H. Craig Davis

Alternative Approaches to the Estimation of Economic Impacts Resulting from Supply Constraints: Reply

The standard Leontief input-output approach to estimating the impacts resulting from changes in final demands is inappropriate to apply to cases in which the gross outputs of particular sectors of the economy are constrained because of conditions such as strikes or natural disasters. In this paper two alternative approaches are presented for estimating the impacts on production resulting from supply-constraints. The first is based on standard interindustry purchase coefficients, the second on sales coefficients. Each model is applied in turn to estimate the impact on the Kern County, California economy of a hypothetical curtailment of State-supplied water to the Countys agricultural activities. The empirical results, as well as the underlying assumptions, of each approach are compared and discussed.

Interindustry approaches to the analysis of a supply disruption of a critical resource

Abstract Estimating the impact of a disruption of the supply of a critical resource to an economy involves two tasks: estimation of the distribution of the diminished supply among the direct users of the resource and estimation of the effects on the rest of the economy of the direct users reduced production. Input-output (I-O) analysis is well suited to these tasks, particularly the second, because of the models industrial detail and general equilibrium framework. Under the assumption of fixed coefficients, alternative variants of the I-O model are considered and a recommendation made. Further, it is suggested that the scope for varying the models coefficients, because of the potential for input substitution, be investigated on a case by case basis.

Combining intersectoral flows and shift-share techniques: A hybrid regional forecasting model

Summary and conclusionsIntersectoral flows analysis is a static technique. There is no dynamic or growth element. Shift-share analysis on the other hand is a growth oriented analytical tool with no capability for modelling the internal structure of a regional economy. It therefore seems useful to combine the shift-share and intersectoral flows approaches. The shift parameters provide a growth component for the final demand sectors of the intersectoral flows matrix.Externalities are incorporated into the model through the shift parameters which drive the final demand categories of the regional economy. This is deemed to be a fruitful approach at present because it can incorporate a variety of linear and non-linear externalities and is amenable to simulation. It also overcomes in theory some of the principal criticisms of shift-share. The economy, flexibility and potential rigour of this approach appears to us to provide the most likely operational approach to externalities in the immediate future.

Issues in municipal public land banking

The alleged benefits of municipal public land banking are discussed in the context of the following issues: 1) lower housing costs through lower land prices; 2) the elimination of private speculation in land on the urban fringe; and 3) more effective planning of future urban expansion. The arguments presented are illustrated with examples from the Canadian experience. It is concluded that the present case for municipal public land banks as an alternative to existing planning controls is not a convincing one.

A compositional approach to regional socio-economic impact assessment

Abstract Economic and social impact assessments of developmental initiatives are often undertaken by independent analysts and rarely is an integral approach adopted. It is here argued that economic impact assessment can facilitate social impact assessment and simultaneously improve the accuracy of employment estimation, by distinguishing between various socio-demographic groups. In turn, the assessment of the socio-demographic composition of the local community has direct implications for the accuracy of the economic impact assessment. A methodology for a more integrated approach to economic and social impact assessment is developed herein and is empirically estimated. Compared to traditional, independent approaches, it is held that this approach yields improved estimates of changes in a communitys employment and socio-demographic structure.

Economic base and input-output multipliers a comparison for Vancouver, B. C.

Employment multipliers for the metropolitan economy of Vancouver are derived from both economic base and input-out-put models of the region. The principal shortcomings of the location quotient approach in delineating the economic base of a region are reviewed, and empirical estimates are made of the understatement of exports resulting from this approach in light of survey data. The survey data and the authors judgment are then employed to yield a base employment multiplier of 1.99 for the region. Sectoral input-output employment multipliers are presented and conditions are derived under which an aggregated I-O multiplier is equal to the multiplier associated with the economic base model.

Air pollution in California: manufacturing vs. services

Relative to manufacturing, service activities are often considered by planners and officials to generate considerably less environmental pollution. This hypothesis is tested by means of an examination of the economic linkages of both manufacturing and service activities and of the resulting direct and indirect emissions of five air pollutants per dollar of output in the California statewide air basin and in four regional basins within the state. Overall acceptance or rejection of the hypothesis depends in part on the particular pollutant and air basin considered but, most importantly, on the judgement as to what activities are to be considered as “service” activities.