György Kröel-Dulay

Quantifying global soil carbon losses in response to warming

The majority of the Earth’s terrestrial carbon is stored in the soil. If anthropogenic warming stimulates the loss of this carbon to the atmosphere, it could drive further planetary warming. Despite evidence that warming enhances carbon fluxes to and from the soil, the net global balance between these responses remains uncertain. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of warming-induced changes in soil carbon stocks by assembling data from 49 field experiments located across North America, Europe and Asia. We find that the effects of warming are contingent on the size of the initial soil carbon stock, with considerable losses occurring in high-latitude areas. By extrapolating this empirical relationship to the global scale, we provide estimates of soil carbon sensitivity to warming that may help to constrain Earth system model projections. Our empirical relationship suggests that global soil carbon stocks in the upper soil horizons will fall by 30 ± 30 petagrams of carbon to 203 ± 161 petagrams of carbon under one degree of warming, depending on the rate at which the effects of warming are realized. Under the conservative assumption that the response of soil carbon to warming occurs within a year, a business-as-usual climate scenario would drive the loss of 55 ± 50 petagrams of carbon from the upper soil horizons by 2050. This value is around 12–17 per cent of the expected anthropogenic emissions over this period. Despite the considerable uncertainty in our estimates, the direction of the global soil carbon response is consistent across all scenarios. This provides strong empirical support for the idea that rising temperatures will stimulate the net loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere, driving a positive land carbon–climate feedback that could accelerate climate change.

Increased sensitivity to climate change in disturbed ecosystems

Human domination of the biosphere includes changes to disturbance regimes, which push many ecosystems towards early-successional states. Ecological theory predicts that early-successional ecosystems are more sensitive to perturbations than mature systems, but little evidence supports this relationship for the perturbation of climate change. Here we show that vegetation (abundance, species richness and species composition) across seven European shrublands is quite resistant to moderate experimental warming and drought, and responsiveness is associated with the dynamic state of the ecosystem, with recently disturbed sites responding to treatments. Furthermore, most of these responses are not rapid (2-5 years) but emerge over a longer term (7-14 years). These results suggest that successional state influences the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate change, and that ecosystems recovering from disturbances may be sensitive to even modest climatic changes. A research bias towards undisturbed ecosystems might thus lead to an underestimation of the impacts of climate change.

Carbon and nitrogen balances for six shrublands across Europe

[1] Shrublands constitute significant and important parts of European landscapes providing a large number of important ecosystem services. Biogeochemical cycles in these ecosystems have gained little attention relative to forests and grassland systems, but data on such cycles are required for developing and testing ecosystem models. As climate change progresses, the potential feedback from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere through changes in carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and general knowledge on biogeochemical cycles becomes increasingly important. Here we present carbon and nitrogen balances of six shrublands along a climatic gradient across the European continent. The aim of the study was to provide a basis for assessing the range and variability in carbon storage in European shrublands. Across the sites the net carbon storage in the systems ranged from 1,163 g C m � 2 to 18,546 g C m � 2 , and the systems ranged from being net sinks (126 g C m � 2 a � 1 ) to being net sources (� 536 g C m � 2 a � 1 ) of carbon with the largest storage and sink of carbon at wet and cold climatic conditions. The soil carbon store dominates the carbon budget at all sites and in particular at the site with a cold and wet climate where soil C constitutes 95% of the total carbon in the ecosystem. Respiration of carbon from the soil organic matter pool dominated the carbon loss at all sites while carbon loss from aboveground litter decomposition appeared less important. Total belowground carbon allocation was more than 5 times aboveground litterfall carbon which is significantly greater than the factor of 2 reported in a global analysis of forest data. Nitrogen storage was also dominated by the soil pools generally showing small losses except when atmospheric N input was high. The study shows that in the future a climate-driven land cover change between grasslands and shrublands in Europe will likely lead to increased ecosystem C where shrublands are promoted and less where grasses are promoted. However, it also emphasizes that if feedbacks on the global carbon cycle are to be predicted it is critically important to quantify and understand belowground carbon allocation and processes as well as soil carbon pools, particularly on wet organic soils, rather than plant functional change as the soil stores dominate the overall budget and fluxes of carbon.

Few multiyear precipitation-reduction experiments find a shift in the productivity-precipitation relationship.

Well-defined productivity-precipitation relationships of ecosystems are needed as benchmarks for the validation of land models used for future projections. The productivity-precipitation relationship may be studied in two ways: the spatial approach relates differences in productivity to those in precipitation among sites along a precipitation gradient (the spatial fit, with a steeper slope); the temporal approach relates interannual productivity changes to variation in precipitation within sites (the temporal fits, with flatter slopes). Precipitation-reduction experiments in natural ecosystems represent a complement to the fits, because they can reduce precipitation below the natural range and are thus well suited to study potential effects of climate drying. Here, we analyse the effects of dry treatments in eleven multiyear precipitation-manipulation experiments, focusing on changes in the temporal fit. We expected that structural changes in the dry treatments would occur in some experiments, thereby reducing the intercept of the temporal fit and displacing the productivity-precipitation relationship downward the spatial fit. The majority of experiments (72%) showed that dry treatments did not alter the temporal fit. This implies that current temporal fits are to be preferred over the spatial fit to benchmark land-model projections of productivity under future climate within the precipitation ranges covered by the experiments. Moreover, in two experiments, the intercept of the temporal fit unexpectedly increased due to mechanisms that reduced either water loss or nutrient loss. The expected decrease of the intercept was observed in only one experiment, and only when distinguishing between the late and the early phases of the experiment. This implies that we currently do not know at which precipitation-reduction level or at which experimental duration structural changes will start to alter ecosystem productivity. Our study highlights the need for experiments with multiple, including more extreme, dry treatments, to identify the precipitation boundaries within which the current temporal fits remain valid.

Regeneration of sandy old-fields in the forest steppe region of Hungary

Abstract Abandoned agricultural fields are potential sites for the regeneration of natural vegetation, and land abandonment is a widespread phenomenon in the developed world. We studied the vegetation of 161 old-fields in the Kiskunság, central Hungary. Old-fields were categorized into three age groups based on historical aerial photographs: fields abandoned 1–7, 8–20, and 21–57 years ago. Old-field vegetation was compared to potential target communities (open and closed grassland and forest) based on the richness and cover of predefined species groups (all species, neophytes, characteristic species of natural habitats). In general, the medium- and old-aged old-fields only slightly differed from each other, and were more similar to open natural grasslands than to closed ones, although they occupied environments that were intermediate between open and closed grasslands. Forest species establishment was limited in the old-fields; therefore, forest regeneration seems to be unlikely on old-fields at a decadal time scale. The dominance of alien species only slightly declined with old-field age and was much higher than in natural grasslands. The finding that open grassland communities recovered on these old-field sites, but were accompanied by stable alien components, suggests that these communities could be regarded as a new combination of species, or novel communities, with a considerably high conservation value.

Distribution of plant species at a biome transition zone in New Mexico

Abstract Question: Is there a difference in plant species and life form composition between two major patch types at a biome transition zone? Are subordinate species associated with different patch types at the shortgrass steppe - Chihuahuan desert grassland transition zone? Is this association related to differences in soil texture between patch types and the geographic range of associated species? Location: central New Mexico, USA. Methods: Patches dominated by either Bouteloua gracilis, the dominant species in the shortgrass steppe, or Bouteloua eriopoda, dominant species in the Chihuahuan desert grasslands, were sampled for the occurrence of subordinate species and soil texture within a 1500-ha transitional mosaic of patches. Results: Of the 52 subordinate species analysed, 16 species were associated with B. gracilis-dominated patches and 12 species with B. eriopoda-dominated patches. Patches dominated by B. gracilis were richer in annual grasses and forbs, whereas patches dominated by B. eriopoda contained more perennials forbs and shrubs. Soils of B. gracilis-dominated patches had higher clay and lower rock contents compared with soils of B. eriopoda-dominated patches. Differences in species characteristics of the dominant species as well as differences in soil texture between patch types contribute to patch-scale variation in composition. The association of species to patch types was not related to their geographic range and occurrence in the adjacent biomes. Conclusions: Patch types at this biome transition zone have characteristic life-form and species composition, but species are associated to patch types due to local constraints, independently from their affinity to the adjacent biomes. Nomenclature: Anon. (1999). Abbreviation: SNWR = Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge.

Temperature Dependence of Soil Respiration Modulated by Thresholds in Soil Water Availability Across European Shrubland Ecosystems

Soil respiration (SR) is a major component of the global carbon cycle and plays a fundamental role in ecosystem feedback to climate change. Empirical modelling is an essential tool for predicting ecosystem responses to environmental change, and also provides important data for calibrating and corroborating process-based models. In this study, we evaluated the performance of three empirical temperature–SR response functions (exponential, Lloyd–Taylor and Gaussian) at seven shrublands located within three climatic regions (Atlantic, Mediterranean and Continental) across Europe. We investigated the performance of SR models by including the interaction between soil moisture and soil temperature. We found that the best fit for the temperature functions depended on the site-specific climatic conditions. Including soil moisture, we identified thresholds in the three different response functions that improved the model fit in all cases. The direct soil moisture effect on SR, however, was weak at the annual time scale. We conclude that the exponential soil temperature function may only be a good predictor for SR in a narrow temperature range, and that extrapolating predictions for future climate based on this function should be treated with caution as modelled outputs may underestimate SR. The addition of soil moisture thresholds improved the model fit at all sites, but had a far greater ecological significance in the wet Atlantic shrubland where a fundamental change in the soil CO2 efflux would likely have an impact on the whole carbon budget.

Establishment of a cross-European field site network in the ALARM project for assessing large-scale changes in biodiversity

The field site network (FSN) plays a central role in conducting joint research within all Assessing Large-scale Risks for biodiversity with tested Methods (ALARM) modules and provides a mechanism for integrating research on different topics in ALARM on the same site for measuring multiple impacts on biodiversity. The network covers most European climates and biogeographic regions, from Mediterranean through central European and boreal to subarctic. The project links databases with the European-wide field site network FSN, including geographic information system (GIS)-based information to characterise the test location for ALARM researchers for joint on-site research. Maps are provided in a standardised way and merged with other site-specific information. The application of GIS for these field sites and the information management promotes the use of the FSN for research and to disseminate the results. We conclude that ALARM FSN sites together with other research sites in Europe jointly could be used as a future backbone for research proposals.

People move but cultivated plants stay: abandoned farmsteads support the persistence and spread of alien plants

Agricultural land abandonment and rural depopulation are frequent phenomena in many parts of the developed world that often result in considerable conservation benefits. Although settlements are hotspots of alien species that may threaten ecosystem recovery, no study to date has systematically assessed the persistence and spread of cultivated alien plants following the abandonment of rural settlements. By examining 190 farmsteads abandoned between 1956 and 2005 in central Hungary, we show that cultivated species can remain for decades at abandoned settlements, with many species occurring in similar frequency in long-ago and recently abandoned farmsteads. Many species spread vegetatively, and persistence through time was not related to estimated longevity for woody species. Furthermore, by analysing vegetation samples from the surrounding landscape, we found that some of these cultivated species also occurred outside farmsteads in areas where they had not been planted, most often in tree plantations. In addition, the number of escaped cultivated species occurring in tree plantations was positively related to farmstead density, suggesting a prominent role of farmsteads as a source. Our results suggest that rural settlements and rural depopulation provide a special opportunity for cultivated alien plants. These special habitats serve as incubators, where many cultivated species can survive long-term, and even spread to the surrounding landscape. We conclude that farmsteads have a long-lasting local and landscape-scale legacy, and imprint a unique signature on the flora of their broader region.

Shrubland primary production and soil respiration diverge along European climate gradient

Above- and belowground carbon (C) stores of terrestrial ecosystems are vulnerable to environmental change. Ecosystem C balances in response to environmental changes have been quantified at individual sites, but the magnitudes and directions of these responses along environmental gradients remain uncertain. Here we show the responses of ecosystem C to 8-12 years of experimental drought and night-time warming across an aridity gradient spanning seven European shrublands using indices of C assimilation (aboveground net primary production: aNPP) and soil C efflux (soil respiration: Rs). The changes of aNPP and Rs in response to drought indicated that wet systems had an overall risk of increased loss of C but drier systems did not. Warming had no consistent effect on aNPP across the climate gradient, but suppressed Rs more at the drier sites. Our findings suggest that above- and belowground C fluxes can decouple, and provide no evidence of acclimation to environmental change at a decadal timescale. aNPP and Rs especially differed in their sensitivity to drought and warming, with belowground processes being more sensitive to environmental change.