Gretchen Stevens

Characterizing the epidemiological transition in Mexico: national and subnational burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors.

Background Rates of diseases and injuries and the effects of their risk factors can have substantial subnational heterogeneity, especially in middle-income countries like Mexico. Subnational analysis of the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors can improve characterization of the epidemiological transition and identify policy priorities. Methods and Findings We estimated deaths and loss of healthy life years (measured in disability-adjusted life years [DALYs]) in 2004 from a comprehensive list of diseases and injuries, and 16 major risk factors, by sex and age for Mexico and its states. Data sources included the vital statistics, national censuses, health examination surveys, and published epidemiological studies. Mortality statistics were adjusted for underreporting, misreporting of age at death, and for misclassification and incomparability of cause-of-death assignment. Nationally, noncommunicable diseases caused 75% of total deaths and 68% of total DALYs, with another 14% of deaths and 18% of DALYs caused by undernutrition and communicable, maternal, and perinatal diseases. The leading causes of death were ischemic heart disease, diabetes mellitus, cerebrovascular disease, liver cirrhosis, and road traffic injuries. High body mass index, high blood glucose, and alcohol use were the leading risk factors for disease burden, causing 5.1%, 5.0%, and 7.3% of total burden of disease, respectively. Mexico City had the lowest mortality rates (4.2 per 1,000) and the Southern region the highest (5.0 per 1,000); under-five mortality in the Southern region was nearly twice that of Mexico City. In the Southern region undernutrition and communicable, maternal, and perinatal diseases caused 23% of DALYs; in Chiapas, they caused 29% of DALYs. At the same time, the absolute rates of noncommunicable disease and injury burdens were highest in the Southern region (105 DALYs per 1,000 population versus 97 nationally for noncommunicable diseases; 22 versus 19 for injuries). Conclusions Mexico is at an advanced stage in the epidemiologic transition, with the majority of the disease and injury burden from noncommunicable diseases. A unique characteristic of the epidemiological transition in Mexico is that overweight and obesity, high blood glucose, and alcohol use are responsible for larger burden of disease than other noncommunicable disease risks such as tobacco smoking. The Southern region is least advanced in the epidemiological transition and suffers from the largest burden of ill health in all disease and injury groups.

Priority setting for health interventions in Mexico's System of Social Protection in Health

Explicit priority setting presents Mexico with the opportunity to match the pressure and complexity of an advancing epidemiological transition with evidence-based policies driven by a fundamental concern for how to make the best use of scarce resources to improve population health. The Mexican priority-setting experience describes how standardised analytical approaches to decision making, mainly burden of disease and cost-effectiveness analyses, combine with other criteria--eg, being responsive to the legitimate non-health expectations of patients and ensuring fair financing across households--to design and implement a set of three differentiated health intervention packages. This process is a key element of a wider set of reform components aimed at extending health insurance, especially to the poor. The most relevant policy implications include lessons on the use of available and proven analytical tools to set national health priorities, the usefulness of priority-setting results to guide long-term capacity development, the importance of favouring an institutionalised approach to cost-effectiveness analysis, and the need for local technical capacity strengthening as an essential step to balance health-maximising arguments and other non-health criteria in a transparent and systematic process.

The contributions of risk factor trends to cardiometabolic mortality decline in 26 industrialized countries

BACKGROUND Cardiovascular disease mortality has declined and diabetes mortality has increased in high-income countries. We estimated the potential role of trends in population body mass index, systolic blood pressure, serum total cholesterol and smoking in cardiometabolic mortality decline in 26 industrialized countries. METHODS Mortality data were from national vital statistics. Body mass index, systolic blood pressure and serum total cholesterol were from a systematic analysis of population-based data. We estimated the associations between change in cardiometabolic mortality and changes in risk factors, adjusted for change in per-capita gross domestic product. We calculated the potential contribution of risk factor trends to mortality decline. RESULTS Between 1980 and 2009, age-standardized cardiometabolic mortality declined in all 26 countries, with the annual decline between <1% in Mexico to ≈ 5% in Australia. Across the 26 countries together, risk factor trends may have accounted for ≈ 48% (men) and ≈ 40% (women) of cardiometabolic mortality decline. Risk factor trends may have accounted for >60% of decline among men and women in Finland and Switzerland, men in New Zealand and France, and women in Italy; their benefits were smallest in Mexican, Portuguese, and Japanese men and Mexican women. Risk factor trends may have slowed down mortality decline in Chilean men and women and had virtually no effect in Argentinean women. The contributions of risk factors to mortality decline seemed substantially larger among men than among women in the USA, Canada and The Netherlands. CONCLUSIONS Industrialized countries have varied widely in the extent of risk factor prevention, and its likely benefits for cardiometabolic mortality.

Definición de prioridades para las intervenciones de salud en el Sistema de Protección Social en Salud de México

La definicion explicita de prioridades en intervenciones de salud representa una oportunidad para Mexico de equilibrar la presion y la complejidad de una transicion epidemiologica avanzada, con politicas basadas en evidencias generadas por la inquietud de como optimizar el uso de los recursos escasos para mejorar la salud de la poblacion. La experiencia mexicana en la definicion de prioridades describe como los enfoques analiticos estandarizados en la toma de decisiones, principalmente los de analisis de la carga de la enfermedad y de costo-efectividad, se combinan con otros criterios -tales como dar respuesta a las expectativas legitimas no medicas de los pacientes y asegurar un financiamiento justo para los hogares-, para disenar e implementar un grupo de tres paquetes diferenciados de intervenciones de salud. Este es un proceso clave dentro de un conjunto mas amplio de elementos de reforma dirigidos a extender el aseguramiento en salud, especialmente a los pobres. Las implicaciones mas relevantes en el ambito de politicas publicas incluyen lecciones sobre el uso de las herramientas analiticas disponibles y probadas para definir prioridades nacionales de salud; la utilidad de resultados que definan prioridades para guiar el desarrollo de capacidades a largo plazo; la importancia de favorecer un enfoque para institucionalizar el analisis ex-ante de costo-efectividad; y la necesidad del fortalecimiento de la capacidad tecnica local como un elemento esencial para equilibrar los argumentos sobre maximizacion de la salud con criterios no relacionados con la salud en el marco de un ejercicio sistematico y transparente.

A Benefit-Cost Analysis of Retrofitting Diesel Vehicles with Particulate Filters in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area

In the Mexico City metropolitan area, poor air quality is a public health concern. Diesel vehicles contribute significantly to the emissions that are most harmful to health. Harmful diesel emissions can be reduced by retrofitting vehicles with one of several technologies, including diesel particulate filters. We quantified the social costs and benefits, including health benefits, of retrofitting diesel vehicles in Mexico City with catalyzed diesel particulate filters, actively regenerating diesel particulate filters, or diesel oxidation catalysts, either immediately or in 2010, when capital costs are expected to be lower. Retrofit with either type of diesel particulate filter or an oxidation catalyst is expected to provide net benefits to society beginning immediately and in 2010. At current prices, retrofit with an oxidation catalyst provides greatest net benefits. However, as capital costs decrease, retrofit with diesel particulate filters is expected to provide greater net benefits. In both scenarios, retrofit of older, dirtier vehicles that circulate only within the city provides greatest benefits, and retrofit with oxidation catalysts provides greater health benefits per dollar spent than retrofit with particulate filters. Uncertainty about the magnitude of net benefits of a retrofit program is significant. Results are most sensitive to values used to calculate benefits, such as the concentration-response coefficient, intake fraction (a measure of exposure), and the monetary value of health benefits.