Gregory A. Kiker

Multicriteria Decision Analysis: A Comprehensive Decision Approach for Management of Contaminated Sediments

Contaminated sediments and other sites present a difficult challenge for environmental decisionmakers. They are typically slow to recover or attenuate naturally, may involve multiple regulatory agencies and stakeholder groups, and engender multiple toxicological and ecotoxicological risks. While environmental decision-making strategies over the last several decades have evolved into increasingly more sophisticated, information-intensive, and complex approaches, there remains considerable dissatisfaction among business, industry, and the public with existing management strategies. Consequently, contaminated sediments and materials are the subject of intense technology development, such as beneficial reuse or in situ treatment. However, current decision analysis approaches, such as comparative risk assessment, benefit-cost analysis, and life cycle assessment, do not offer a comprehensive approach for incorporating the varied types of information and multiple stakeholder and public views that must typically be brought to bear when new technologies are under consideration. Alternatively, multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) offers a scientifically sound decision framework for management of contaminated materials or sites where stakeholder participation is of crucial concern and criteria such as economics, environmental impacts, safety, and risk cannot be easily condensed into simple monetary expressions. This article brings together a multidisciplinary review of existing decision-making approaches at regulatory agencies in the United States and Europe and synthesizes state-of-the-art research in MCDA methods applicable to the assessment of contaminated sediment management technologies. Additionally, it tests an MCDA approach for coupling expert judgment and stakeholder values in a hypothetical contaminated sediments management case study wherein MCDA is used as a tool for testing stakeholder responses to and improving expert assessment of innovative contaminated sediments technologies.

Exploring vulnerability of coastal habitats to sea level rise through global sensitivity and uncertainty analyses

Changes in coastal habitats brought about by climate change have the potential to cause population decline of shoreline dependent organisms. In particular, sea level rise associated with climate change can drastically affect wetlands and beaches which are important foraging and nesting areas of these organisms. SLAMM 5 (Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model) is widely used to simulate wetland conversion and shoreline modification for the purpose of habitat vulnerability assessment and decision making, but concerns regarding the suitability of the model due to the uncertainty involved in selecting many of the models empirical input parameters have been expressed. This paper applies a generic evaluation framework consisting of a state-of-the-art screening and variance-based global sensitivity and uncertainty analyses to simulate changes in the coastal habitats of the barrier island in Eglin Air Force Base, Florida in order to: (1) identify the important input factors and processes that control SLAMM 5s output uncertainty; (2) quantify SLAMM 5s global output uncertainty and apportion it to the direct contributions and interactions of the important input factors; and (3) evaluate this new methodology to explore the potential fate of the coastal habitats of the study area. Results showed that four input factors (DEM vertical error for the lower elevation range, historic trend of sea level rise, accretion, and sedimentation rates) controlled 88-91% of SLAMM 5s output variance in predicting changes in the beach habitat of Eglin Air Force Base. The most dominant processes governing the fate of the coastline of the study area were inundation (i.e. reduction in elevation due to sea level rise) and accretion/sedimentation. Interestingly, for lower elevation habitats (salt marsh, tidal flat, and beach), results showed possible gain or loss of these habitats depending on the relative strength of these processes resulting from the combination of input factors within their proposed uncertainty ranges. Higher-elevation habitats (swamps and inland fresh marsh) showed decrease in area over 100 years of simulation. These findings are important to implement managerial schemes in the area to protect threatened Plover birds (Charadrius sp.) communities. This generic model evaluation framework is model-independent and can be used to evaluate a wide range of environmental models.

Application of multicriteria decision analysis tools to two contaminated sediment case studies

Abstract Environmental decision making is becoming increasingly more information intensive and complex. Our previous work shows that multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) tools offer a scientifically sound decision analytical framework for environmental management, in general, and specifically for selecting optimal sediment management alternatives. Integration of MCDA into risk assessment and sediment management may require linkage of different models and software platforms whose results may lead to somewhat different conclusions. This paper illustrates the application of 3 different MCDA methods in 2 case studies involving contaminated sediment management. These case studies are based on real sediment management problems experienced by the US Army Corps of Engineers and other stakeholders in New York/New Jersey Harbor, USA, and the Cocheco River Superfund Site in New Hampshire, USA. Our analysis shows that application of 3 different MCDA tools points to similar management solutions no matter which tool is applied. MCDA tools and approaches were constructively used to elicit the strengths and weaknesses of each method when solving the problem.

LOADSS: A GIS-based decision support system for regional environmental planning☆

Abstract LOADSS (Lake Okeechobee Agricultural Decision Support System) was developed to help address problems created by phosphorus runoff into Lake Okeechobee. It was designed to allow regional planners to alter land uses and management practices in the Lake Okeechobee basin and then view the environmental and economic effects resulting from the changes. The Lake Okeechobee basin coverage incorporates information about land uses, soil associations, weather regions, management practices, hydrologic features and political boundaries for approximately 0.6 million ha of land and consists of close to 7000 polygons. The system has the capability to generate reports and maps concerning regional land attributes, call external hydrologic simulation models as well as display historical water quality and quantity sampling station data. LOADSS runs on SUN SPARC stations using the ARC/INFO GIS software and requires 80 mb of hard disk storage.

Integrating Comparative Risk Assessment with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis to Manage Contaminated Sediments: An Example for the New York/New Jersey Harbor

ABSTRACT Current environmental challenges involve complex assessment and analysis of tradeoffs among differing criteria, expectations, and levels of certainty. Using multi-criteria decision analysis in combination with comparative risk assessment, a systematic and transparent framework can be created to integrate different types and sources of decision-relevant information. Although examples of decision analysis abound in the literature and academic efforts, its use within the practice of risk assessment and environmental management is still being established. This article provides an example of the use of decision analysis study that builds on a previous screening-level, comparative risk assessment of contaminated sediment from the New York/New Jersey harbor area. Using multi-criteria decision analysis, we explored the effect of different criteria weights, utility functions, and cost estimates on the ranking of seven contaminated sediment management alternatives. Values used in weighting decision criteria were surveyed from two interaction sessions with sediment management professionals.

Enhanced Adaptive Management: Integrating Decision Analysis, Scenario Analysis and Environmental Modeling for the Everglades

We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find that alternatives designed to reconstruct the pre-drainage flow may have a positive ecological impact, but may also have high operational costs and only marginally contribute to meeting other objectives such as reduction of flooding. Enhanced adaptive management allows managers to guide investment in ecosystem modeling and monitoring efforts through scenario and value of information analyses to support optimal restoration strategies in the face of uncertain and changing information.

Identifying drivers that influence the spatial distribution of woody vegetation in Kruger National Park, South Africa

Understanding the dynamics of woody tree species distribution in savanna systems remains a challenge despite considerable attention the topic has received in recent years. Disturbances such as fire and elephant effects on woody vegetation are well documented, yet the influence of these factors on emerging landscape-scale patterns such as height and species distributions continue to be poorly understood. The aim of this study was to identify how a suite of environmental variables (rainfall, temperature, aspect, slope, geology, fire frequency and elephant density) and their relative contributions, may affect woody species distribution in relation to structural height classes. Using the Maximum Entropy model for three structural height classes of the fifteen most frequently occurring woody species in the Kruger National Park (South Africa), the environmental variables best explaining each species distribution were identified. The three structural classes were defined to capture canopy height categories of sp...

Do Tropical Cyclones Shape Shorebird Habitat Patterns? Biogeoclimatology of Snowy Plovers in Florida

Background The Gulf coastal ecosystems in Florida are foci of the highest species richness of imperiled shoreline dependent birds in the USA. However environmental processes that affect their macroecological patterns, like occupancy and abundance, are not well unraveled. In Florida the Snowy Plover (Charadrius alexandrinus nivosus) is resident along northern and western white sandy estuarine/ocean beaches and is considered a state-threatened species. Methodology/Principal Findings Here we show that favorable nesting areas along the Florida Gulf coastline are located in regions impacted relatively more frequently by tropical cyclones. The odds of Snowy Plover nesting in these areas during the spring following a tropical cyclone impact are seven times higher compared to the odds during the spring following a season without a cyclone. The only intensity of a tropical cyclone does not appear to be a significant factor affecting breeding populations. Conclusions/Significance Nevertheless a future climate scenario featuring fewer, but more extreme cyclones could result in a decrease in the breeding Snowy Plover population and its breeding range. This is because the spatio-temporal frequency of cyclone events was found to significantly affect nest abundance. Due to the similar geographic range and habitat suitability, and no decrease in nest abundance of other shorebirds in Florida after the cyclone season, our results suggest a common bioclimatic feedback between shorebird abundance and tropical cyclones in breeding areas which are affected by cyclones.

Integrated Ecological Modeling and Decision Analysis Within the Everglades Landscape

Planning for complex ecosystem restoration projects involves integrating ecological modeling with analysis of performance trade-offs among restoration alternatives. The authors used the Everglades Landscape Model and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis to explore the effect of simulated ecosystem performance, risk preferences, and criteria weights on the ranking of three alternatives to restoring overland sheet flow in the Everglades. The ecological model outputs included both hydrologic and water quality criteria. Results were scored in the decision analysis framework, highlighting the trade-offs between hydrologic restoration and water quality constraints. Given equal weighting of performance measures, the alternative with more homogenous sheet flow was preferred over other alternatives, despite evidence of some localized eutrophication risk.

GPS Monitoring of Cattle Location Near Water Features in South Florida

A study was conducted to quantify the amount of time spent by grazing cattle near or in water locations (wetlands, ditches, and water troughs) across seasons in a cow-calf production ranch in south Florida. Prolonged hot summers in these regions can cause physiological heat stress in cattle and drive them into water-filled ditches and wetlands in order to cool down. Because of the numerous ranches in the region, it is perceived that this activity is contributing towards the phosphorus loading into the receiving water body, Lake Okeechobee. Cattle position data was monitored continuously using GPS collars. Data was recorded every 15 min during a 5-day period in spring (March), summer (June), fall (late August), and winter (November or December) from 2001 to 2003. The average percentage of daily time spent by cattle near/in water locations (water trough, wetland, and ditch) during the warm season (summer + fall) was 11.45 ± 0.39% and 6.09 ± 0.69% during the cool season (winter + spring). Overall, the cattle utilized water-filled features somewhat more during warm seasons, with some exceptions under higher temperatures found in southern Florida winters. Temporal, sub-daily analysis of the use of water troughs revealed very little usage during early morning and night and increased use as the day progressed. Similar analysis of wetlands use showed greater utilization during late morning and nights in the cool season. Utilization of ditches was fairly consistent throughout all years; more during warm seasons and less during cool. Current hydrological modeling systems that are actively used to represent the nutrient-enriched agricultural enterprises in south Florida lack the ability to comprehensively represent the dynamics of the animal-plant-soil system. This study will provide crucial information for model developers who may utilize these results to develop more detailed hydrological and nutrient loading models.