Gregory Brinkman

Impacts of wind and solar on emissions and wear and tear of fossil-fueled generators

High penetrations of wind and solar power will impact the operations of the conventional generators on the power system. Regional integration studies have shown that wind and solar may cause fossil-fueled generators to cycle on and off and load follow more frequently and potentially more rapidly. Increased cycling, deeper load following, and rapid ramping may result in wear and tear impacts on fossil-fueled generators that lead to increased capital and maintenance costs, increased equivalent forced outage rates, and degraded performance over time. Heat rates and emissions from fossil-fueled generators may be higher during cycling and ramping than during steady-state operation. Many wind and solar integration studies have not taken these increased cost and emissions impacts into account because data have not been available. This analysis considers the cost and emissions impacts of cycling and ramping of fossil-fueled generation to refine assessments of wind and solar impacts on the power system.

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 1. Exploration of High-Penetration Renewable Electricity Futures

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a future through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

Effects of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles on Ozone Concentrations in Colorado

This study explores how ozone concentrations in the Denver, CO area might have been different if plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) had replaced light duty gasoline vehicles in summer 2006. A unit commitment and dispatch model was used to estimate the charging patterns of PHEVs and dispatch power plants to meet electricity demand. Emission changes were estimated based on gasoline displacement and the emission characteristics of the power plants providing additional electricity. The Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (CAMx) was used to simulate the effects of these emissions changes on ozone concentrations. Natural gas units provided most of the electricity used for charging PHEVs in the scenarios considered. With 100% PHEV penetration, nitrogen oxide (NO(x)) emissions were reduced by 27 tons per day (tpd) from a fleet of 1.7 million vehicles and were increased by 3 tpd from power plants; VOC emissions were reduced by 57 tpd. These emission changes reduced modeled peak 8-h average ozone concentrations by approximately 2-3 ppb on most days. Ozone concentration increases were modeled for small areas near central Denver. Future research is needed to forecast when significant PHEV penetration may occur and to anticipate characteristics of the corresponding power plant and vehicle fleets.

Low Carbon Grid Study: Analysis of a 50% Emission Reduction in California

The California 2030 Low Carbon Grid Study (LCGS) analyzes the grid impacts of a variety of scenarios that achieve 50% carbon emission reductions from Californias electric power sector. Impacts are characterized based on several key operational and economic metrics, including production costs, emissions, curtailment, and impacts on the operation of gas generation and imports. The modeling results indicate that achieving a low-carbon grid (with emissions 50% below 2012 levels) is possible by 2030 with relatively limited curtailment (less than 1%) if institutional frameworks are flexible. Less flexible institutional frameworks and a less diverse generation portfolio could lead to higher curtailment (up to 10%), operational costs (up to

Emissions implications of future natural gas production and use in the U.S. and in the Rocky Mountain region.

800 million higher), and carbon emissions (up to 14% higher).

Renewable Electricity Futures Study. Volume 4: Bulk Electric Power Systems. Operations and Transmission Planning

Enhanced prospects for natural gas production raise questions about the balance of impacts on air quality, as increased emissions from production activities are considered alongside the reductions expected when natural gas is burned in place of other fossil fuels. This study explores how trends in natural gas production over the coming decades might affect emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) for the United States and its Rocky Mountain region. The MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) energy system optimization model is used with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agencys nine-region database to compare scenarios for natural gas supply and demand, constraints on the electricity generation mix, and GHG emissions fees. Through 2050, total energy system GHG emissions show little response to natural gas supply assumptions, due to offsetting changes across sectors. Policy-driven constraints or emissions fees are needed to achieve net reductions. In most scenarios, wind is a less expensive source of new electricity supplies in the Rocky Mountain region than natural gas. U.S. NOx emissions decline in all the scenarios considered. Increased VOC emissions from natural gas production offset part of the anticipated reductions from the transportation sector, especially in the Rocky Mountain region.

It's Indisputable: Five Facts About Planning and Operating Modern Power Systems

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a future through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%–90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Learn more at the RE Futures website. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures/

Impact of Market Behavior, Fleet Composition, and Ancillary Services on Revenue Sufficiency

An indisputable fact cannot be rebutted. It is supported by theory and experience. Over the past 25 years, wind and solar generation has undergone dramatic growth, resulting in a variety of experiences that model the integration of wind and solar into the planning and operation of modern electric power systems. In this article, we bring together examples from Europe, North America, and Australia to identify five indisputable facts about planning and operating modern power systems. Taken together, we hope these experiences can help build consensus among the engineering and public policy communities about the current state of wind and solar integration and also facilitate conversations about evolving future challenges.

Overgeneration from Solar Energy in California. A Field Guide to the Duck Chart

This presentation provides an overview of new and ongoing NREL research that aims to improve our understanding of reliability and revenue sufficiency challenges through modeling tools within a markets framework.