Guy H. Gessner

Estimating models with binary dependent variables: Some theoretical and empirical observations

Many mathematically similar models are being used by business researchers to link binary dependent variables with a set of predictor variables. Typical research results indicate little difference between models in their ability to properly classify observations. But, there appear to be major differences in the interpretation of coefficients resulting from the calibration of these competing models. The empirical results in this article clearly show that when the assumptions underlying binary-dependent-variable techniques are violated, parameter estimates may be misleading. This can be true even when the goodness-of-fit statistics are not substantially affected.

Consumer Sentiment and Buying Intentions Revisited: A Comparison of Predictive Usefulness

This article re-examines the controversial issue of the usefulness of attitudinal indices as leading indicators of consumer durable expenditures. First a cross-validation is performed using the two most popular indices of consumer sentiment (Survey Research Center and Conference Board). The usefulness of these indices is then tested using a more recent methodology for time-series analysis.

One-Up, One-Back ERM in the Food Supply Chain

ABSTRACT Repeated outbreaks of E. coli and other food poisonings call attention to the need for fast, accurate tracing capabilities to identify sources of contamination and track contaminated foods to their destinations. Concerns about biological agents contaminating food or beverages led to the U.S. Bioterrorism Act of 2002. This Act requires those in the food supply chain to identify the immediate previous source (“one-back”) of all food received and the immediate subsequent recipient (“one-up”) of all food released, but recordkeeping remains seriously inadequate. In this article, we examine the role of radio frequency identification (RFID) in electronic record management (ERM) to improve supply chain operations and responses to public health crises.

Using Business Intelligence Tools to Help Manage Costs and Effectiveness of Business-to-Business Inside-Sales Programs

Abstract Record-high transportation costs and unprecedented travel difficulties are driving up the expenses and uncertainties associated with use of an outside sales team. As a result, sales managers operating in todays high-cost and high-risk environment need to invest in sophisticated data analytics to support inside sales teams that do not travel. This paper describes how predictive analytics, data mining, and other business intelligence tools help inside sales teams to effectively manage their costs and generate sales.

New product technology decisions in the US multi-market firm

Decision-making processes regarding new product technology in multiproduct organizations have been examined from three different perspectives: the chief executive officer (CEO), the chief operating officer (COO), and the chief technology officer (CTO). The study is a follow-on to initial exploratory research in this area and is based on data from 150 Fortune 500 companies that where selected because they listed their R&D spending in the firms annual report and the SECs 10 K. Three related, but different, questionnaires were sent to the CEO, the COO, and the CTO of these firms. The research hypothesis is that technically educated CEOs and COOs play a greater role in new product technology decision making in their firms and that these firms consider themselves technology leaders or at least strong technology followers. It is further hypothesized that the role of the CTO differs depending on the educational background of the CEO and COO. In addition, the use of a science advisory committee in such firms is explored. The findings are presented and discussed in detail.<<ETX>>

Legal Services Marketing: An Empirical Investigation of the Forecastability and Possible Interrelationship between Marriage Dissolutions, Personal Bankruptcies, and Unemployment

The following paper examines the longitudinal demand for two legal services, divorces and personal bankruptcies. For each service this paper presents the appropriate univariate model for forecasting. A causal relationship was suggested by a number of local attorneys in which bankruptcies were the result of untenable divorce settlements. Based upon this theory, the relationship between divorces, personal bankruptcies and an economic variable unemployment is examined.