Günther Radach

Long-term simulation of the eutrophication of the North Sea: temporal development of nutrients, chlorophyll and primary production in comparison to observations

Abstract The ecosystem model ERSEM II has been used to hindcast the development of the ecosystem of the North Sea during the years 1955 to 1993. The simulation was driven by the box-aggregated output from a general circulation model of the North Sea of corresponding duration; radiation, river inputs, atmospheric input and boundary conditions at the borders to the Atlantic Ocean and to the Baltic Sea were applied as realistically as possible. The general features of the eutrophication process are reproduced in the hindcast: the coastal areas show strong changes in nutrient concentrations in the hindcast as well as in the observations. Eutrophication not only shows up in the nutrient concentrations, but also in primary production. The simulated spatial distributions of phosphate, nitrate and primary production compare well with the observed ones. In addition, the hindcast simulates considerable trend-like changes of the nutrients in the southern part of the North Sea, where the nutrients are transported from the continental coastal strip to the southern central North Sea. The line from the river Humber to southern Norway separates the region of noticeable anthropogenic influence of riverine and atmospheric input from the northern area, which is mainly influenced by the Atlantic nutrient inflow. The observed annual cycles in the central and northern North Sea are quite well reproduced by the hindcast. The comparison of the hindcast with the long-term observations at two sites in the continental coastal zone of the North Sea shows that the long-term behaviour of phosphate, nitrate and silicate is simulated well. Primary production is increased in summers during the main period of eutrophication, 1975 to 1989, in the hindcast and in the observations. The flagellates at Helgoland, however, experience much more pronounced annual cycles with much less interannual variability in the hindcast than in the observations.

Estimation of the variability of production by simulating annual cycles of phytoplankton in the central North Sea

Abstract A physical and a biological one-dimensional upper layer model for the stimualtion of the annual cycles of both the physical and the phytoplankton dynamics, are used to estimate the annual primary production in the central North Sea. The simulations are driven with actual 3-hourly meteorological standard observations and estimated radiation data for the 25 years 1962 to 1986. The high variability of the forcing generates a considerable variability in the physical and biological oceanic mixed layer dynamics. As an example, the model results from two years with contrasting meteorological conditions, 1963 and 1967, are discussed in detail. The mixing regimes generated are very different which result in different annual phytoplankton cycles. During 1963 when conditions were warm and windless, the early establishment of a calm upper layer water mass enabled a strong spring plankton bloom; whereas in 1967, which was stormy and cold, convective overturning continued until April, suppressing an early spring bloom and prolonging the blooming into summer. For the meteorological conditions observed in 1962 to 1986, the simulations yield an integrated annual water column gross production of 83.5–99.0 gC m−2a−1 and an integrated annual water column net production ranging between 43.0 and 64.2 gC m−2a−1 for the central North Sea. Grazing by the prescribed copepod population ranges from 24.5 to 40.0 gC m−2a−1. The production events are described irregularly over the different years, total gross production varies only about 17%, and total net production by about 21%. The nutrient taken up by the algae is 2.6 to 3.2 times the winter concentration of that layer which in summer is situated above the seasonal thermocline. The additional nutrient is provided by local regeneration and by turbulent entrainment from below the thermocline. Local regeneration in the upper layer provides about 2.4 and 0.3 times the entrained amount of phosphate during spring and summer, respectively. In the 25 years 16 late summer or early fall storm events entrained more than 1.2mmol P m−2d−1 into the depleted upper layer, potentially initiating new production events. The simulated annual cycles can be validated with the available data only in the sense that the variability, but not single events, can be compared to measurements. Such comparisons between simulated and field data show that the simulation reproduces the general features of annual phytoplankton cycles. This establishes confidence in those calculated estimates, for which field data are not directly comparable. It is concluded that weather-induced variability can explain most of the observed variability in phytoplankton in annual cycles. A typical annual cycle of phytoplankton biomass dynamics is presented. Ratios of daily process contributions show that the balances between the different processes change during the annual cycle. Diagrams of the mean and seasonal phosphorus flow are derived from the simulations. Two thirds of the primary production are channelled through the copepods, and one third is lost by other processes. Organic matter corresponding to more than the initial amount of nutrients in the mixed layer is sedimenting out of the upper layer, and about the same amount is regenerated at the bottom and mixed into the water column at the end of the year. The critical points in the model: grazing, recycling of nutrients and mixing in the bottom boundary layer, are discussed. The model still needs to be refined with respect to these processes in order to achieve the delicate balances required to generate fall blooms. A series problem is the appropriateness of primary production measurements for a comparison with simulated quantities. Attempts should be made to establish a one-to-one correspondence between model-derived production quantities and measurements. Single events are important, so both sampling strategies and the estimation of fluxes from data should take account of the possible occurrence of such events, which may have been missed in the observations, by presenting ranges covering the realistic variance rather than mean values.

Ecological modelling of the North Sea

North Sea ecosystem models published in accessible literature are partitioned into groups with respect to their emphasis on significance and detail of different trophic levels of the ecosystem. These subsets are treated separately in the three main chapters, which deal with relationships with physical dynamics, lower trophic level interactions and higher trophic level interactions. They are preceded by chapters that introduce the scope of the models, the history of modelling approaches, main purposes and specific aims, general aspects of internal structure, and modelling techniques applied. The main chapters compare the process descriptions characteristic of the subsets of models, and discuss aims and results with emphasis on significance and contribution of the processes considered. The chapter on plankton dynamics in relation to physical dynamics relates plankton responses in the mixed layer to changes in the physical environment. Attention is given to seasonal forcing functions, the coupling of horizontal and vertical plankton distributions, the flow of matter and the sensitivity of the plankton system. The chapter on lower trophic levels deals with primary production and its limiting factors, nutrient cycles, eutrophication, the microbial loop, and mineralization of organic matter in the pelagic and benthic compartments. The chapter on higher trophic levels highlights predator-prey interactions, the impact of grazing, and the significance of predation for system stability. A final chapter discusses what has been achieved so far with models of North Sea ecosystems and what must be aimed at in the future. It argues for lucidity and more methodology in simplification to the degree allowed by the questions to be solved, more attention for models as carriers of unifying concepts in marine ecological theory, technical solutions in handling different time and space scales for different processes and distributions, cooperation of different disciplines to find answers to questions of general importance, and the formation of data bases for model validation.

Nutrient dynamics in the North Sea: Fluxes and budgets in the water column derived from ERSEM

Abstract Nutrient dynamics for phosphate, nitrate, ammonium and silicate have been simulated with ERSEM, the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model. From the model results budgets for the dissolved inorganic nutrients and the corresponding particulate fractions have been calculated. The annual cycles of the nutrients phosphate and silicate compare quite well with the observed ranges of variability. This does not hold for ammonium and nitrate. Biologically mediated transformations such as nutrient uptake and pelagic and benthic mineralization are the dominant processes in changing the nutrient concentrations with the horizontal advective contributions playing a minor role during the productive season. Vertical advection and vertical diffusion have a clear seasonal signal, with a maximum in February. The decay of the advective nutrient transport in summer is caused by the depletion of the upper layer of dissolved inorganic nutrients by algal uptake. The inflow of nutrients in the northwest is almost balanced by the outflow in the northeast, without causing large nutrient transports into the shallower areas from the north. However, from the coastal areas there is a nutrient flow towards the central North Sea, enhancing primary production in the central area.

Variability of Continental Riverine Freshwater and Nutrient Inputs into the North Sea for the Years 1977-2000 and Its Consequences for the Assessment of Eutrophication

We determined the monthly and annual riverine freshwater, nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loading into the North Sea from Belgium, The Netherlands, and Germany for the years 1977–2000. An average of 133 km3 yr−1 of the 309 km3 yr−1 precipitation into the watershed is carried by the rivers into the sea. Total freshwater discharge fluctuates with a strong 6–7 yr periodicity, is strongly correlated with precipitation, and exhibits a slight long-term decrease. The temporal changes of regional patterns of precipitation lead to changing ratios of annual discharge of the western rivers compared to the eastern rivers, varying between 2.2 and 3.5. The long-term oscillations in discharge were more pronounced as discharge increased. The annual means of total and dissolved inorganic N and P loads were estimated to be 722 and 582 kt N yr−1 and 48 and 26 kt P yr−1, respectively. The monthly N loads were much more strongly correlated with discharge, compared to the monthly P loads. Total N and P as well as dissolved inorganic N also demonstrated a 6–7 yr periodicity. The annual N loads decreased by about 17 kt N yr−1 from 1977 to 2000. The total phosphorus and phosphate loads decreased from about 80 and 50 kt P yr−1 in the 1980s to 25 and 12 kt P yr−1, respectively, in the 1990s. The western rivers contributed the major part of the nutrient loads. The long-term oscillations in their nutrient loads were much more pronounced, compared to the eastern rivers. The area-specific loading rates estimated for all rivers are comparable to earlier estimates using shorter data records, smaller sample sizes, and a less complete watershed monitoring program. The monthly and annual average N:P ratios and their variability increased considerably for individual rivers during the study interval. These results confirm that the water quality of European continental rivers is strongly influenced by intense land use. They demonstrate the necessity for using long time series monitoring results to assess change and evaluate the effects of climate change on the North Sea coastal ecosystems, using ecosystem models on decadal time scales.

Simulations of the north sea circulation, its variability, and its implementation as hydrodynamical forcing in ERSEM

Abstract The rationale is given of how the gross physical features of the circulation and the stratification of the North Sea have been aggregated for inclusion in the ecosystem box model ERSEM. As the ecosystem dynamics are to a large extent determined by small-scale physical events, the ecosystem model is forced with the circulation of a specific year rather than using the long-term mean circulation field. Especially the vertical exchange processes have been explicitly included, because the primary production strongly depends on them. Simulations with a general circulation model (GCM), forced by three-hourly meteorological fields, have been utilized to derive daily horizontal transport values driving ERSEM on boxes of sizes of a few 100 km. The daily vertical transports across a fixed 30-m interface provide the necessary short-term event character of the vertical exchange. For the years 1988 and 1989 the properties of the hydrodynamic flow fields are presented in terms of trajectories of the flow, thermocline depths, of water budgets, flushing times and diffusion rates. The results of the standard simulation with ERSEM show that the daily variability of the circulation, being smoothed by the box integration procedure, is transferred to the chemical and biological state variables to a very limited degree only.

The effects of river input on the ecosystem dynamics in the continental coastal zone of the North Sea using ERSEM

Abstract The general characteristics of the continental coastal zone, with nutrient concentrations, primary production and biomass high near the coast but decreasing with distance from the coast, are simulated by a box-refined version of the ecosystem model ERSEM. Aggregated model results compared to the literature as well as to two different three-dimensional models show a good agreement in the coastal region. The dynamical interactions as simulated by the ecosystem model are presented in the form of N P ratios, the limitation by various nutrients and changes in the pathways of the flow of matter in the boxes; e.g. while the silicate limitation stops the spring bloom offshore, near the coast it is terminated by zooplankton grazing. When the river load was reduced by 50%, the largest effect was observed in the coastal boxes with 15% reduction of the net primary production. The discharges of the major rivers hardly affect the central North Sea, but lead to significant changes in nutrient limitations and mass flows in the coastal area. The realistic forcing, which was adopted for this setup, allows a higher net primary production in the southern North Sea in 1989 than in 1988, even though the nutrient river loads in 1989 were lower. The reason appears to be a higher solar energy input in 1989, by about 10 W m −2 d- −1 , compared to 1988.

Climatological annual cycles of nutrients and chlorophyll in the North Sea

Abstract A large amount of nutrient and chlorophyll data from the North Sea were compiled and organised in a research data base to produce annual cycles on a relatively fine spatial resolution of 1° in each horizontal direction. The data originate from many different sources and were partly provided by the ECOMOD data base of the Institut fur Meereskunde in Hamburg and partly by ICES in Copenhagen to cover the time range from 1950 to 1994. While the annual cycles of nutrients and chlorophyll derived for the continental coastal zone are representative for the decade 1984–1993 only, those for the remaining parts of the North Sea may be considered climatological annual cycles based on data from more than four decades. The composite data set of climatological annual cycles of medians and their climatological ranges is well suited to serve for validational and forcing purposes for ecosystem models of the North Sea, which have a resolution larger than or equal to 1° in both longitude and latitude. The annual cycles of the macronutrients and chlorophyll presented here for 1° × 1° squares in the North Sea show especially that sufficient observational data exist to provide initial, forcing and validational data for the simulations with the 130-box setup (ND130) of the ecosystem model ERSEM. The annual cycles presented give a clear picture for the whole of the North Sea. The highest concentrations occur at the continental coasts as a result of continued river input, which is added to the ongoing atmospheric input over the North Sea. Also, from the Atlantic Ocean water with relatively high nutrient concentrations enters the North Sea via the northern boundary. In the productive areas on and around the Dogger Bank nutrient concentrations are lower than in the other parts of the North Sea, even in winter. The areas with seasonal stratification have very different annual cycles in the upper (0–30 m) and lower layers (30 m-bottom). The shallow boxes are fully mixed and exhibit a relatively fast increase of nutrient concentrations caused by summer regeneration of nutrients.

Ecosystem functioning in the German Bight under continental nutrient inputs by rivers

The functioning of the German Bight ecosystem is determined largely by nutrient fluxes in and out of the system, namely by the advection of nutrients from the central and southern North Sea, including the influence of the Rhine River; by nutrient inputs through direct continental river runoff into the German Bight (Elbe, Weser, and Ems rivers); and by atmospheric nutrient inputs originating from land. The nutrient situation in the German Bight and the entire North Sea is assessed by estimating these fluxes from available nutrient data. The advective inflowes are based also on simulated water transports. The circulation system in the North Sea is divided into a northern and a southern cell, with only little net water exchange. The nutrient inflow into the southern North Sea from the north is also small, with no effect on the continental coastal areas. For the entire North Sea, the total input of phosphorus increased by 7.7% an nitrogen by about 11.4% from 1950 to 1980. The percentage of Atlantic input of phosphorus into the entire North Sea decreased from 91% to 85%, while river input increased from 2% to 13%. In the continental coastal strip the total inputs increased by 80%. The share of river input increased to 52%, both for phosphorus (1950: 14%) and nitrogen (1950: 20%). Of the winter nutrient content of the upper 30 m of the entire North Sea 33.5% of phosphate and 16.1% of nitrate are taken up by algae until summer. About 50% of total new production is generated in the coastal areas, with 32.8% of the volume and 34.4% of the area of the North Sea. The ratio of new to regenerated production ranges from 2.8 to 12, depending on the method of derivation. In the German Bight, phosphate and nitrate concentrations increased during the last four decades. At Helgoland the five-year-medians of phosphate and nitrate increased by a factor of 1.7 and 2.5, respectively. As the nutrient inputs by river discharges are only slightly larger than advective contributions, the nutrient concentrations rose comparatively slowly. Diatoms stagnated, while flagellates increased 10-fold. Common winter values in the early 1980s resemble those during summer blooms in the early 1960’s. The German Bight ecosystem has changed drastically on all time scales under the anthropogenic nutrient inputs during the last 40 years; the plankton system is no longer in an annual quasiperiodic state.

Interannual variability of carbon fluxes at the North Atlantic Station ESTOC

Abstract The impact of sea surface temperature and wind stress on primary production, export production, and CO2 air–sea exchange at the ESTOC station (29°N, 15.5°W) north of the Canary Islands is the focus of our investigations. A one-dimensional carbon and nitrogen cycling model was applied for the 10-year period 1987–1996. The simulation results compare well with upper layer observations for 1994–1996. Our simulated deep-water particle fluxes mostly overestimate the originally observed values for 1992–1996. On the other hand, the simulated fluxes underestimate the 230Th corrected particle fluxes (Scholten et al., Deep Sea Res. 48 (2001) 1413). Identifying the original observations as lower and the corrected values as upper estimate for the particle flux the simulation results falls in the range between these estimates. The large simulated interannual variability of carbon fluxes is in apparent contrast to the low interannual variability of the meteorological forcing typical for this subtropical regime. The key to this phenomenon lies in the sensitivity of this ecosystem to nutrient supply: depending on the meteorological situation, in different years the mixed-layer depth can or cannot reach the nitracline.