minimum temperature was less than 7? (C). The rate of range expansion was independently cal- culated as 2.5 km/year from estimates of r, the intrinsic rate of increase, and D, the diffusion coefficient (disper- sal magnitude) and a simple spread model. This estimate was substantially less than the empirically derived expan- sion rates. The higher observed rates of expansion may be due to human-caused movement of gypsy moth life stages which was not incorporated in estimates of D made here.

Metropolitan and Non-Metropolitan Trends in Coronary Heart Disease Mortality within Appalachia, 1980–1997

OBJECTIVES In this article, we report on metropolitan and non-metropolitan trends in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality within the Appalachian Region for the period 1980 to 1997. We hypothesized that trends in CHD mortality would be less favorable in non-metropolitan populations with diminished access to social, economic, and medical care resources at the community level. METHODS Our study population consisted of adults aged 35 years and older who resided within the 399 counties of the Appalachian Region between 1980 and 1997. We examined mortality trends for sixteen geo-demographic groups, defined by gender, age, race, and metropolitan status of county of residence. For each geo-demographic group, we calculated annual age-adjusted CHD mortality rates. Line graphs of these temporal trends were created, and log-linear regression models provided estimates of the average annual percent change in CHD mortality from 1980 to 1997. Data on social, economic, and medical care resources for metropolitan vs. non-metropolitan counties were also analyzed. RESULTS Rates of CHD mortality were consistently higher in non-metropolitan areas compared with metropolitan areas for blacks of all ages and for younger whites. CHD mortality declined among almost all geo-demographic groups, but rates of decline were slower among non-metropolitan vs. metropolitan residents, blacks vs. whites, women vs. men, and older vs. younger adults. Non-metropolitan areas had fewer socioeconomic and medical care resources than metropolitan areas in 1990. CONCLUSIONS Appalachia, particularly non-metropolitan Appalachia, needs policies and programs that will enhance both primary and secondary prevention of CHD, and help diminish racial inequalities in CHD mortality trends.

The application of GIS in urban and regional planning: a review of the North American experience

The diffusion of GIS within North American planning has occurred at a remarkable rate. Growing awareness, institutional acceptance, falling system costs and product diversity have led to a plethora of planning applications, varying in maturity and sophistication. The field is now sufficiently well established to allow meaningful trends, evaluations and directions to be reviewed. GIS applications in planning are characterized by geographical scale and the dominant influences shaping GIS utilization in planning are examined at the national, regional, trans-regional, metropolitan and neighbourhood scales. Transformations brought about by the interplay of GIS and planning are presented. Planning, and the technology which supports it, reflects the culture of the society it serves. North America is currently experiencing a revolution in the linking of computer-based Geographical Information Systems (GIS) to planning issues. This symbiotic relationship reflects the vernacular approach to urban and regional planning, and an emphasis on high-technology solutions to economic development. North America serves well as a focus for examining trends arising from these GIS-planning initiatives. The continent has a long history of GIS applications in planning and resource management dating back to the mid-1960s. The diffusion of GIS into the planning sphere has continued at a remarkable rate. This process is reasonably well documented, albeit in disparate and mostly informal sources. Growing awareness, institutional acceptance, falling system costs, product diversity, the introduction of microcomputers and the availability of PC-based GIS software have led to a plethora of planning-based applications. Given the longevity and rate of growth of GIS in planning in North America, the field is now sufficiently well established to allow meaningful trends, evaluations and directions to be reviewed. No single source is yet available that enumerates the diversity and scope of GIS applications in urban and regional planning in North America. Early studies by Dueker (1979), Tomlinson (1987) and Wellar (1975) identified major trends and impediments to the development of GIS in the planning domain. More recently, studies by Warnecke (1992), Vonderohe and Saleh (1991), Huxhold (1990), and Scholten and Stillwell (1990) have focused on the use of GIS in specific planning roles or in a non-American context. Because of the variety and extent of GIS usage at the continental scale, these assessments have necessarily been subjective and partial. Trends in software, hardware and application area have largely been interpreted on the basis of personal involvement and knowledge. The rapid spread of GIS, coupled with the diversity of planning applications, precludes any review from remaining current for long, though many trends will remain extant for some

Coal transportation: An undervalued aspect of energy modeling?

Abstract Changes in the supply of, and demand for, energy are reflected by the spatial pattern of energy flows. Review of energy modeling research indicates that while supply and demand variables are highly disaggregated, other aspects, such as transportation, are represented in more generalized form. Consistent economic and geographic scales are vital to the successful application of energy models to policy formulation and decision-making. Consistency of scale is examined between models and within models. Internal inconsistency of scale is demonstrated in two complex coal models which fail to provide sufficient detail on transportation characteristics. Since transportation characteristics are a major influence on the allocation of coal, insufficient disaggregation introduces error components that result in regional bias. Solutions may be found in improved model specification, transportation submodels, and rigorous sensitivity analysis of spatial error distribution.

The Use of Geospatial Information Technology to Advance Safer College Campuses and Communities

In this collaboration between university researchers and practitioners from two adjacent law enforcement jurisdictions, crime incidents are examined for spatio-temporal trends stretching across jurisdictional borders. The goal of the partnership is to increase the safety of students both on and off campus by identifying crime clusters which enables proactive policing efforts specifically targeted to high crime areas. The applied research confirms spatial and temporal crime clusters across a shared boundary. The implications for this partnership suggest that researchers and multiple law enforcement jurisdictions can work together to identify and solve community problems. In this chapter, background information is presented on research-practitioner partnerships, campus crime, student victimization and the Clery Act, and the goals and objectives of the collaboration. After presenting three analyses on data gathered over the first year, policing and research implications are discussed.

Local Knowledge Doesn’t Grow on Trees: Community-Integrated Geographic Information Systems and Rural Community Self-Definition

The Appalachian-Southern Africa Research and Development Collaboratory (ASARD) seeks to explore the integration of community decision-making with GIS across cultures. Combining geospatial data with local knowledge and the active participation of the community creates a Community-Integrated Geographic Information System (CIGIS) representing and valuing themes related to community and economic development. The intent is to integrate traditional GIS with the decision-making regime of local people and authorities to assist them in making informed choices and to increase local participation in land use planning, especially within economically disadvantaged communities.

Spatial aspects of the diffusion of technological innovations among American municipal governments

Abstract Examination of the spatial diffusion patterns of a sample of 43 technological innovations organized into four functional areas—fire fighting, traffic control, air pollution control, solid waste collection, and disposal—indicates the absence of systematic patterns of either rank-size or contagious diffusion of these innovations among municipal governments in the United States. Absence of these general patterns reflects an inadequate identification in existing theories of spatial diffusion processes of variables that enter into agency decisions to adopt new technologies and the inadequate identification of possible interactions among variables. In particular, attempts to model diffusion patterns based on neighborhood effect or on hierarchical relationships fail to take into account, it least for the classes of adopters and innovations studied here, polynuclear propagation and the role of intermediaries (e.g. professional associations, governmental agencies, suppliers) in communication patterns or the role of site-specific factors that determine the “suitability” or “worth” or an innovation to different potential adopters.

Developing a Spatial-Temporal Method for the Geographic Investigation of Shoeprint Evidence

Abstract:  This article examines the potential of a spatial‐temporal method for analysis of forensic shoeprint data. The large volume of shoeprint evidence recovered at crime scenes results in varied success in matching a print to a known shoe type and subsequently linking sets of matched prints to suspected offenders. Unlike DNA and fingerprint data, a major challenge is to reduce the uncertainty in linking sets of matched shoeprints to a suspected serial offender. Shoeprint data for 2004 were imported from the Greater London Metropolitan Area Bigfoot database into a geographic information system, and a spatial‐temporal algorithm developed for this project. The results show that by using distance and time constraints interactively, the number of candidate shoeprints that can implicate one or few suspects can be substantially reduced. It concludes that the use of space‐time and other ancillary information within a geographic information system can be quite helpful for forensic investigation.

Spatial Technology Applications

This chapter presents an overview of the various spatial technologies that are utilized by law enforcement agencies to document evidence for the preservation of crime scenes which can be used for further investigations or as evidence during trial. The first technology presented is remote sensing . Four of the more common types of remote sensing are discussed: aerial photography , satellite imagery , ground-penetrating radar , and thermal imaging . The chapter continues with a discussion of geographic information systems and their application for crime mapping and analysis as well as geographic profiling . A review of the innovative uses of laser scanning technologies to document crime and accident scenes concludes the discussion.

Geospatial Technologies in the Courtroom

The function of a court is to resolve disputes through a legal process. With few exceptions, the progression of a legal case will follow the strict guidelines of rules and codes developed from numerous court decisions to fairly and efficiently securing a just determination. All federal courts adhere to a flexible set of rules published in the Federal Rules of Evidence (FRE ). The FRE provides rules and definitions governing general provisions, judicial notice, presumptions, relevance , privileges, witnesses , expert witnesses , hearsay , and authentication . However, there are as yet no special rules governing the use of geospatial technologies or spatial data . From a pragmatic legal perspective, spatial data differs immensely from the traditional form of evidence. However, the power of spatial information is extremely persuasive and compelling in litigation. While the acceptance of spatial data and methods has increased in litigation, there are also several issues that merit careful consideration when using spatial data. This chapter examines key rules and court decisions that impact the potential admissibility of spatial data and technologies in a modern courtroom.