Guillaume Horny

Job Durations with Worker and Firm Specific Effects: MCMC Estimation with Longitudinal Employer-Employee Data

We study job durations using a multivariate hazard model allowing for worker-specific and firm-specific unobserved determinants. The latter are captured by unobserved heterogeneity terms or random effects, one at the firm level and another at the worker level. This enables us to decompose the variation in job durations into the relative contribution of the worker and the firm. We also allow the unobserved terms to be correlated in a model that is primarily relevant for markets with small firms. For the empirical analysis, we use a Portuguese longitudinal matched employer–employee dataset. The model is estimated with a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation method. The results imply that unobserved firm characteristics explain almost 40% of the systematic variation in log job durations. In addition, we find a positive correlation between unobserved worker and firm characteristics.

Capital Utilisation and Retirement

This empirical analysis aims at assessing the effect of the economic climate and the intensity of capital utilisation on companies’ capital retirement behaviour. It is conducted using individual company data, as well as original data on the degree of utilisation of production factors. The sample includes 6,998 observations over the period 1996-2008. This database is, to our knowledge, unique for the empirical analysis of the intensity of capital utilisation on firms’ capital retirement behaviour. We adjust for endogeneity biases by means of instrumental variables. The main results obtained from the estimation of capital retirement models may be summarised as follows: i) The retirement rate decreases with the variations in cyclical pressures measured by the changes in output and the workweek of capital; this relation corresponds to a countercyclical decelerator effect on capital retirement; ii) The capital retirement rate increases with the structural intensity of capital utilisation; this effect, which corresponds to a wear and tear one, is nevertheless small compared to the decelerator one; iii) The profit rate does not have a significant impact on the retirement rate. Compared with the existing literature, here mainly Mairesse and Dormont (1985), the contribution of these results is to show, through the use of unique survey data, that the effect of the intensity of capital utilisation on capital retirement is structurally positive, via a wear and tear effect, and cyclically negative, via a decelerator effect which completes that already taken into account via the effect of changes in value added.

Bayesian estimation of Cox models with non-nested random effects: an application to the ratification of ILO conventions by developing countries

We use a multivariate hazard model to analyse the ratification behaviour of ILO conventions by developing countries. The model accounts for two random effects: one at the country level, the other at the convention level. After investigating identification, we use a semi-parametric Bayesian approach based on the partial likelihood. We find diverging results between Bayesian and frequentist estimates concerning the importance of the two unobserved heterogeneities.

Wage and Price Joint Dynamics at the Firm Level: An Empirical Analysis

This article provides evidence about the interrelationships between wages and prices at the microeconomic level. We rely on the right-to manage model to specify and estimate a multivariate model explaining the timing and magnitude of wage changes at the firm level. The modeling of price changes relies on a state-dependent model. The data we use is a quarterly panel of about 1800 firms from the French manufacturing industry, observed over the years 1998 to 2005. We find the occurrence of wage changes to be essentially time dependent, though weakly related to the state of the economy. However, the magnitude of wage changes strongly depends on macroeconomic variables, namely inflation and unemployment, and to a lesser extent on the evolution of the firm product price and on its productivity gains. Changes in the firm product price are mostly driven by the evolution of its costs and more specifically by that of its intermediate inputs. The wage cost, as well as the production and the industry level inflation, have a weaker influence.

The Dynamics of Bank Loans Short-Term Interest Rates in the Euro Area: What Lessons Can We Draw from the Current Crisis?

We analyze the dynamics of the bank interest rates on the new short-term loans granted to non-financial corporations in seven countries of the euro area (France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain). Our specification is based on a multivariate diffusion model, involving factors and stochastic volatilities. In the application, we use a harmonized monthly database collected by the national central banks of the Eurosystem, over the period January 2003-November 2012. We estimate the model within a Bayesian framework, using Markov Chains Monte Carlo methods (MCMC). Unlike the results on spot rates in the empirical financial literature, we find that bank interest rates do not display evidence of mean reversion, and that the variance increases with the level of the bank rates only for a few countries. Moreover, we notice that the correlations between changes in the rates are not constant over the whole time period, and peak during the last months of 2008. Afterwards, they return more or less quickly to their previous level for some countries, while they remain lower for others. From this standpoint, the patterns within the euro area became more heterogeneous after the years 2008-2009

Measuring Financial Fragmentation in the Euro Area Corporate Bond Market

This paper analyses the determinants of euro area non-financial corporate bonds over the last decade. We decompose the spread between the yield of German, French, Italian and Spanish corporate bonds vis-a-vis the German Bund of similar maturity into country, credit and duration risk premia components via dummy regressions. We highlight three main findings. First, the initial phase of the financial crisis (2008-2009) caused an overall increase in credit risk premia. Since the beginning of 2013 credit risk premia are back to levels comparable to those preceding the financial crisis. Second, at the height of the euro area sovereign crisis (2011-2012), high credit risk premia were accompanied by strong and persistent signs of market fragmentation in Italy and Spain (but not in France). This fragmentation has reached its peak in the second half of 2012 and has started to recede only after the announcement of the OMT. Third, we provide a simple measure of financial integration across the big 4 member states of the euro area.

Changes in Wage Inequality in France: The Impact of Composition Effects (in French)

This paper investigates the recent changes in the French wage structure from 1990 to 2008. To do so, we disentangle the impact of changes in employment probability, changes in the levels of education and experience and changes in the price of labor. Unlike other developped countries, we find that upper and lower tail inequality decline between the first and the last decile for male and female. The recent period thus could be described as a period of “great compression” of wages between the first and the last decile. As a result, the decline in education and experience returns has produced one of the most egalitarian wage structure ever observed in France since the 1960s.