Gregory E. McAvoy

Stability and Change: The Time Varying Impact of Economic and Foreign Policy Evaluations on Presidential Approval

Most researchers studying presidential approval with time series analysis assume that foreign and economic policy have a time-invariant weight in citizens’ judgments of presidential performance. However, those studying presidential approval in cross-sectional analysis find that the weight of foreign and economic policy on job performance fluctuates as news about these issues changes. These competing views can be incorporated into a model of rational learning that makes it possible to test whether the public weighs foreign and economic policy differently over time in its evaluation of the president. The analysis presented here shows that foreign and economic policy exhibit different patterns in their relationship to overall approval—economic policy has a consistent impact over time, while foreign policy ebbs and flows.

Predictions of public opinion on the spread of AIDS: Introduction of new computer methodologies

Frequently, dynamic analyses of public opinion cannot be performed because of incomplete polling. This problem is clearly evident for Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS). Thus, to overcome this limitation, the present paper demonstrates the usefulness of a new methodology whereby opinion (e.g., the spread of AIDS) can be estimated using the mathematical model of ideodynamics. As input, the model uses information in the mass media scored by computer, using the technique of successive filtrations. Such opinion computations can be made over any period of time, however long or short, so long as the mass media provide the major information about the issue.