Gustavo De Santis

On the Beginning of Mortality Acceleration

Physiological senescence is characterized by the increasing limitation of capabilities of an organism resulting from the progressive accumulation of molecular damage, which at group (cohort) level translates into, among other things, an increase in mortality risks with age. Physiological senescence is generally thought to begin at birth, if not earlier, but models of demographic aging (i.e., an increase in mortality risks) normally start at considerably later ages. This apparent inconsistency can be solved by assuming the existence of two mortality regimes: “latent” and “manifest” aging. Up to a certain age, there is only latent aging: physiological senescence occurs, but its low level does not trigger any measurable increase in mortality. Past a certain level (and age), molecular damage is such that mortality risks start to increase. We first discuss why this transition from latent to manifest aging should exist at all, and then we turn to the empirical estimation of the corresponding threshold age by applying Bai’s approach to the estimation of breakpoints in time series. Our analysis, which covers several cohorts born between 1850 and 1938 in 14 of the countries included in the Human Mortality Database, indicates that an age at the onset of manifest aging can be identified. However, it has not remained constant: it has declined from about 43 and 47 years, respectively, for males and females at the beginning of the period (cohorts born in 1850–1869) to about 31 for both males and females toward its end (cohorts born in 1920–1938). A discussion of why this may have happened ensues.

Equivalence Scales: A Fresh Look at an Old Problem. Theory and Empirical Evidence

We discuss the theoretical properties (and the empirical results obtained for Italy in the years 1987–2000) of a recently-introduced method for the inclusion of demographic variables in complete demand systems. The main merit of the proposed procedure — labeled DM 2 , or Decomposition Model of the effects of Demographic Metamorphosis — is that it permits researchers to decompose in two main components (“cost” and “style”) the effects on consumer behavior of any demographic characteristic, in a theoretically-consistent framework, with simple algebra, standard statistical software running on ordinary PCs, and only one cross section of data (i.e. with no variation in prices) — although applications to several years, with price variability, are possible, too.

La reproduction des populations : une méthode de décomposition et d'estimation.

De Santis (Gustavo), Livi Bacci (Massimo). - La reproduccion de la poblacion: un metodo de descomposicion y estimacion En este articulo se muestra como, bajo ciertas hipotesis poco restrictivas, se puede descom- poner una medida clasica de la reproduccion, Ro, en una serie de componentes multiplicativos, cada uno de los cuales refleja una dimension especifica (intensidad o frecuencia) de la nupcialidad, mor- talidad, fecundidad, y, si se desea, de la migracion. Esta idea puede ponerse en practica de dos maneras: - si se pueden obtener datos o esti- maciones relativamente completas de los procesos demograficos a partir de, por ejemplo, un censo о un registro, es posible a partir de estos aplicar el metodo de hijos presentes en el hogar y calcular la proporcion de solteros a diferentes edades ; - si no se pueden realizar estos cal- culos, como sucede por ejemplo cuando los datos se obtienen a traves de reconstitucion no- minativa de las familias, es preferible seguir un metodo ligeramente distinto, que consiste en estimar el numero medio de hijas nacidas de una generacion de mujeres sometidas a la mortalidad, migracion y pautas de matrimonio observadas. Si se multiplica este numero por la duracion del matrimonio fecundo se obtiene una estimacion del efectivo total de la generacion de hijas y por consiguiente del valor de Ro. El articulo propone algunos algoritmos simples para el calculo de la edad media al primer nacimiento y para la estimacion de la proporcion de mujeres casadas a tal edad. La aplicacion de estos calculos a los casos de Inglaterra, Francia y Alemania revelan la existencia y la naturaleza de diferentes regimenes demograficos en los siglos XVII y XVIII.

Female Labour Participation with Concurrent Demographic Processes: An Estimation for Italy

This paper sets out to measure the “true” influence of partnering and fertility decisions on women’s participation in the labour market in Italy in 2002. Our model is rather complex for the following reasons. Firstly, because we consider several demographic processes, all of which are potentially affected by endogeneity (i.e. are in turn influenced by labour market decisions). Secondly because we use a cross sectional data source with retrospective questions, which calls into question two additional issues: selectivity and treatment effects. Selectivity arises because only a few, non-random individuals (women in our case) are observed in a given state (e.g. at work, or with children). Treatment effects arise because certain experiences of the past (e.g. having found a husband), may later put a woman on a different life course, which affects her approach towards family formation and labour participation. After a quick look at the main issues at stake and the solutions offered by the relevant literature (Section 7.2), we present our model (Section 7.3) and the data (Section 7.4). The results that we obtain (Section 7.5) are discussed (in Section 7.6) in the light of the institutional setting that characterises Italy.

Clusters and Equivalence Scales

Equivalence scales (S) are difficult to estimate: even apparently solid microeconomic foundations do not necessarily lead to consistent results. We contend that this depends on “style” effects: households with the same economic resources and identical “needs” (e.g. same number of members) may spend differently, following unobservable inclinations (“style” or “taste”). We submit that these style effects must be kept under control if one wants to obtain unbiased estimates of S. One way of doing this is to create clusters of households, with different resources (income), different demographic characteristics (number of members) but similar “economic profile”, in terms of both standard of living and “style”. Cluster-specific scales, and the general S that derives from their average, prove defensible on theoretical grounds and are empirically reasonable and consistent.

The demographic phases and the almost ideal pension system (AIPS)

PAYG (pay-as-you-go) pension systems are not necessarily second-best options. There is a class of them, labelled AIPS (almost ideal pension systems), immune from all the criticisms customarily addressed to PAYG and with a number of advantages: they implicitly encourage people to remain employed at least up to the standard retirement age; the relative weight of solidarity towards the poor and actuarial equity must be explicitly chosen in advance and can be preserved forever; payments always match revenues, etc. AIPS can take different forms, but two basic features characterise them: (1) relativity (the key dependent variables – e.g. age at retirement and pension benefits – are pegged to the proper exogenous variables – wages, employment, average length of life, etc. – and evolve smoothly with them) and (2) use of the ‘reference’ age structure, along with the actual one.

Un sistema di trasferimenti ideale

Pension systems, in Italy and elsewhere, are currently under stress, because populations are getting older and economic growth rates are slowing down. This article sets out to present the guidelines of a possible reform scheme, based on a number of elements which appear to be relatively new in the literature, and notably: 1) reference to a long-term population structure (so as to attenuate possible, and actually frequent, short-term imbalances); 2) identification of two groups of recipients (the demographically dependent, either young or old); 3) choice of the relative income to be allotted to the dependent (relative to what the average worker is left with, net of the payroll tax). The proposed system is shown to possess a number of desirable characteristics: equity, long-term financial equilibrium, constant payroll pressure, constant relative welfare of the parties involved (young, adults, old), capability of self-regulation to varying demo-economic scenarios and, therefore, independence of demo-economic forecasts, incentives to fertility, and, not least, an extreme simplicity, both of its general principle and of its practical applications. Also, several consequences emerge from the discussion: for instance, that a transfer system is a combination of choices and constraints, mean age at retirement being only one of at least three possible instrumental variables. Also, it is shown that it makes little sense to try to define exactly and once-and-for-all the rules of the pension system, because a constantly increasing mean age at death is likely to outdate (almost) all calculations very soon. What may be done, instead, is to link these rules to the characteristics of the life table prevailing in each period, so as to preserve the spirit of the transfer system, and its financial balance, in a wide range of possible actual situations.

Socio-demographic determinants of women’s satisfaction with prenatal and delivery care services in Italy

Abstract Objective The aim of this study was to examine the extent to which socio-demographic variables affect women’s satisfaction regarding antenatal and perinatal care. Design To take into account the role of the context in shaping women’s satisfaction, we used multilevel models, with women at the lower level, and the health districts of residence, or the hospitals in which the delivery took place, at the higher level. Setting Tuscany (Italy) Participants The study is based on a representative survey focused on the satisfaction and experience of 4598 new mothers who gave birth in one of the 25 hospitals in Tuscany (Italy) in 2012. Main Outcome Measures Women’s overall satisfaction in the prenatal period and their overall satisfaction during hospitalization for delivery. Results Regarding pregnancy, women’s satisfaction increased with age, and was generally higher among foreign women coming from non-Western countries and among highly educated women. Regarding delivery, age proved insignificant, whereas citizenship and education maintained the same association with satisfaction. Contrary to our expectations, the number of previous pregnancies turned out to be insignificant. Conclusions Our findings suggest that the quality of maternity services was perceived differently in different socio-demographic groups: women’s expectations affected satisfaction, but in different ways, in various socio-demographic groups, both during pregnancy and at delivery. Keeping these socio-demographic factors into account in the analysis of satisfaction may help organisations to identify areas where pregnancy and delivery services can be better targeted and where increasing awareness among professionals in their everyday practice is most needed.

Do Rational Choices Guide Family Formation and Dissolution in Italy

As social pressure to adhere to accepted standards recedes, individuals are freer to choose their preferred family arrangement. But their choices do not always follow a strictly rational approach: rather, they appear to be guided by a trial-and-error logic, which implies contradictions, loss of efficiency and, occasionally, low personal satisfaction. Modern welfare states, while supporting freedom of choices (which includes the possibility of change: e.g. divorce, or medically assisted fertility in one’s late years), must combine this with other targets, ranging from the empowerment of women to the protection of the weak (children, especially), to a system of incentives that eventually ensures socially acceptable outcomes, including a sufficient level of fertility. The now undisputed primacy of the individual will not destroy families, but it will deeply transform them, and increase their heterogeneity: relationships will increase in number but decrease in duration and intensity.

From the Standard of Living as a Latent Variable to the Estimation of Equivalence Scales and Other Indices

A recent approach to the estimation of equivalence scales (S) suggests that a three-step procedure be followed: one must first form clusters of households with the same apparent standard of living (a latent dimension, to be inferred from selected, “well-behaved” indicators), then estimate within-cluster equivalence scales and finally, with a weighted average, obtain the general equivalence scale. This paper further elaborates on these ideas and illustrates how the same logic can also lead to the estimation of inflation and PPP (purchasing power parity). Thanks to its flexibility, the method can be applied not only to “standard” databases (expenditure surveys) but also to income surveys (e.g. the Bank of Italy SHIW—Survey on Household Income and Wealth), and to any other database including an indicator of resources (e.g. income or total expenditure) and a few “well-behaved” indicators of economic well-being. Empirical results for Italy (2004–2010) are presented and discussed.