Guido R. van der Werf

Fire in the Earth system.

Burn, Baby, Burn Wildfires can have dramatic and devastating effects on landscapes and human structures and are important agents in environmental transformation. Their impacts on nonanthropocentric aspects of the environment, such as ecosystems, biodiversity, carbon reserves, and climate, are often overlooked. Bowman et al. (p. 481) review what is known and what is needed to develop a holistic understanding of the role of fire in the Earth system, particularly in view of the pervasive impact of fires and the likelihood that they will become increasingly difficult to control as climate changes. Fire is a worldwide phenomenon that appears in the geological record soon after the appearance of terrestrial plants. Fire influences global ecosystem patterns and processes, including vegetation distribution and structure, the carbon cycle, and climate. Although humans and fire have always coexisted, our capacity to manage fire remains imperfect and may become more difficult in the future as climate change alters fire regimes. This risk is difficult to assess, however, because fires are still poorly represented in global models. Here, we discuss some of the most important issues involved in developing a better understanding of the role of fire in the Earth system.

Three decades of global methane sources and sinks

Methane is an important greenhouse gas, responsible for about 20% of the warming induced by long-lived greenhouse gases since pre-industrial times. By reacting with hydroxyl radicals, methane reduces the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere and generates ozone in the troposphere. Although most sources and sinks of methane have been identified, their relative contributions to atmospheric methane levels are highly uncertain. As such, the factors responsible for the observed stabilization of atmospheric methane levels in the early 2000s, and the renewed rise after 2006, remain unclear. Here, we construct decadal budgets for methane sources and sinks between 1980 and 2010, using a combination of atmospheric measurements and results from chemical transport models, ecosystem models, climate chemistry models and inventories of anthropogenic emissions. The resultant budgets suggest that data-driven approaches and ecosystem models overestimate total natural emissions. We build three contrasting emission scenarios-which differ in fossil fuel and microbial emissions-to explain the decadal variability in atmospheric methane levels detected, here and in previous studies, since 1985. Although uncertainties in emission trends do not allow definitive conclusions to be drawn, we show that the observed stabilization of methane levels between 1999 and 2006 can potentially be explained by decreasing-to-stable fossil fuel emissions, combined with stable-to-increasing microbial emissions. We show that a rise in natural wetland emissions and fossil fuel emissions probably accounts for the renewed increase in global methane levels after 2006, although the relative contribution of these two sources remains uncertain.

Contribution of semi-arid ecosystems to interannual variability of the global carbon cycle

The land and ocean act as a sink for fossil-fuel emissions, thereby slowing the rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Although the uptake of carbon by oceanic and terrestrial processes has kept pace with accelerating carbon dioxide emissions until now, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations exhibit a large variability on interannual timescales, considered to be driven primarily by terrestrial ecosystem processes dominated by tropical rainforests. We use a terrestrial biogeochemical model, atmospheric carbon dioxide inversion and global carbon budget accounting methods to investigate the evolution of the terrestrial carbon sink over the past 30 years, with a focus on the underlying mechanisms responsible for the exceptionally large land carbon sink reported in 2011 (ref. 2). Here we show that our three terrestrial carbon sink estimates are in good agreement and support the finding of a 2011 record land carbon sink. Surprisingly, we find that the global carbon sink anomaly was driven by growth of semi-arid vegetation in the Southern Hemisphere, with almost 60 per cent of carbon uptake attributed to Australian ecosystems, where prevalent La Niña conditions caused up to six consecutive seasons of increased precipitation. In addition, since 1981, a six per cent expansion of vegetation cover over Australia was associated with a fourfold increase in the sensitivity of continental net carbon uptake to precipitation. Our findings suggest that the higher turnover rates of carbon pools in semi-arid biomes are an increasingly important driver of global carbon cycle inter-annual variability and that tropical rainforests may become less relevant drivers in the future. More research is needed to identify to what extent the carbon stocks accumulated during wet years are vulnerable to rapid decomposition or loss through fire in subsequent years.

Global impacts of aerosols from particular source regions and sectors

Calculated direct anthropogenic radiative forcings are � 0.29, � 0.06, and 0.24 W m � 2 for sulfate, organic, and black carbon, respectively. The largest BC radiative forcings are from residential (0.09 W m � 2 ) and transport (0.06 W m � 2 ) sectors, making these potential targets to counter global warming. However, scattering components within these sectors reduce these to 0.04 and 0.03 W m � 2 , respectively. Most anthropogenic sulfate comes from power and industry sectors, and these sectors are responsible for the large negative aerosol forcings over the central Northern Hemisphere.

Climate controls on the variability of fires in the tropics and subtropics

In the tropics and subtropics, most fires are set by humans for a wide range of purposes. The total amount of burned area and fire emissions reflects a complex interaction between climate, human activities, and ecosystem processes. Here we used satellite-derived data sets of active fire detections, burned area, precipitation, and the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fAPAR) during 1998–2006 to investigate this interaction. The total number of active fire detections and burned area was highest in areas that had intermediate levels of both net primary production (NPP; 500–1000 g C m−2 year−1) and precipitation (1000–2000 mm year−1), with limits imposed by the length of the fire season in wetter ecosystems and by fuel availability in drier ecosystems. For wet tropical forest ecosystems we developed a metric called the fire-driven deforestation potential (FDP) that integrated information about the length and intensity of the dry season. FDP partly explained the spatial and interannual pattern of fire-driven deforestation across tropical forest regions. This climate-fire link in combination with higher precipitation rates in the interior of the Amazon suggests that a negative feedback on fire-driven deforestation may exist as the deforestation front moves inward. In Africa, compared to the Amazon, a smaller fraction of the tropical forest area had FDP values sufficiently low to prevent fire use. Tropical forests in mainland Asia were highly vulnerable to fire, whereas forest areas in equatorial Asia had, on average, the lowest FDP values. FDP and active fire detections substantially increased in forests of equatorial Asia, however, during El Nino periods. In contrast to these wet ecosystems we found a positive relationship between precipitation, fAPAR, NPP, and active fire detections in arid ecosystems. This relationship was strongest in northern Australia and arid regions in Africa. Highest levels of fire activity were observed in savanna ecosystems that were limited neither by fuel nor by the length of the fire season. However, relations between annual precipitation or drought extent and active fire detections were often poor here, hinting at the important role of other factors, including land managers, in controlling spatial and temporal variability of fire.

Global vulnerability of peatlands to fire and carbon loss

The amount of carbon stored in peats exceeds that stored in vegetation. A synthesis of the literature suggests that smouldering fires in peatlands could become more common as the climate warms, and release old carbon to the air.

Time-dependent inversion estimates of global biomass-burning CO emissions using Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) measurements

We present an inverse-modeling analysis of CO emissions using column CO retrievals from the Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument and a global chemical transport model (GEOS-CHEM). We first focus on the information content of MOPITT CO column retrievals in terms of constraining CO emissions associated with biomass burning and fossil fuel/biofuel use. Our analysis shows that seasonal variation of biomass-burning CO emissions in Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia can be characterized using monthly mean MOPITT CO columns. For the fossil fuel/biofuel source category the derived monthly mean emission estimates are noisy even when the error statistics are accurately known, precluding a characterization of seasonal variations of regional CO emissions for this source category. The derived estimate of CO emissions from biomass burning in southern Africa during the June–July 2000 period is significantly higher than the prior estimate (prior, 34 Tg; posterior, 13 Tg). We also estimate that emissions are higher relative to the prior estimate in northern Africa during December 2000 to January 2001 and lower relative to the prior estimate in Central America and Oceania/Indonesia during April–May and September–October 2000, respectively. While these adjustments provide better agreement of the model with MOPITT CO column fields and with independent measurements of surface CO from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory at background sites in the Northern Hemisphere, some systematic differences between modeled and measured CO fields persist, including model overestimation of background surface CO in the Southern Hemisphere. Characterizing and accounting for underlying biases in the measurement model system are needed to improve the robustness of the top-down estimates.

The use of ATSR active fire counts for estimating relative patterns of biomass burning- a study from the boreal forest region

Satellite fire products have the potential to construct inter-annual time series of fire activity, but estimating area burned requires considering biases introduced by orbiting geometry, fire behavior, and the presence of clouds and smoke. Here we evaluated the performance of fire counts from the Advanced Thermal Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) for the boreal forest region using area burned information from other sources. We found ATSR detection rate varied between regions and different years, being higher during large fire years than during small fire years. The results show ATSR fire counts do not represent an unbiased sample of fire activity, and independent validation may be required prior to using this data set in studies of global emissions from biomass burning.

Contribution of ocean, fossil fuel, land biosphere, and biomass burning carbon fluxes to seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric CO2

Seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations was simulated using fluxes from fossil fuel, ocean and terrestrial biogeochemical models, and a tracer transport model with time-varying winds. The atmospheric CO2 variability resulting from these surface fluxes was compared to observations from 89 GLOBALVIEW monitoring stations. At northern hemisphere stations, the model simulations captured most of the observed seasonal cycle in atmospheric CO2, with the land tracer accounting for the majority of the signal. The ocean tracer was 3–6 months out of phase with the observed cycle at these stations and had a seasonal amplitude only ∼10% on average of observed. Model and observed interannual CO2 growth anomalies were only moderately well correlated in the northern hemisphere (R ∼ 0.4–0.8), and more poorly correlated in the southern hemisphere (R < 0.6). Land dominated the interannual variability (IAV) in the northern hemisphere, and biomass burning in particular accounted for much of the strong positive CO2 growth anomaly observed during the 1997–1998 El Nino event. The signals in atmospheric CO2 from the terrestrial biosphere extended throughout the southern hemisphere, but oceanic fluxes also exerted a strong influence there, accounting for roughly half of the IAV at many extratropical stations. However, the modeled ocean tracer was generally uncorrelated with observations in either hemisphere from 1979–2004, except during the weak El Nino/post-Pinatubo period of the early 1990s. During that time, model results suggested that the ocean may have accounted for 20–25% of the observed slowdown in the atmospheric CO2 growth rate

Indonesian fire activity and smoke pollution in 2015 show persistent nonlinear sensitivity to El Niño-induced drought

Significance The 2015 Indonesian fire season, in terms of fire activity and pollution, was the most severe since the NASA Earth Observing satellite system began observations in the early 2000s. Our estimates show that the 2015 CO2-equivalent biomass burning emissions for all of Indonesia were between the 2013 annual fossil fuel CO2 emissions of Japan and India. Longer-term records of airport visibility in Sumatra and Kalimantan show that 2015 ranked among the worst episodes on record. Analysis of dry season rainfall shows that, due to the continued use of fire to clear and prepare land on degraded peat, the Indonesian fire environment continues to have nonlinear sensitivity to dry conditions, and this sensitivity appears to have increased over Kalimantan. The 2015 fire season and related smoke pollution in Indonesia was more severe than the major 2006 episode, making it the most severe season observed by the NASA Earth Observing System satellites that go back to the early 2000s, namely active fire detections from the Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometers (MODIS), MODIS aerosol optical depth, Terra Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) carbon monoxide (CO), Aqua Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) CO, Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) aerosol index, and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) CO. The MLS CO in the upper troposphere showed a plume of pollution stretching from East Africa to the western Pacific Ocean that persisted for 2 mo. Longer-term records of airport visibility in Sumatra and Kalimantan show that 2015 ranked after 1997 and alongside 1991 and 1994 as among the worst episodes on record. Analysis of yearly dry season rainfall from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) and rain gauges shows that, due to the continued use of fire to clear and prepare land on degraded peat, the Indonesian fire environment continues to have nonlinear sensitivity to dry conditions during prolonged periods with less than 4 mm/d of precipitation, and this sensitivity appears to have increased over Kalimantan. Without significant reforms in land use and the adoption of early warning triggers tied to precipitation forecasts, these intense fire episodes will reoccur during future droughts, usually associated with El Niño events.