Gus Haggstrom

The Consequences of Parenthood for the Marital Stability of Young Adults.

This paper examines how the birth of the first child affects the stability of marriages over the short run: it uses [U.S.] data from the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972. [The] results show strong positive effects of the first birth on the marital stability of young adults. [The authors] estimate that by the time the first child reaches his second birth [date] more than 20 percent of the parents would have been divorced or separated if the child had not been born compared to actual disruption rates of 5-8 percent. (EXCERPT)

Logistic Regression and Discriminant Analysis by Ordinary Least Squares

If the observations for fitting a polytomous logistic regression model satisfy certain normality assumptions, the maximum likelihood estimates of the regression coefficients are the discriminant function estimates. This article shows that these estimates, their unbiased counterparts, and associated test statistics for variable selection can be calculated using ordinary least squares regression techniques, thereby providing a convenient method for fitting logistic regression models in the normal case. Evidence is given indicating that the discriminant function estimates and test statistics merit wider use in nonnormal cases, especially in exploratory work on large data sets.

Changes in the Employment Activities of New Parents

Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of the High School Class of 1972 this paper examines the impact of the transition to parenthood on the amount of time men and women spend on paid employment. An individual-effects methodology is used. Its basic premise is that the effect of parenthood on the activities of a particualr individual can be estimated by comparing changes over time in the individuals activity measures with estimates of the expected changes for that individual in the absence of parenthood. In this study the expected changes are estimated using regression equations fitted to observations on the married NLS participants who remained childless through October 1979. Results of the analyses give considerable information on how a 1st birth affects mens and womens employment. The majority of women have jobs prior to pregnancy; most leave these jobs as pregnancy progresses so that only 1 woman in 5 remains employed in the month the child is born. Some women return to work but by 2 years after the birth employment rates reach only 60% of their previous levels. In the absence of parenthood the proportion employed would have steadily increased so that the real employment deficit due to parenthood exceeds that implied by a comparison of employment before and after the birth. The most important contributor to womens decreased work activity forllowing parenthood is withdrawal from employment. On virtually all the measures fathers show higher levels of work activity than would be expected in the absence of the 1st birth but this parenthood effect predates the pregnancy by a substantial amount. The analysis clarifies a number of points raised by previous studies. 1st the effects of parenthood on womens work effort are not universal but are restricted to a subgroup of women who leave work befor the 1st birth. Those who remain at work an important minortty show few parenthood effects on thir commitment to work. 2nd men show only small parenthood effects on average although the results suggest that employment might affect the timing of mens entry in to fatherhood.

Accounting for the educational shortfalls of mothers.

Women who become mothers at an early age complete fewer years of education than women who delay childbearing. Using data from the US National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972 on 11336 females the study examines family formation during the first 4 years after high school. 3123 women had become mothers by October 1976. The mothers especially the earlier groups ranked lower than their classmates in ability class rank and socioeconomic status. Married nonparents were close to the single nonparents in ability and class rank but a much smaller proportion of married nonparents than single nonparents were enrolled in academic programs indicating that most did not plan to go to college. The studys 2 main findings are that: 1) the effects of late-teenage parenthood on young married womens current educational status and long term educational aspirations are less severe than one might infer from comparisons of observed (unadjusted) outcomes for parents and nonparents and 2) parenthood and marriage have separate identifiable effects. The marriage effects are strong for this population of women. Preexisting differences between parents and nonparents would have led to very different educational outcomes in these 2 groups even without parenthood. Many of the effects that might be attributed to early parenthood also show up as effects of early marriage alone. This is not to say that early parenthood has no effects; the mothers do lag behind other married women in both current and expected education. The results show considerable self-selection into early marriage and early parenthood. One problem with the study is that data are limited to women who managed to get to their senior year in high school.