Gylfi Zoega

A MIXED BLESSING: Natural Resources and Economic Growth

This paper diagnoses the symptoms of the Dutch disease in a two-sector stochastic endogenous growth model. A productive, low skill-intensive primary sector causes the currency to appreciate in real terms, thus hampering the development of a high skill-intensive secondary sector and thereby reducing growth. Moreover, the volatility of the primary sector generates real exchange rate uncertainty, and may thus reduce investment and learning in the secondary sector and hence also growth. Cross-section and panel regressions based on data for 125 countries in the period 1960–92 confirm a statistically significant inverse relationship between the size of the primary sector and economic growth, but not between the volatility of the real exchange rate and growth.

Unemployment Persistence: Does the Size of the Shock Matter ?

One of the stylized facts of unemployment is that shifts in its mean rate between decades and half-decades account for most of its variance. In this paper, we use a statistical analysis based on Markov switching regression models to identify the dates of infrequent changes in the mean of the unemployment rate series of fifteen countries. We find that in most countries, unemployment persistence is much reduced once the (infrequently) changing mean rate, induced by large shocks to unemployment, has been removed. We conclude that the observed persistence in unemployment appears to be consistent with multiple equilibria models and models with an endogeneous natural rate.

Unions, Work-Related Training, and Wages: Evidence for British Men

Using data for the years 1991–96 from the British Household Panel Survey, the authors investigate how union coverage affected work-related training and how the union-training link affected wages and wage growth for a sample of full-time men. Relative to non-covered workers, union-covered workers were more likely to receive training and also received more days of training. Among workers who received training, those with union coverage enjoyed greater returns to training and higher wage growth than did those without. While some of these results have been found in previous studies, others are new. The wage results, in particular, suggest a need for rethinking the conventional view that union wage formation in Britain reduces the incentives to acquire work-related training.

The British Beveridge curve: A tale of ten regions

This paper uses county-level data to estimate the timing and magnitude of shifts in aggregate and regional British Beveridge curves. We find that these shifts coincide with the business cycle rather than with hysteresis effects or with changes in regional mismatch. This implies that the Beveridge curve is a flawed device for separating the effects of structural changes from those of the business cycle.

Lessons from a collapse of a financial system

The paper draws lessons from the collapse of Iceland’s banking system in October 2008. The rapid expansion of the banking system following its privatization in the early 2000s is explained, as well as the inherent fragility due to the size of the banking system relative to the domestic economy and the central bank’s reserves, market manipulation enabling bank capital to expand rapidly and the weak and understaffed public institutions. Most of Iceland’s banking system was traditionally in state hands but was privatized and sold to politically favoured entities at the turn of the century, with laws and regulations subsequently changed to facilitate the expansion of the banking system. Political connections and the tacit support of the authorities enabled senior bank managers and key shareholders to extract significant private benefits while shifting risk to domestic and foreign taxpayers and foreign creditors. These problems were exacerbated by symptoms of what the paper terms the small country syndrome. The size of the banking sector made the central bank incapable of serving as the lender of last resort. The domestic supervisor, the central bank and the ministries in charge of economic affairs were understaffed and lacking in experience in how to manage a large financial sector. The rapid growth was also ultimately unsustainable due to high levels of leverage and a weak capital base due to both the rapid expansion of balance sheets and lending to finance investment in own shares. The episode demonstrates the importance of closely monitoring rapidly growing financial institutions and even possibly slowing growth when institutions are systemically important. One lesson to be drawn from the crisis relates to the role of politics in a financial crisis. The Icelandic authorities as a matter of policy encouraged the creation of an international banking centre. This involved the privatization and deregulation of the banking system, rules and regulations being relaxed and the neglect of financial supervision. Another lesson is that floating exchange rates can be hazardous in the presence of large capital flows. The central bank raised interest rates during the boom years in order to meet an inflation target. This created an interest rate differential with other countries that encourages a large volume of carry trades and incentivized domestic agents to borrow in foreign currency. Both conspired to create an asset price bubble, excessive currency appreciation and – counter-intuitively – high inflation. The result was that monetary policy as conducted was ineffective at curbing domestic demand. The eventual large depreciation of the currency made a large section of the economy insolvent. Finally, there are lessons about the European passport system in financial services and the common market. The Icelandic banks had the right to set up branches in the European Union by means of the passport on the explicit assumption that home regulators were exercising adequate controls. The collapse of the banks left the United Kingdom and the Netherlands with significant costs, demonstrating the inherent weakness in the passport when one member country can undercut the supervisory standards of other member countries. For the passport system to work, the home supervisor must be trustworthy. — Sigridur Benediktsdottir, Jon Danielsson and Gylfi Zoega

Trade surpluses and life-cycle saving behaviour

The national-income account identity and the life-cycle theory of consumption together imply that the current account should be a function of the age structure. A country with a high proportion of young and retired should have current account deficits. Using a panel of 84 countries, we find empirical support for this hypothesis.

Hiring and Firing: A Tale of Two Thresholds

The negative effect of quits on the willingness of firms to provide on‐the‐job training is well documented in the theoretical literature. Here we explore the strength of this effect by solving a firm’s dynamic optimization problem where there is uncertainty about future productivity and nonzero firing costs. We find that the degree to which quit rates affect hiring depends on the ratio of firing to hiring costs. As this ratio rises, the negative effect of quits becomes less important, eventually reversing itself. We also describe how quit rates affect the firing decision. We highlight some testable implications of our analysis.

Ownership and Growth

This article suggests how state enterprises can be incorporated into the theoretical and empirical growth literature. Specifically, it shows that if state enterprises are less efficient than private firms, invest less, employ less skilled labor, and are less eager to adopt new technology, then a large state enterprise sector tends to be associated with slow economic growth, all else remaining the same. The empirical evidence for 1978-92 indicates that, through a mixture of these channels, an increase in the share of state enterprises in employment by one standard deviation could reduce per capita growth by one to two percentage points a year from one country to another.

Challenges facing natural rate theory

Abstract This paper attempts to test the natural rate hypothesis by looking at historical unemployment data for France, the UK and the US. We find that the unemployment series can be described as stationary around an infrequently changing mean. Moreover, that the speed of convergence towards mean unemployment is slower when unemployment is high and differs across the three countries: the two European countries having more persistence. We do not find any evidence that the persistence of a change in unemployment is a function of the size of the change. We conclude that the data are consistent with multiple equilibria models where large shocks bring the economy from one equilibrium to another, and also with models with a moving natural rate.

The Modigliani ‘puzzle’

Medium- to long-term changes in unemployment appear to be closely correlated with medium- to long-term changes in private investment. This becomes a puzzle once we abandon the Keynesian framework as an explanation for medium-term movements in unemployment and replace it with the natural-rate framework of Friedman and Phelps. It also opens up the possibility that factors affecting private saving and investment may impinge directly on the natural rate of unemployment. One such factor is the age structure of the population. We explore these possibilities and find a surprisingly robust medium- to long-run relationship between investment and unemployment both over time and across countries.