Gregory W. Characklis

Panta Rhei-Everything Flows: Change in hydrology and society-The IAHS Scientific Decade 2013-2022

Abstract The new Scientific Decade 2013–2022 of IAHS, entitled “Panta Rhei—Everything Flows”, is dedicated to research activities on change in hydrology and society. The purpose of Panta Rhei is to reach an improved interpretation of the processes governing the water cycle by focusing on their changing dynamics in connection with rapidly changing human systems. The practical aim is to improve our capability to make predictions of water resources dynamics to support sustainable societal development in a changing environment. The concept implies a focus on hydrological systems as a changing interface between environment and society, whose dynamics are essential to determine water security, human safety and development, and to set priorities for environmental management. The Scientific Decade 2013–2022 will devise innovative theoretical blueprints for the representation of processes including change and will focus on advanced monitoring and data analysis techniques. Interdisciplinarity will be sought by increased efforts to connect with the socio-economic sciences and geosciences in general. This paper presents a summary of the Science Plan of Panta Rhei, its targets, research questions and expected outcomes. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz Citation Montanari, A., Young, G., Savenije, H.H.G., Hughes, D., Wagener, T., Ren, L.L., Koutsoyiannis, D., Cudennec, C., Toth, E., Grimaldi, S., Blöschl, G., Sivapalan, M., Beven, K., Gupta, H., Hipsey, M., Schaefli, B., Arheimer, B., Boegh, E., Schymanski, S.J., Di Baldassarre, G., Yu, B., Hubert, P., Huang, Y., Schumann, A., Post, D., Srinivasan, V., Harman, C., Thompson, S., Rogger, M., Viglione, A., McMillan, H., Characklis, G., Pang, Z., and Belyaev, V., 2013. “Panta Rhei—Everything Flows”: Change in hydrology and society—The IAHS Scientific Decade 2013–2022. Hydrological Sciences Journal. 58 (6) 1256–1275.

Improving the ability of a water market to efficiently manage drought

Some water markets maintain institutional elements that provide allocative advantages to specified water users. In the Lower Rio Grande Valley, water rights are designated as either municipal or agricultural (irrigation), with certain prioritization advantages afforded to municipal accounts. While sales of rights between municipalities and irrigators are allowed, the priority disparity results in a prohibition on leasing between sectors. Concern over meeting future urban demand has led municipalities to purchase rights well in excess of current needs. The inability to lease municipal water to irrigators removes a significant and growing fraction of available water from the market. The additional flexibility provided by leasing provides a valuable tool for managing seasonal drought. In this analysis the justification for prioritized municipal water is investigated. Results indicate that the added security municipalities may derive from higher prioritization during drought is accompanied by economic inefficiencies in regional water allocation. It is argued that eliminating municipal protection and the consequent allowance of intersectoralleasing would contribute to regional well-being at small cost to municipal water users.

The future of water resources systems analysis: Toward a scientific framework for sustainable water management

This paper presents a short history of water resources systems analysis from its beginnings in the Harvard Water Program, through its continuing evolution toward a general field of water resources systems science. Current systems analysis practice is widespread and addresses the most challenging water issues of our times, including water scarcity and drought, climate change, providing water for food and energy production, decision making amid competing objectives, and bringing economic incentives to bear on water use. The emergence of public recognition and concern for the state of water resources provides an opportune moment for the field to reorient to meet the complex, interdependent, interdisciplinary, and global nature of todays water challenges. At present, water resources systems analysis is limited by low scientific and academic visibility relative to its influence in practice and bridled by localized findings that are difficult to generalize. The evident success of water resource systems analysis in practice (which is set out in this paper) needs in future to be strengthened by substantiating the field as the science of water resources that seeks to predict the water resources variables and outcomes that are important to governments, industries, and the public the world over. Doing so promotes the scientific credibility of the field, provides understanding of the state of water resources and furnishes the basis for predicting the impacts of our water choices.

Comparing the partitioning behavior of Giardia and Cryptosporidium with that of indicator organisms in stormwater runoff

Microbial association with particles can significantly affect the fate and transport characteristics of microbes in aquatic systems as particle-associated organisms will be less mobile in the environment than their free phase (i.e. unattached) counterparts. As such, similarities or dissimilarities in the partitioning behavior of indicator organisms and pathogens may have an impact on the suitability of a particular indicator to act as a surrogate for a pathogen. This research analyzed the partitioning behavior of two pathogens (Cryptosporidium, Giardia) and several common indicator organisms (fecal coliform, Escherichia coli, Enterococci, Clostridium perfringens spores, and coliphage) in natural waters under both dry and wet weather conditions. Samples were taken from several streams in two distinct sampling phases: (i) single grab samples; and (ii) intrastorm samples obtained throughout the duration of four storms. Partitioning behavior varied by microbial type, with 15-30% of bacterial indicators (fecal coliform, E. coli, and Enterococci) associated with settleable particles compared to 50% for C. perfringens spores. Both pathogens exhibited similar levels of particle association during dry weather (roughly 30%), with increased levels observed during wet weather events (Giardia to 60% and Cryptosporidium to 40%). The settling velocities of particle-associated microbes were also estimated, with those of the bacterial indicators (fecal coliform, E. coli, and Enterococci), as well as C. perfringens spores, being similar to that of the Giardia and Cryptosporidium, suggesting these organisms may exhibit similar transport behavior. With respect to intrastorm analysis, the highest microbial concentrations, in both particle-associated and free phase, occurred during the earlier stages of a storm. The total loadings of both indicators and pathogens were also estimated over the course of individual storms.

Child dysentery in the Limpopo Valley: a cohort study of water, sanitation and hygiene risk factors

The objective of this cohort study was to assess risk factors for child dysentery and watery diarrhoea. The study participants consisted of 254 children aged 12-24 months in rural South Africa and Zimbabwe in households where drinking water was collected from communal sources. The main outcome measure was the most severe diarrhoea episode: dysentery, watery diarrhoea or none. For dysentery, drinking water from sources other than standpipes had a relative risk ratio of 3.8 (95% CI 1.5-9.8). Poor source water quality, as indicated by Escherichia coli counts of 10 or more cfu 100 ml(-1), increased risk by 2.9 (1.5-5.7). There were no other significant risk factors for dysentery and none for watery diarrhoea. In this study, endemic dysentery is associated only with faecal contamination of source water. Sources other than standpipes, including improved groundwater, are of greater risk. Remediation of water quality by treatment at source or in the household will be required to achieve access to safe drinking water in accordance with the 7th Millennium Development Goal.The appropriateness of indicator organisms as surrogates for human pathogens in water quality modeling is dependent on similarities in both presence and transport behavior; however, very little data relating indicator and bacterial pathogen transport behavior in receiving waters is available. In this study observations of presence, partitioning behavior (i.e. association with settleable particles) and removal by upland detention basins were used to assess the suitability of six indicator organisms as surrogates for Salmonella spp. bacteria in an urban watershed. The fecal indicator bacteria (fecal coliforms, E. coli and enterococci) were most closely correlated with Salmonella in terms of presence and partitioning behavior (25-35% associated with settleable particles on average); however, further resolution of the variability associated with Salmonella partitioning is required. Higher removal of particle-associated microbes relative to the total microbial concentration by the detention ponds suggests that sedimentation may be an important removal mechanism. However, large fluctuations in pond performance between storm events and occasional net microbial exports in effluents indicate that these best management practices (BMPs), as currently implemented, will be unlikely to achieve water quality objectives.

Navigating financial and supply reliability tradeoffs in regional drought management portfolios

Rising development costs and growing concerns over environmental impacts have led many communities to explore more diversified water management strategies. These “portfolio”-style approaches integrate existing supply infrastructure with other options such as conservation measures or water transfers. Diversified water supply portfolios have been shown to reduce the capacity and costs required to meet demand, while also providing greater adaptability to changing hydrologic conditions. However, this additional flexibility can also cause unexpected reductions in revenue (from conservation) or increased costs (from transfers). The resulting financial instability can act as a substantial disincentive to utilities seeking to implement more innovative water management techniques. This study seeks to design portfolios that employ financial tools (e.g., contingency funds and index insurance) to reduce fluctuations in revenues and costs, allowing these strategies to achieve improved performance without sacrificing financial stability. This analysis is applied to the development of coordinated regional supply portfolios in the “Research Triangle” region of North Carolina, an area comprising four rapidly growing municipalities. The actions of each independent utility become interconnected when shared infrastructure is utilized to enable interutility transfers, requiring the evaluation of regional tradeoffs in up to five performance and financial objectives. Diversified strategies introduce significant tradeoffs between achieving reliability goals and introducing burdensome variability in annual revenues and/or costs. Financial mitigation tools can mitigate the impacts of this variability, allowing for an alternative suite of improved solutions. This analysis provides a general template for utilities seeking to navigate the tradeoffs associated with more flexible, portfolio-style management approaches.

Considering Bacteria-Sediment Associations in Microbial Fate and Transport Modeling

The development of a total maximum daily load (TMDL) for water bodies impaired by elevated microbial levels (the second leading cause of impairment nationally) requires an understanding of microbial transport processes at the watershed scale. Continuous monitoring of impaired water bodies can be expensive, and models are typically employed, but most current models represent bacteria as single discrete (“free” phase) organisms with near-neutral buoyancy, subject to first-order decay resulting primarily from predation or die-off. Studies indicate, however, that a significant fraction of microbes are associated with sediment particles, both in the water column and bed-sediments, associations that can impact microbial transport behavior and survival rates. This work incorporates considerations of microbial partitioning and its impact on survival into microbial fate and transport modeling using a well-characterized watershed. Agreement between observed and modeled instream microbial concentrations is comparabl...

Obtaining natural-like flow releases in diverted river reaches from simple riparian benefit economic models

We propose a theoretical river modeling framework for generating variable flow patterns in diverted-streams (i.e., no reservoir). Using a simple economic model and the principle of equal marginal utility in an inverse fashion we first quantify the benefit of the water that goes to the environment in relation to that of the anthropic activity. Then, we obtain exact expressions for optimal water allocation rules between the two competing uses, as well as the related statistical distributions. These rules are applied using both synthetic and observed streamflow data, to demonstrate that this approach may be useful in 1) generating more natural flow patterns in the river reach downstream of the diversion, thus reducing the ecodeficit; 2) obtaining a more enlightened economic interpretation of Minimum Flow Release (MFR) strategies, and; 3) comparing the long-term costs and benefits of variable versus MFR policies and showing the greater ecological sustainability of this new approach.

Impact of microbial partitioning on wet retention pond effectiveness.

Wet detention basins are among the most common best management practices (BMPs) being implemented as means of complying with United States Phase II storm-water rules and impending Total Maximum Daily Load limits. The effectiveness of these basins for removal of microbial contaminants, one of the most frequent causes of water quality impairment, may be significantly affected by the degree to which microbes associate with particles in storm water. Little is known with regard to where microbial-particle associations are initiated within the storm-water transport chain as flow travels from upland sources (e.g., lawns, parking lots) through storm sewer systems and BMPs and finally on to receiving waters. A similar lack of information exists on the relative concentrations of microbes at each point in the transport chain. Both of these factors have important implications for the location of wet detention basins within a watershed, as well as their anticipated effectiveness. This study tracked the concentrations ...

Evaluating the impact of alternative hydro-climate scenarios on transfer agreements: Practical improvement for generating synthetic streamflows

AbstractUtilities are increasingly considering the use of temporary water transfers to augment their supplies during periods of drought, an alternative that is often less expensive than expanding safe yields through new infrastructure. Understanding the volume and timing of transfers is important for developing contracts between buyer and seller and can be challenging due to the transient nature of drought, a situation complicated by the uncertainties associated with climate change. While transfer arrangements have received some attention in the literature, the effects of climate change on such agreements remain unexplored. This paper investigates these impacts using an improved method for developing new hydro-climate scenarios. A technique for producing stochastic time series of inflows is described, one which effectively replicates the autocorrelation present in the historic record. Unlike autoregressive (and similar) models that assume complete stationarity, the modified fractional Gaussian noise (mFGN...