Gt Pecl

Biodiversity redistribution under climate change : Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being

Consequences of shifting species distributions Climate change is causing geographical redistribution of plant and animal species globally. These distributional shifts are leading to new ecosystems and ecological communities, changes that will affect human society. Pecl et al. review these current and future impacts and assess their implications for sustainable development goals. Science, this issue p. eaai9214 BACKGROUND The success of human societies depends intimately on the living components of natural and managed systems. Although the geographical range limits of species are dynamic and fluctuate over time, climate change is impelling a universal redistribution of life on Earth. For marine, freshwater, and terrestrial species alike, the first response to changing climate is often a shift in location, to stay within preferred environmental conditions. At the cooler extremes of their distributions, species are moving poleward, whereas range limits are contracting at the warmer range edge, where temperatures are no longer tolerable. On land, species are also moving to cooler, higher elevations; in the ocean, they are moving to colder water at greater depths. Because different species respond at different rates and to varying degrees, key interactions among species are often disrupted, and new interactions develop. These idiosyncrasies can result in novel biotic communities and rapid changes in ecosystem functioning, with pervasive and sometimes unexpected consequences that propagate through and affect both biological and human communities. ADVANCES At a time when the world is anticipating unprecedented increases in human population growth and demands, the ability of natural ecosystems to deliver ecosystem services is being challenged by the largest climate-driven global redistribution of species since the Last Glacial Maximum. We demonstrate the serious consequences of this species redistribution for economic development, livelihoods, food security, human health, and culture, and we document feedbacks on climate itself. As with other impacts of climate change, species range shifts will leave “winners” and “losers” in their wake, radically reshaping the pattern of human well-being between regions and different sectors and potentially leading to substantial conflict. The pervasive impacts of changes in species distribution transcend single systems or dimensions, with feedbacks and linkages between multiple interacting scales and through whole ecosystems, inclusive of humans. We argue that the negative effects of climate change cannot be adequately anticipated or prepared for unless species responses are explicitly included in decision-making and global strategic frameworks. OUTLOOK Despite mounting evidence for the pervasive and substantial impacts of a climate-driven redistribution of Earth’s species, current global goals, policies, and international agreements fail to account for these effects. With the predicted intensification of species movements and their diverse societal and environmental impacts, awareness of species “on the move” should be incorporated into local, regional, and global assessments as standard practice. This will raise hope that future targets—whether they be global sustainability goals, plans for regional biodiversity maintenance, or local fishing or forestry harvest strategies—can be achievable and that society is prepared for a world of universal ecological change. Human society has yet to appreciate the implications of unprecedented species redistribution for life on Earth, including for human lives. Even if greenhouse gas emissions stopped today, the responses required in human systems to adapt to the most serious effects of climate-driven species redistribution would be massive. Meeting these challenges requires governance that can anticipate and adapt to changing conditions, as well as minimize negative consequences. As the global climate changes, human well-being, ecosystem function, and even climate itself are increasingly affected by the shifting geography of life. Climate-driven changes in species distributions, or range shifts, affect human well-being both directly (for example, through emerging diseases and changes in food supply) and indirectly (by degrading ecosystem health). Some range shifts even create feedbacks (positive or negative) on the climate system, altering the pace of climate change. Distributions of Earth’s species are changing at accelerating rates, increasingly driven by human-mediated climate change. Such changes are already altering the composition of ecological communities, but beyond conservation of natural systems, how and why does this matter? We review evidence that climate-driven species redistribution at regional to global scales affects ecosystem functioning, human well-being, and the dynamics of climate change itself. Production of natural resources required for food security, patterns of disease transmission, and processes of carbon sequestration are all altered by changes in species distribution. Consideration of these effects of biodiversity redistribution is critical yet lacking in most mitigation and adaptation strategies, including the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals.

Understanding octopus growth: patterns, variability and physiology

Octopuses are generally characterised by rapid non-asymptotic growth, with high individual variability. However, in situ octopus growth is not well understood. The lack of an ageing method has resulted in the majority of our understanding of octopus growth coming from laboratory studies. Despite not being applicable to cephalopods, Modal Progression Analysis (MPA) of length-frequency data is the most common method for examining in situ octopus growth. Recently, counting growth increments in beaks and vestigial shells, and quantifying lipofuscin in brain tissue, have all shown promise for the ageing octopus. Octopuses generally demonstrate two-phase growth in the laboratory, with physiological changes possibly associated with the switch between an initial rapid exponential phase and a slower power growth phase. Temperature and food ration and quality are key factors influencing the initial growth phase. Temperature, however, does not appear to affect the second phase in any consistent way, perhaps because maturity stage can influence the growth response. There may be basic differences in the mechanisms of octopus muscle growth compared with that of other cephalopods. Furthermore, higher relative maintenance energy expenditure, along with the low energy content of their prey, may account for the relatively slow growth of deep-sea octopuses compared to littoral species.

Approaches to resolving cephalopod movement and migration patterns

Cephalopod movement occurs during all phases of the life history, with the abundance and location of cephalopod populations strongly influenced by the prevalence and scale of their movements. Environmental parameters, such as sea temperature and oceanographic processes, have a large influence on movement at the various life cycle stages, particularly those of oceanic squid. Tag recapture studies are the most common way of directly examining cephalopod movement, particularly in species which are heavily fished. Electronic tags, however, are being more commonly used to track cephalopods, providing detailed small- and large-scale movement information. Chemical tagging of paralarvae through maternal transfer may prove to be a viable technique for tracking this little understood cephalopod life stage, as large numbers of individuals could be tagged at once. Numerous indirect methods can also be used to examine cephalopod movement, such as chemical analyses of the elemental and/or isotopic signatures of cephalopod hard parts, with growing interest in utilising these techniques for elucidating migration pathways, as is commonly done for fish. Geographic differences in parasite fauna have also been used to indirectly provide movement information, however, explicit movement studies require detailed information on parasite-host specificity and parasite geographic distribution, which is yet to be determined for cephalopods. Molecular genetics offers a powerful approach to estimating realised effective migration rates among populations, and continuing developments in markers and analytical techniques hold the promise of more detailed identification of migrants. To date genetic studies indicate that migration in squids is extensive but can be blocked by major oceanographic features, and in cuttlefish and octopus migration is more locally restricted than predictions from life history parameters would suggest. Satellite data showing the location of fishing lights have been increasingly used to examine the movement of squid fishing vessels, as a proxy for monitoring the movement of the squid populations themselves, allowing for the remote monitoring of oceanic species.

The potential impacts of climate change on inshore squid: biology, ecology and fisheries

Squid are important components of many marine ecosystems from the poles to the equator, serving as both important predators and prey. Novel aspects of their growth and reproduction mean that they are likely to play an important role in the changing oceans due to climate change. Virtually every facet of squid life-history examined thus far has revealed an incredible capacity in this group for life-history plasticity. The extremely fast growth rates of individuals and rapid rates of turnover at the population level mean that squid can respond quickly to environmental or ecosystem change. Their ‘life-in-the-fast-lane’ life-style allows them to rapidly exploit ‘vacuums’ created in the ecosystem when predators or competitors are removed. In this way, they function as ‘weeds of the sea’. Elevated temperatures accelerate the life-histories of squid, increasing their growth rates and shortening their life-spans. At first glance, it would be logical to suggest that rising water temperatures associated with climate change (if food supply remains adequate) would be beneficial to inshore squid populations and fisheries—growth rates would increase, life spans would shorten and population turnover would accelerate. However, the response of inshore squid populations to climate change is likely to be extremely complex. The size of hatchlings emerging from the eggs becomes smaller as temperatures increase and hatchling size may have a critical influence on the size-at-age that may be achieved as adults and subsequently, population structure. The influence of higher temperatures on the egg and adult stages may thus be opposing forces on the life-history. The process of climate change will likely result in squids that hatch out smaller and earlier, undergo faster growth over shorter life-spans and mature younger and at a smaller size. Individual squid will require more food per unit body size, require more oxygen for faster metabolisms and have a reduced capacity to cope without food. It is therefore likely that biological, physiological and behavioural changes in squid due to climate change will have far reaching effects.

Inter-annual plasticity of squid life history and population structure: ecological and management implications

Population size and structure, as well as individual growth rates, condition, and reproductive output, respond to environmental factors, particularly in short-lived and fast-growing squid species. We need to understand the mechanisms through which populations respond to environmental conditions, to predict when or if established relationships, used as management tools to forecast recruitment strength, might break down completely. Identifying characteristics of successful recruits who have grown under different environmental scenarios may improve our understanding of the mechanistic connections between environmental conditions and the temporal variation in life history characteristics that ultimately affect recruitment. This 5-year study sought to determine the association between key life history characteristics of southern calamary Sepioteuthis australis (growth rate, body size, and patterns of repro-somatic energy allocation) and the environmental conditions experienced by individuals on the east coast of Tasmania, Australia. Among years, all population and individual parameters examined were highly variable, despite the environmental regime during the study not encompassing the extremes that may occur in this dynamic region. Temperature was not clearly associated with any of the individual or population differences observed. Populations of apparently similar abundance were composed of individuals with strikingly different biological characteristics, therefore seeking relationships between abundance and environmental parameters at gross levels did not shed light on the mechanisms responsible for population size. Importantly, inter-annual differences in squid size, condition, reproductive investment, and possibly growth rate, were sex-specific, indicating that males and females responded differently to similar factors. Among years differences in body size were extreme, both among the male component of the population and between genders. The relative importance of many size-based processes that contribute to population size and structure (e.g. predation, starvation, competition, and reproductive success) will therefore vary inter-annually.

The short history of research in a marine climate change hotspot: from anecdote to adaptation in south-east Australia

Climate change is not being felt equally around the world. Regions where warming is most rapid will be among those to experience impacts first, will need to develop early responses to these impacts and can provide a guide for management elsewhere. We describe the research history in one such global marine hotspot—south-east Australia—where a number of contentions about the value of hotspots as natural laboratories have been supported, including (1) early reporting of changes (2) early documentation of impacts, and (3) earlier development and promotion of adaptation options. We illustrate a transition from single discipline impacts-focused research to an inter-disciplinary systems view of adaptation research. This transition occurred against a background of change in the political position around climate change and was facilitated by four preconditioning factors. These were: (1) early observations of rapid oceanic change that coincided with (2) biological change which together provided a focus for action, (3) the strong marine orientation and history of management in the region, and (4) the presence of well developed networks. Three case studies collectively show the critical role of inter-disciplinary engagement and stakeholder participation in supporting industry and government adaptation planning.

World squid fisheries

Abstract Some 290 species of squids comprise the order Teuthida that belongs to the molluscan Class Cephalopoda. Of these, about 30–40 squid species have substantial commercial importance around the world. Squid fisheries make a rather small contribution to world landings from capture fisheries relative to that of fish, but the proportion has increased steadily over the last decade, with some signs of recent leveling off. The present overview describes all substantial squid fisheries around the globe. The main ecological and biological features of exploited stocks, and key aspects of fisheries management are presented for each commercial species of squid worldwide. The history and fishing methods used in squid fisheries are also described. Special attention has been paid to interactions between squid fisheries and marine ecosystems including the effects of fishing gear, the role of squid in ecosystem change induced by overfishing on groundfish, and ecosystem-based fishery management.

Rapid assessment of fisheries species sensitivity to climate change

Climate change driven alterations in the distribution and abundance of marine species, and the timing of their life history events (phenology), are being reported around the globe. However, we have limited capacity to detect and predict these responses, even for comparatively well studied commercial fishery species. Fisheries provide significant socio-economic benefits for many coastal communities, and early warning of potential changes to fish stocks will provide managers and other stakeholders with the best opportunity to adapt to these impacts. Rapid assessment methods that can estimate the sensitivity of species to climate change in a wide range of contexts are needed. This study establishes an objective, flexible and cost effective framework for prioritising future ecological research and subsequent investment in adaptation responses in the face of resource constraints. We build on an ecological risk assessment framework to assess relative sensitivities of commercial species to climate change drivers, specifically in relation to their distribution, abundance and phenology, and demonstrate our approach using key species within the fast warming region of south-eastern Australia. Our approach has enabled fisheries managers to understand likely changes to fisheries under a range of climate change scenarios, highlighted critical research gaps and priorities, and assisted marine industries to identify adaptation strategies that maximise positive outcomes.

The in situ relationships between season of hatching, growth and condition in the southern calamary, Sepioteuthis australis

This paper examines seasonal patterns in growth and condition of Sepioteuthis australis from temperate waters of Tasmania, Australia. Growth was described by a power function and was fast for a temperate species, with an average rate over the lifetime of 4–5% BW day–1. Sepioteuthis australis is an annual species, however spawning and hatching of juveniles appears to occur all year round. Analysis of individual juvenile growth demonstrated a correlation between seasonally increasing temperatures and progressively faster growth. Season of hatching also had a clear effect on adult growth; summer-hatched individuals were larger at 170–190 days of age compared with winter-hatched individuals (1002 ± 98 g and 632 ± 27 g respectively). The length–mantle weight relationship of adults was also dependent on season of hatching, with individuals hatched in summer and spring having heavier mantles at a given length than those hatched in winter or autumn. Differential rates of growth or varying levels of condition, or perhaps both, may affect the survivorship of individuals. Growth, condition and potentially lifespan of S. australis are dependent on environmental factors, with the dynamic nature of oceanographical conditions on the east coast of Tasmania resulting in a highly variable and fluctuating population structure.

The role of hatchling size in generating the intrinsic size-at-age variability of cephalopods: extending the Forsythe Hypothesis

Cephalopods are characterised by extreme variability in size-at-age, with much of this variation attributed to effects of temperature and food. However, even siblings reared under identical conditions display a wide range of sizes after a period of growth. Hatchling size may represent a source of variation encompassed within adult size-at-age data (i) within a given cohort (variation in hatchling size suggests that a cohort’s growth trajectory will have a ‘staggered start’) and (ii) as hatchling size also varies as a function of incubation temperature this will vary across broader scales (i.e. between cohorts). Field-hatchling size data for Sepioteuthis australis were used in simple deterministic simulations, extending Forsythe’s (1993) temperature hypothesis, to investigate the influence of hatchling size on adult size-at-age variability. Within a cohort, our growth projections suggest that after 90 days, a large hatchling growing at a specific constant percentage daily growth rate (%BW day–1), would be approximately double the size of the small hatchling growing at exactly the same rate, irrespective of the growth rate used. When considering growth of different cohorts, decreases in hatchling size, as temperatures increase during a spring/summer spawning season, may be partially counteracting the ‘Forsythe-effect’ of increased growth rate at higher temperatures.