Gregory J. M. Rickbeil

A new, high-resolution global mass coral bleaching database

Episodes of mass coral bleaching have been reported in recent decades and have raised concerns about the future of coral reefs on a warming planet. Despite the efforts to enhance and coordinate coral reef monitoring within and across countries, our knowledge of the geographic extent of mass coral bleaching over the past few decades is incomplete. Existing databases, like ReefBase, are limited by the voluntary nature of contributions, geographical biases in data collection, and the variations in the spatial scale of bleaching reports. In this study, we have developed the first-ever gridded, global-scale historical coral bleaching database. First, we conducted a targeted search for bleaching reports not included in ReefBase by personally contacting scientists and divers conducting monitoring in under-reported locations and by extracting data from the literature. This search increased the number of observed bleaching reports by 79%, from 4146 to 7429. Second, we employed spatial interpolation techniques to develop annual 0.04° × 0.04° latitude-longitude global maps of the probability that bleaching occurred for 1985 through 2010. Initial results indicate that the area of coral reefs with a more likely than not (>50%) or likely (>66%) probability of bleaching was eight times higher in the second half of the assessed time period, after the 1997/1998 El Niño. The results also indicate that annual maximum Degree Heating Weeks, a measure of thermal stress, for coral reefs with a high probability of bleaching increased over time. The database will help the scientific community more accurately assess the change in the frequency of mass coral bleaching events, validate methods of predicting mass coral bleaching, and test whether coral reefs are adjusting to rising ocean temperatures.

Predicting post-fire canopy mortality in the boreal forest from dNBR derived from time series of Landsat data

Regulatory and certification agencies need historical fire pattern information across the Canadian boreal forest to support natural disturbance-based management. Landsat-derived spectral indices have been used extensively to map burn severity in North America. However, satellite-derived burn severity is difficult to define and quantify, and relies heavily on ground truth data for validation, which hinders fire pattern analysis over broad scales. It is therefore critical to translate burn severity estimates into more quantifiable measurements of post-fire conditions and to provide more cost-effective methods to derive validation data. We assessed the degree to which Landsat-derived indices and ancillary data can be used to classify canopy mortality for 10 fires in the boreal forest of Alberta and Saskatchewan, Canada. Models based on two and three mortality classes had overall accuracies of 91 and 72% respectively. The three-level classification has more utility for resource management, with improved accuracy at predicting unburned and complete canopy mortality classes (93 and 66%), but is relatively inaccurate for the partial mortality class (56%). The results presented here can be used to assess the suitability of different canopy mortality models for forest fire management goals, to help provide objective, consistent and cost-effective results to analyse historical fire patterns across the Canadian boreal forest.

Disentangling vegetation and climate as drivers of Australian vertebrate richness

Determining drivers of species richness is recognised as highly complex, involving many synergies and interactions. We examine the utility of newly available remote sensing representations of vegetation productivity and vegetation structure to examine drivers of species richness at continental and regional scales. We related richness estimates derived from stacked species distribution models for birds, mammals, amphibians, and reptiles to estimates of actual and potential evapotranspiration (AET and PET), forest structure, and forest productivity across Australia as a whole as well as by bioclimatic zones. We used structural equation modeling to partition correlations between climate energy and vegetation attributes and their subsequent associations with species richness. Continentally, vertebrate richness patterns were strongly related to patterns of energy availability. Richness of amphibians, mammals, and birds were positively associated with AET. However, reptile richness was most strongly associated with PET. Regionally, forest structure and productivity associations with bird, mammal, and amphibian richness were strongest. Again, reptile richness associated most strongly with PET. Our results suggest that a hierarchy of drivers of broad‐scale vertebrate richness patterns exist (reptiles excluded): 1) climate energy is most important at the continental scale; next, 2) vegetation productivity and vegetation structure are most important at the regional scale; except 3) at low extremes of climate energy when energy becomes limiting.

Estimating changes in lichen mat volume through time and related effects on barren ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) movement

Lichens form a critical portion of barren ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) diets, especially during winter months. Here, we assess lichen mat volume across five herd ranges in the Northwest Territories and Nunavut, Canada, using newly developed composite Landsat imagery. The lichen volume estimator (LVE) was adapted for use across 700 000 km2 of barren ground caribou habitat annually from 1984–2012. We subsequently assessed how LVE changed temporally throughout the time series for each pixel using Theil-Sen’s slopes, and spatially by assessing whether slope values were centered in local clusters of similar values. Additionally, we assessed how LVE estimates resulted in changes in barren ground caribou movement rates using an extensive telemetry data set from 2006–2011. The Ahiak/Beverly herd had the largest overall increase in LVE (median = 0.033), while the more western herds had the least (median slopes below zero in all cases). LVE slope pixels were arranged in significant clusters across the study area, with the Cape Bathurst, Bathurst, and Bluenose East herds having the most significant clusters of negative slopes (more than 20% of vegetated land in each case). The Ahiak/Beverly and Bluenose West had the most significant positive clusters (16.3% and 18.5% of vegetated land respectively). Barren ground caribou displayed complex reactions to changing lichen conditions depending on season; the majority of detected associations with movement data agreed with current understanding of barren ground caribou foraging behavior (the exception was an increase in movement velocity at high lichen volume estimates in Fall). The temporal assessment of LVE identified areas where shifts in ecological conditions may have resulted in changing lichen mat conditions, while assessing the slope estimates for clustering identified zones beyond the pixel scale where forage conditions may be changing. Lichen volume estimates associated with barren ground caribou movement metrics in an expected manner and, as such, show value for future habitat assessments.