Gulsen Ucarkus

Submarine fault scarps in the Sea of Marmara pull-apart (North Anatolian Fault): Implications for seismic hazard in Istanbul

Earthquake scarps associated with recent historical events have been found on the floor of the Sea of Marmara, along the North Anatolian Fault (NAF). The MARMARASCARPS cruise using an unmanned submersible (ROV) provides direct observations to study the fine-scale morphology and geology of those scarps, their distribution, and geometry. The observations are consistent with the diversity of fault mechanisms and the fault segmentation within the north Marmara extensional step-over, between the strike-slip Ganos and Izmit faults. Smaller strike-slip segments and pull-apart basins alternate within the main step-over, commonly combining strike-slip and extension. Rapid sedimentation rates of 1?3 mm/yr appear to compete with normal faulting components of up to 6 mm/yr at the pull-apart margins. In spite of the fast sedimentation rates the submarine scarps are preserved and accumulate relief. Sets of youthful earthquake scarps extend offshore from the Ganos and Izmit faults on land into the Sea of Marmara. Our observations suggest that they correspond to the submarine ruptures of the 1999 Izmit (Mw 7.4) and the 1912 Ganos (Ms 7.4) earthquakes. While the 1999 rupture ends at the immediate eastern entrance of the extensional Cinarcik Basin, the 1912 rupture appears to have crossed the Ganos restraining bend into the Sea of Marmara floor for 60 km with a right-lateral slip of 5 m, ending in the Central Basin step-over. From the Gulf of Saros to Marmara the total 1912 rupture length is probably about 140 km, not 50 km as previously thought. The direct observations of submarine scarps in Marmara are critical to defining barriers that have arrested past earthquakes as well as defining a possible segmentation of the contemporary state of loading. Incorporating the submarine scarp evidence modifies substantially our understanding of the current state of loading along the NAF next to Istanbul. Coulomb stress modeling shows a zone of maximum loading with at least 4?5 m of slip deficit encompassing the strike-slip segment 70 km long between the Cinarcik and Central Basins. That segment alone would be capable of generating a large-magnitude earthquake (Mw 7.2). Other segments in Marmara appear less loaded.

Palaeoseismology of the North Anatolian Fault near the Marmara Sea: implications for fault segmentation and seismic hazard

Abstract We conducted palaeoseismic studies along the North Anatolian fault both east and west of the Marmara Sea to evaluate its recent surface rupture history in relation to the well-documented historical record of earthquakes in the region, and to assess the hazard of this major fault to the city of Istanbul, one of the largest cities in the Middle East. Across the 1912 rupture of the Ganos strand of the North Anatolian fault west of the Marmara Sea, we excavated 26 trenches to resolve slip and constrain the earthquake history on a channel–fan complex that crosses the fault at a high angle. A distinctive, well-sorted fine sand channel that served as a marker unit was exposed in 21 trenches totaling over 300 m in length. Isopach mapping shows that the sand is channelized north of the fault, and flowed as an overflow fan complex across a broad fault scarp to the south. Realignment of the feeder channel thalweg to the fan apex required about 9±1 m of reconstruction. Study of the rupture history in several exposures demonstrates that this displacement occurred as two large events. Analysis of radiocarbon dates places the age of the sand channel as post ad 1655, so we attribute the two surface ruptures to the large regional earthquakes of 1766 and 1912. If each was similar in size, then about 4–5 m of slip can be attributed to each event, consistent with that reported for 1912 farther east. We also found evidence for two additional surface ruptures after about ad 900, which probably correspond to the large regional earthquakes of 1063 and 1344 (or 1354). These observations suggest fairly periodic occurrence of large earthquakes (RI=c. 283±113 years) for the past millennium, and a rate of c. 16 mm/a if all events experienced similar slip. We excavated six trenches at two sites along the 1999 Izmit rupture to study the past earthquake history along that segment of the North Anatolian fault. One site, located in the township of Köseköy east of Izmit, revealed evidence for three surface ruptures (including 1999) during the past 400 years. The other trench was sited in an Ottoman canal that was excavated (but never completed) in 1591. There is evidence for three large surface rupturing events in the upper 2 m of alluvial fill within the canal at that site, located only a few kilometres from the Köseköy site. One of the past events is almost certainly the large earthquake of 1719, for which historical descriptions of damage are nearly identical to that of 1999. Other earthquakes that could plausibly be attributed to the other recognized rupture of the Izmit segment are the 1754, 1878 or 1894 events, all of which produced damage in the region and for which the source faults are poorly known. Our palaeoseismic observations suggest that the Izmit segment of the North Anatolia fault ruptures every one and a half centuries or so, consistent with the historical record for the region, although the time between ruptures may be as short as 35 years if 1754 broke the Izmit segment. Release of about 4 m of seismic slip both west and east of the Marmara Sea this past century (1912, 1999) support the contention that Istanbul is at high risk from a pending large earthquake. In that historical records suggest that the last large central Marmara Sea event occurred in 1766, there may be a similar 4 m of accumulated strain across the Marmara basin segment of the North Anatolian fault.