Gregory Acs

Educational Attainment, Industrial Structure, and Male Earnings through the 1980s.

Between 1979 and 1989, mens average earnings declined and the percentage of men with low earnings increased. Much of the decline in mean earnings and the increased incidence of low earnings can be accounted for by changes in the returns to education, experience, and industry of employment-changes that we attribute to demand-side factors, such as changes in technology. Shifts in industrial employment patterns had a relatively small effect on mean earnings and low earnings rates. However, their effects were larger among blacks than among whites and Hispanics. We also find that educational upgrading over the decade kept mean earnings from falling even further and helped to hold down the growth of low earnings, especially among blacks.

The effect of disabilities on exits from AFDC

The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA) of 1996 replaces AFDC, the largest means-tested cast assistance program for low-income families, with the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) block grant. Unlike AFDC, assistance under TANF is limited to five years in a lifetime, and states are required to move families from the assistance rolls into jobs. But not all adult welfare recipients can easily move to work because either they themselves are disabled or they have a child with disabilities requiring special care. This article examines the extent and impact of disability among families on AFDC to gain insight into the potential impact of changes under TANF. Using data from the 1990 Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), we find that in nearly 30 percent of the families on AFDC either the mother or child has a disability. Furthermore, we find that having a disability significantly lowers the probability that a woman leaves AFDC for work but not for other reasons, such as a change in living arrangements. Finally, we find little evidence that having a child with a disability affects the probability of leaving AFDC for any reason.