Guillermo Cordero

The Breakdown of the Spanish Two-Party System: The Upsurge of Podemos and Ciudadanos in the 2015 General Election

Abstract The 2015 general election marked the end of the two-party system that had existed in Spain since the restoration of democracy. Two new parties, ‘Podemos’ and ‘Ciudadanos’, entered the national arena for the first time and together obtained 34.6 per cent of the vote. This paper describes this election’s context and electoral results by analysing the individual determinants behind the change to the Spanish party system. The results indicate that economic factors predominantly explain the votes for the traditional parties, the PP and PSOE. On the other hand, political factors help distinguish why some voters remained ‘loyal’ to the traditional parties and others switched to the new formations. While Podemos switchers were mainly politically disaffected left-wing voters, electoral support for Ciudadanos came from younger and ideologically moderate voters who had lower levels of political trust.

Against Bipartyism, Towards Dealignment? The 2014 European Election in Spain

The 2014 European Parliament (EP) election in Spain took place in a context of deep economic recession and distrust of political institutions. These conditions triggered an unprecedented electoral response through which Podemos, a radical leftist party created shortly before the election, obtained eight per cent of votes and gained electoral momentum thereafter, seriously threatening the two-party-plus system. Using data from a panel survey, our analyses reveal some unexpected findings. The intensity of protest voting and the timing of the contest within the national electoral cycle have had a major impact on national politics – with the possibility of eventually producing a party-system change.

Economic Crisis and Support for Democracy in Europe

The study of the impact of the economic crisis on attitudes toward democracy tends to be focused on satisfaction with specific democratic institutions. This article expands upon previous research to explore how the current economic crisis can affect core support for democracy as a regime. Based on European Social Survey data for the Eurozone countries, the findings are twofold. It is shown, firstly, that perceptions of the state of the economy have an impact both on satisfaction with and support for democracy, and, secondly, that citizens’ support for democracy is greater in bailed-out countries. In countries that have experienced intervention, the more critical citizens and those less satisfied with the outputs of democracy are the stronger advocates of democracy. The article argues that this is connected with the tendency of critical citizens in bailed-out countries to blame external agents for the economic situation while increasing the saliency of democratic rules as a reaction to the imposition of unpopular measures.

Selecting Candidates in Multilevel Democracies

Parties around the world have introduced more participatory ways of selecting candidates for public office in recent decades (Hopkin, 2001). The improvement on the electoral performance (Carey & Polga-Hecimovich, 2006), the search for—or enhancement of—internal democratization (Dalton, Farrell, & McAllister, 2011; De Winter, 1988; Rahat & Hazan, 2001), as well as external pressures—organized civil society, competition of new parties—to open the party organization has motivated the change toward more inclusive selection processes. As previous works have shown, the level of inclusiveness of candidate selection is fundamental in any representative democracy as it influences the quality of representation (Katz, 2001; Norris & Lovenduski, 1995), party discipline or cohesion within parties (Bowler, Farrell, & Katz, 1999; Carey, 2007; Cordero & Coller, 2015; Gallagher & Marsh, 1988), internal distribution of power (Bille, 2001; Gallagher, Laver, & Mari, 2001; Hopkin, 2001; Michels, 1915), the voting behavior of selectors (Cross & Blais, 2012), and affects the stability of governments and institutions (Gallagher et al., 2001; Morlino, 1995; Rahat & Hazan, 2010). The selection of candidates is in most cases a nonpublic and largely unknown political process. Nonetheless, it is one of the most relevant elements affecting the quality of democracies since criteria and procedures to select candidates lead to electoral lists from which citizens select their representatives. Who decides who will be on the electoral list? What criteria are mobilized to select the candidates and under what institutional constraints? How are they selected, what are the procedures conditioning the selection process? To answer these questions, the most common strategy among

Is a corrupt government totally unacceptable

Abstract Corrupt governments are not always punished by voters. Under certain circumstances citizens consider voting for the incumbent party even if the party is perceived as corrupt. Using survey data for Spain, this article analyses what makes citizens reject (or not) the idea of voting for a corrupt party. Previous research has shown that party identification, ideology and political information play a role in voters’ reactions to corruption. The article argues that voters judge corruption in relative terms; what matters is not how corrupt the incumbent party is perceived to be but whether it is deemed to be more corrupt than the other parties.

Candidate Selection in a Multilevel State The Case of Spain

The intraparty mechanisms for Members of Parliament (MPs) selection has been only partially analyzed by the literature. Most works focus on parties’ written rules regarding the selection of candidates for the national chamber(s). However, party statutes hide other informal procedures. In this article, we analyze how candidate selection is implemented in parties using survey data for a representative sample of 580 MPs, completed with 58 in-depth interviews of MPs and gatekeepers. With these data, we analyze how the selection of candidates is implemented in a multilevel democracy such as Spain.

Recruitment and Selection

This chapter focuses on a hardly known matter: how individuals are chosen for the electoral list. The analysis relies on the causation funnel model by Norris (1997) and the inclusiveness and centralization dimensions by Rahart and Hazan (2001) to conclude that the MPs candidates are selected in a centralized and exclusive way; that is to say, far away from the rank-and-file affiliates, the activist and supporters at the local level. Loyalty, party involvement and expertise are the main reasons underlying candidate selection for the electoral lists whilst there are significant differences among parties.

National and Regional Identity

Drawing from a constructivist approach this chapter analyzes MPs’ collective identities. Despite the obvious differences between parties and territories, most of the MPs show a dual identity (the same as their electors) feeling as Spanish as from their own region. Nevertheless, it is proved that the younger MPs, the more left-wing ones and the regions’ native MPs are more prone to show a territorial identity distant of the Spanish one. Finally, the meaning of Spain like a collective referent is analyzed along with the relationship between collective identity and nationalism.

The Iron Law of Oligarchy and New Ways of Selecting Candidates

This is a book about the effects of Intra-Party Democracy (IPD) practices on candidate selection. The book begins with a discussion of primaries and its extension to semi-presidential democracies, and then it turns to four usually uncovered and relevant topics on the effects of implementing inclusive methods on candidate selection—the use of the Internet and its potential to foster or undermine oligarchic tensions in parties; the analysis of MPs discourses about how they were selected and how selection should be changed; the effects of different methods of candidate selection on the social profile of MPs; and the impact of candidate selection on discipline in parliamentary behavior. Taken together, all these chapters touch upon several corners of Michels’ Iron Law of Oligarchy qualifying or reinforcing it.

Lights and Shadows of Democratizing Candidate Selection

The recent economic crisis has had profound consequences for politics around the world: higher levels of volatility and disaffection, the upsurge of populism, the emergence of new parties, and the new relevance of formerly minor parties. At the same time, there has been an increase in the demand for more participative ways of decision-making in politics channelled through social movements and individuals in different countries. To meet these demands, some parties have introduced changes in their internal organisation (via intra-party democracy) related to the selection of candidates for public office. In this book, we first explore these new methods of selection; secondly, we analyse how the Internet is increasingly being used as a selection tool and its consequences; and thirdly, we evaluate some of the relevant implications of embracing intra-party democracy (IPD) for the profile and behaviour of MPs. This chapter helps to contextualise these trends, introduces the key findings of the book and discusses some of the principal challenges of selecting candidates using internally democratic mechanisms.