Gregory C. Wiles

Tree-ring-dated 'Little Ice Age' histories of maritime glaciers from western Prince William Sound, Alaska

Tree-ring studies at 13 glacier forefields in western Prince William Sound show‘Little Ice Age’ glacial fluctuations were strongly synchronous on decadal timescales. Cross-dated glacially overrun trees at eight sites indicate ice margins advanced in the early (late twelfth through thirteenth centuries) and middle (seventeenth to early eighteenth centuries)‘Little Ice Age’. Tree-ring dates of 22 moraines at 13 glaciers show two main periods of stabilization. The earlier of these, in the first decades of the eighteenth century, overlaps with the second period of glaciers overrunning trees and marks culmination of this middle‘Little Ice Age’ expansion. Stabilization of moraines on nine of the study forefields in the latter part of the nineteenth century delineates a third interval of‘Little Ice Age’ glacial advance. The detailed‘Little Ice Age’ record from land-terminating glaciers in western Prince William Sound is consistent on a timescale of decades with four other tree-ring-dated glacial histories from across the northern Gulf of Alaska. This coastal northeastern Pacific glacial record reveals the structure of the‘Little Ice Age’ in the region and provides a strong basis for comparison with other proxy climate records spanning the past 1000 years.

Tropical-North Pacific Climate Linkages over the Past Four Centuries*

Analyses of instrumental data demonstrate robust linkages between decadal-scale North Pacific and tropical Indo-Pacific climatic variability. These linkages encompass common regime shifts, including the noteworthy 1976 transition in Pacific climate. However, information on Pacific decadal variability and the tropical high-latitude climate connection is limited prior to the twentieth century. Herein tree-ring analysis is employed to extend the understanding of North Pacific climatic variability and related tropical linkages over the past four centuries. To this end, a tree-ring reconstruction of the December–May North Pacific index (NPI)—an index of the atmospheric circulation related to the Aleutian low pressure cell—is presented (1600–1983). The NPI reconstruction shows evidence for the three regime shifts seen in the instrumental NPI data, and for seven events in prior centuries. It correlates significantly with both instrumental tropical climate indices and a coral-based reconstruction of an optimal tropical Indo-Pacific climate index, supporting evidence for a tropical–North Pacific link extending as far west as the western Indian Ocean. The coral-based reconstruction (1781–1993) shows the twentieth-century regime shifts evident in the instrumental NPI and instrumental tropical Indo-Pacific climate index, and three previous shifts. Changes in the strength of correlation between the reconstructions over time, and the different identified shifts in both series prior to the twentieth century, suggest a varying tropical influence on North Pacific climate, with greater influence in the twentieth century. One likely mechanism is the low-frequency variability of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its varying impact on Indo-Pacific climate.

Expansion of alpine glaciers in Pacific North America in the first millennium A.D

Radiocarbon ages and lichen-dated moraines from 17 glaciers in coastal and near- coastal British Columbia and Alaska document a widespread glacier advance during the first millennium A.D. Glaciers at several sites began advancing ca. A.D. 200-300 based on radiocarbon-dated overridden forests. The advance is centered on A.D. 400-700, when glaciers along an ;2000 km transect of the Pacific North American cordillera overrode forests, impounded lakes, and deposited moraines. The synchroneity of this glacier ad- vance and inferred cooling over a large area suggest a regional climate forcing and, to- gether with other proxy evidence for late Holocene environmental change during the Me- dieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age, provide support for millennial-scale climate variability in the North Pacific region.

Late Holocene glacier fluctuations in the Wrangell Mountains, Alaska

Four intervals of late Holocene glacier advance are recognized from study of nine valley glaciers in the Wrangell and westernmost St. Elias Mountains of Alaska. The oldest glacial advance is recognized at the Nabesna and Barnard Glaciers where five radiocarbon ages suggest advance as early as 2700 cal. (calibrated) yr B.P. Two additional radiocarbon-dated advances are centered on cal. yr A.D. 300 and the beginning of the Little Ice Age about A.D. 1200. The best-documented Little Ice Age advances occurred during the mid-1600s through the 1800s and are recognized at all nine glaciers. These latter advances are dated by tree rings of trees overrun by glaciers in five glacier valley, by 17 radiocarbon dates, and by tree-ring and lichen ages from 20 moraines that were deposited during the culmination of these advances. The glacial chronology is broadly similar to chronologies from adjoining Alaskan mountain ranges, at both coastal and interior sites for the past 3000 yr. There are, however, differences in timing of advances during the first millennium A.D. The glacial history for the past 2000 yr is also consistent with temperature-sensitive proxy records from interior Alaska and Yukon Territory.

A 1119-year tree-ring-width chronology from western Prince William Sound, southern Alaska

Living and subfossil trees from glacier forefields are used to develop a 1119-year-long tree-ringwidth chronology. Strong cross-dating among ring-width series from sites up to 60 km apart and an analysis of sample homogeneity support combination of all samples into a single, regional composite chronology. Comparison with instrumental climate data indicates May through July temperatures of the growth year are the primary control on ring-widths. Multidecadal-length warm periods in western Prince William Sound during the past 800 years were centred on AD 1300, 1440 and possibly 1820. Multidecadal-length cool periods were centred on AD 1400, 1660 and 1870. This is the first tree-ring chronology from the Gulf of Alaska region to extend into the first millennium AD.

Surface air temperature variability reconstructed with tree rings for the Gulf of Alaska over the past 1200 years

A 1200-year-long tree-ring width record from living and subfossil mountain hemlock wood is used to reconstruct February through August temperatures for the Gulf of Alaska, providing a record of past climate variability for the Northeast Pacific sector that captures interannual to centennial timescales. The moderate elevation at the tree-ring sites has allowed these trees to retain their temperature signal without evidence of the so-called divergence effect, or underestimation of tree-ring inferred temperature trends, which is observed at many northern latitude forest locations. This ‘divergence-free’ reconstruction reveals centennial trends that include a warm interval centered on ad 950 for coastal Alaska that occurs around the time of the ‘Medieval Warm Period’, a warming that is only rivaled by recent decades. Spectral analysis of this reconstruction supports the centennial pacing identified as a 170–220-year cadence consistent with solar variability. On the decadal to bidecadal scale, the reconstruction reveals ~10- and 18-year cycles, which have been observed elsewhere in climate records for western North America and are linked to solar and lunar tidal forcing, respectively. Temperature minima that occur at ad 969–970 and 1698–1700 correspond with the timing of major volcanic events. This tree-ring reconstruction supports centennial modes of solar forcing as a driver of surface air temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska, with lunar tidal, solar variability, internal variability, and volcanism, impacting climate on annual to decadal timescales.

Holocene history of Hubbard Glacier in Yakutat Bay and Russell Fiord, southern Alaska

Stratigraphic and geomorphic data defined by radiocarbon ages, tree-ring dates, and historical observations provide evidence of three major Holocene expansions of Hubbard Glacier. Early in each advance the Hubbard Glacier margin blocked Russell Fiord to create Russell lake, raising base level and causing stream beds and fan deltas throughout the Russell drainage basin to aggrade. Each Hubbard Glacier expansion continued with an ice lobe advancing through Disenchantment and Yakutat Bays in the west, and an eastern lobe advancing into Russell Fiord. The earlier two Holocene expansions were, respectively, under way at 7690 and 5600 calibrated yr B.P., and each advance culminated more than 1 k.y. later. The late Holocene advance was under way by 3100 yr ago and reached ∼13 km farther south in Russell Fiord than the preceding two expansions. Late Holocene deglaciation of Yakutat and Disenchantment Bays was complete before A.D. 1791; Nunatak Glacier flowing from neves east of Russell Fiord became the primary ice source to the Russell Fiord lobe at or before this date. Ice retreat from the southern end of Russell Fiord began in the late eighteenth century and the penultimate Russell lake drained ca. A.D. 1860. The relatively slow advances and more rapid retreats of Hubbard Glacier are consistent with the model of the iceberg-calving glacier cycle. Hubbard Glacier is currently advancing and will likely reestablish Russell lake in the near future, affecting local fisheries. However, glacier lobes are unlikely to reach the area of the town of Yakutat, built on late Holocene glacial deposits, in the next 1 k.y.

North Pacific sea surface temperatures: Past variations inferred from tree rings

March-August sea surface temperatures (SST) are reconstructed for the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) from 1750-1983 based on tree-ring data from coastal and south-central Alaska and the Pacific Northwest. Some of the trends resemble those documented in other northern instrumental and proxy records, including cooler SSTs in the early and middle 1800s, during the Little Ice Age. There is overall warming in this century, including a positive trend from the mid-1970s to 1980s, following cooler 1960s-1970s. The twentieth century warming exceeds maxima in the reconstructed SSTs back to AD 1750 and is consistent with other evidence for unusual Northern Hemisphere warming. Changes over the period of recorded North Pacific SST have been linked to a pattern of variability known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Maps comparing the reconstruction to the North Pacific SST field and other analyses suggest that it may reflect variations related to the PDO over several centuries.

A Revised and Extended Holocene Glacial History of Icy Bay, Southern Alaska, U.S.A

Abstract Tidewater glaciers have coalesced to advance through Icy Bay, Alaska, three times during the past 3800 yr. Radiocarbon ages show that the first of these expansions was underway by 3750 cal yr B.P. and culminated at the outer coast between 3505 and 3245 cal yr B.P. Subsequent recession and readvance brought the ice margin back to the outer coast by 1525 cal yr B.P. (cal a.d. 425) where it remained for about 650 yr before retreating. Tree-ring cross-dates of glacially killed trees show that the most recent ice advance was underway through the inner bay by the a.d. 1640s and reached into the outer bay in the 1810s. Historical data support ice expansion through the outer bay in the early 19th century and show a late 19th century maximum prior to 20th century retreat. These results are a significant revision and extension of previous studies of the Holocene glacial history of Icy Bay. Average advance rates for the most recent expansion were typical of modern tidewater glaciers in the inner bay but much faster in the outer bay; shallow water here may have been important to this latter phase of unusually rapid advance.

Dendroclimatology from Regional to Continental Scales: Understanding Regional Processes to Reconstruct Large-Scale Climatic Variations Across the Western Americas

Common patterns of climatic variability across the Western Americas are modulated by tropical and extra-tropical oscillatory modes operating at different temporal scales. Interannual climatic variations in the tropics and subtropics of the Western Americas are largely regulated by El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), whereas decadal-scale variations are induced by long-term Pacific modes of climate variability such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). At higher latitudes, climate variations are dominated by oscillations in the Annular Modes (the Arctic and Antarctic Oscillations) which show both interannual and longer-scale temporal oscillations. Here we use a recently-developed network of tree-ring chronologies to document past climatic variations along the length of the Western Cordilleras. The local and regional characterization of the relationships between climate and tree-growth provide the basis to compare climatic variations in temperature- and precipitation-sensitive records in the Western Americas over the past 3–4 centuries. Upper-elevation records from tree-ring sites in the Gulf of Alaska and Patagonia reveal the occurrence of concurrent decade-scale oscillations in temperature during the last 400 years modulated by PDO. The most recent fluctuation from the cold- to the warm-phase of the PDO in the mid 1970s induced marked changes in tree growth in most extratropical temperature-sensitive chronologies in the Western Cordilleras of both Hemispheres. Common patterns of interannual variations in tree-ring chronologies from the relatively-dry subtropics in western North and South America are largely modulated by ENSO. We used an independent reconstruction of Nino-3 sea surface temperature (SST) to document relationships to tree growth in the southwestern US, the Bolivian Altiplano and Central Chile and also to show strong correlations between these regions. These results further document the strong influence of SSTs in the tropical Pacific as a common forcing of precipitation variations in the subtropical Western America during the past 3–4 centuries. Common patterns of interdecadal or longer-scale variability in tree-ring chronologies from the subarctic and subantarctic regions also suggest common forcings for the annular modes of high-latitude climate variability. A clear separation of the relative influence of tropical versus high-latitude modes of variability is currently difficult to establish: discriminating between tropical and extra-tropical influences on tree growth still remains elusive, particularly in subtropical and temperate regions along our transect. We still need independent reconstructions of tropical and polar modes of climate variability to gain insight into past forcing interactions and the combined effect on climates of the Western Americas. Finally, we also include a series of brief examples (as ‘boxes’) illustrating some of the major regional developments in dendrochronology over this global transect in the last 10 years.