H. Irene Hall

Estimation of HIV Incidence in the United States

CONTEXT Incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in the United States has not been directly measured. New assays that differentiate recent vs long-standing HIV infections allow improved estimation of HIV incidence. OBJECTIVE To estimate HIV incidence in the United States. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS Remnant diagnostic serum specimens from patients 13 years or older and newly diagnosed with HIV during 2006 in 22 states were tested with the BED HIV-1 capture enzyme immunoassay to classify infections as recent or long-standing. Information on HIV cases was reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention through June 2007. Incidence of HIV in the 22 states during 2006 was estimated using a statistical approach with adjustment for testing frequency and extrapolated to the United States. Results were corroborated with back-calculation of HIV incidence for 1977-2006 based on HIV diagnoses from 40 states and AIDS incidence from 50 states and the District of Columbia. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Estimated HIV incidence. RESULTS An estimated 39,400 persons were diagnosed with HIV in 2006 in the 22 states. Of 6864 diagnostic specimens tested using the BED assay, 2133 (31%) were classified as recent infections. Based on extrapolations from these data, the estimated number of new infections for the United States in 2006 was 56,300 (95% confidence interval [CI], 48,200-64,500); the estimated incidence rate was 22.8 per 100,000 population (95% CI, 19.5-26.1). Forty-five percent of infections were among black individuals and 53% among men who have sex with men. The back-calculation (n = 1.230 million HIV/AIDS cases reported by the end of 2006) yielded an estimate of 55,400 (95% CI, 50,000-60,800) new infections per year for 2003-2006 and indicated that HIV incidence increased in the mid-1990s, then slightly declined after 1999 and has been stable thereafter. CONCLUSIONS This study provides the first direct estimates of HIV incidence in the United States using laboratory technologies previously implemented only in clinic-based settings. New HIV infections in the United States remain concentrated among men who have sex with men and among black individuals.

Estimated HIV Incidence in the United States, 2006–2009

Background The estimated number of new HIV infections in the United States reflects the leading edge of the epidemic. Previously, CDC estimated HIV incidence in the United States in 2006 as 56,300 (95% CI: 48,200–64,500). We updated the 2006 estimate and calculated incidence for 2007–2009 using improved methodology. Methodology We estimated incidence using incidence surveillance data from 16 states and 2 cities and a modification of our previously described stratified extrapolation method based on a sample survey approach with multiple imputation, stratification, and extrapolation to account for missing data and heterogeneity of HIV testing behavior among population groups. Principal Findings Estimated HIV incidence among persons aged 13 years and older was 48,600 (95% CI: 42,400–54,700) in 2006, 56,000 (95% CI: 49,100–62,900) in 2007, 47,800 (95% CI: 41,800–53,800) in 2008 and 48,100 (95% CI: 42,200–54,000) in 2009. From 2006 to 2009 incidence did not change significantly overall or among specific race/ethnicity or risk groups. However, there was a 21% (95% CI:1.9%–39.8%; p = 0.017) increase in incidence for people aged 13–29 years, driven by a 34% (95% CI: 8.4%–60.4%) increase in young men who have sex with men (MSM). There was a 48% increase among young black/African American MSM (12.3%–83.0%; p<0.001). Among people aged 13–29, only MSM experienced significant increases in incidence, and among 13–29 year-old MSM, incidence increased significantly among young, black/African American MSM. In 2009, MSM accounted for 61% of new infections, heterosexual contact 27%, injection drug use (IDU) 9%, and MSM/IDU 3%. Conclusions/Significance Overall, HIV incidence in the United States was relatively stable 2006–2009; however, among young MSM, particularly black/African American MSM, incidence increased. HIV continues to be a major public health burden, disproportionately affecting several populations in the United States, especially MSM and racial and ethnic minorities. Expanded, improved, and targeted prevention is necessary to reduce HIV incidence.

Cancer risk in people infected with human immunodeficiency virus in the United States.

Data are limited regarding cancer risk in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)‐infected persons with modest immunosuppression, before the onset of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). For some cancers, risk may be affected by highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) widely available since 1996. We linked HIV/AIDS and cancer registries in Colorado, Florida and New Jersey. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) compared cancer risk in HIV‐infected persons (initially AIDS‐free) during the 5‐year period after registration with the general population. Poisson regression was used to compare incidence across subgroups, adjusting for demographic factors. Among 57,350 HIV‐infected persons registered during 1991–2002 (median CD4 count 491 cells/mm3), 871 cancers occurred during follow‐up. Risk was elevated for Kaposi sarcoma (KS, SIR 1,300 [n = 173 cases]), non‐Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL, 7.3 [n = 203]), cervical cancer (2.9 [n = 28]) and several non‐AIDS‐defining malignancies, including Hodgkin lymphoma (5.6 [n = 36]) and cancers of the lung (2.6 [n = 109]) and liver (2.7 [n = 14]). KS and NHL incidence declined over time but nonetheless remained elevated in 1996–2002. Incidence increased in 1996–2002 compared to 1991–1995 for Hodgkin lymphoma (relative risk 2.7, 95%CI 1.0–7.1) and liver cancer (relative risk infinite, one‐sided 95%CI 1.1‐infinity). Non‐AIDS‐defining cancers comprised 31.4% of cancers in 1991–1995, versus 58.0% in 1996–2002. For KS and NHL, risk was inversely related to CD4 count, but these associations attenuated after 1996. We conclude that KS and NHL incidence declined markedly in recent years, likely reflecting HAART‐related improvements in immunity, while incidence of some non‐AIDS‐defining cancers increased. These trends have led to a shift in the spectrum of cancer among HIV‐infected persons.

Cancer Burden in the HIV-Infected Population in the United States

BACKGROUND Effective antiretroviral therapy has reduced the risk of AIDS and dramatically prolonged the survival of HIV-infected people in the United States. Consequently, an increasing number of HIV-infected people are at risk of non-AIDS-defining cancers that typically occur at older ages. We estimated the annual number of cancers in the HIV-infected population, both with and without AIDS, in the United States. METHODS Incidence rates for individual cancer types were obtained from the HIV/AIDS Cancer Match Study by linking 15 HIV and cancer registries in the United States. Estimated counts of the US HIV-infected and AIDS populations were obtained from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention surveillance data. We obtained estimated counts of AIDS-defining (ie, Kaposi sarcoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and cervical cancer) and non-AIDS-defining cancers in the US AIDS population during 1991-2005 by multiplying cancer incidence rates and AIDS population counts, stratified by year, age, sex, race and ethnicity, transmission category, and AIDS-relative time. We tested trends in counts and standardized incidence rates using linear regression models. We multiplied overall cancer rates and HIV-only (HIV infected, without AIDS) population counts, available from 34 US states during 2004-2007, to estimate cancers in the HIV-only population. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS The US AIDS population expanded fourfold from 1991 to 2005 (96,179 to 413,080) largely because of an increase in the number of people aged 40 years or older. During 1991-2005, an estimated 79 656 cancers occurred in the AIDS population. From 1991-1995 to 2001-2005, the estimated number of AIDS-defining cancers decreased by greater than threefold (34,587 to 10,325 cancers; P(trend) < .001), whereas non-AIDS-defining cancers increased by approximately threefold (3193 to 10,059 cancers; P(trend) < .001). From 1991-1995 to 2001-2005, estimated counts increased for anal (206 to 1564 cancers), liver (116 to 583 cancers), prostate (87 to 759 cancers), and lung cancers (875 to 1882 cancers), and Hodgkin lymphoma (426 to 897 cancers). In the HIV-only population in 34 US states, an estimated 2191 non-AIDS-defining cancers occurred during 2004-2007, including 454 lung, 166 breast, and 154 anal cancers. CONCLUSIONS Over a 15-year period (1991-2005), increases in non-AIDS-defining cancers were mainly driven by growth and aging of the AIDS population. This growing burden requires targeted cancer prevention and treatment strategies.

Differences in human immunodeficiency virus care and treatment among subpopulations in the United States.

IMPORTANCE Early diagnosis of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, prompt linkage to and sustained care, and antiretroviral therapy are associated with reduced individual morbidity, mortality, and transmission of the virus. However, levels of these indicators may differ among population groups with HIV. Disparities in care and treatment may contribute to the higher incidence rates among groups with higher prevalence of HIV. OBJECTIVE To examine differences between groups of persons living with HIV by sex, age, race/ethnicity, and transmission category at essential steps in the continuum of care. DESIGN AND SETTING We obtained data from the National HIV Surveillance System of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to determine the number of persons living with HIV who are aware and unaware of their infection using back-calculation models. We calculated the percentage of persons linked to care within 3 months of diagnosis on the basis of CD4 level and viral load test results. We estimated the percentages of persons retained in care, prescribed antiretroviral therapy, and with viral suppression using data from the Medical Monitoring Project, a surveillance system of persons receiving HIV care in select areas representative of all such persons in the United States. PARTICIPANTS All HIV-infected persons in the United States. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Percentage of persons living with HIV who are aware of their infection, linked to care, retained in care, receiving antiretroviral therapy, and achieving viral suppression. RESULTS Of the estimated 1,148,200 persons living with HIV in 2009 in the United States, 81.9% had been diagnosed, 65.8% were linked to care, 36.7% were retained in care, 32.7% were prescribed antiretroviral therapy, and 25.3% had a suppressed viral load (≤200 copies/mL). Overall, 857 276 persons with HIV had not achieved viral suppression, including 74.8% of male, 79.0% of black, 73.9% of Hispanic/Latino, and 70.3% of white persons. The percentage of blacks in each step of the continuum was lower than that for whites, but these differences were not statistically significant. Among persons with HIV who were 13 to 24 years of age, only 40.5% had received a diagnosis and 30.6% were linked to care. Persons aged 25 to 34, 35 to 44, and 45 to 54 years were all significantly less likely to achieve viral suppression than were persons aged 55 to 64 years. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Significant age disparities exist at each step of the continuum of care. Additional efforts are needed to ensure that all persons with HIV receive a diagnosis and optimal care to reduce morbidity, mortality, disparities in care and treatment, and ultimately HIV transmission. Ensuring that people stay in care and receive treatment will increase the proportion of HIV-infected individuals who achieve and maintain a suppressed viral load.

Human immunodeficiency virus transmission at each step of the care continuum in the United States.

IMPORTANCE Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission risk is primarily dependent on behavior (sexual and injection drug use) and HIV viral load. National goals emphasize maximizing coverage along the HIV care continuum, but the effect on HIV prevention is unknown. OBJECTIVES To estimate the rate and number of HIV transmissions attributable to persons at each of the following 5 HIV care continuum steps: HIV infected but undiagnosed, HIV diagnosed but not retained in medical care, retained in care but not prescribed antiretroviral therapy, prescribed antiretroviral therapy but not virally suppressed, and virally suppressed. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS A multistep, static, deterministic model that combined population denominator data from the National HIV Surveillance System with detailed clinical and behavioral data from the National HIV Behavioral Surveillance System and the Medical Monitoring Project to estimate the rate and number of transmissions along the care continuum. This analysis was conducted January 2013 to June 2014. The findings reflect the HIV-infected population in the United States in 2009. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Estimated rate and number of HIV transmissions. RESULTS Of the estimated 1,148,200 persons living with HIV in 2009, there were 207,600 (18.1%) who were undiagnosed, 519,414 (45.2%) were aware of their infection but not retained in care, 47,453 (4.1%) were retained in care but not prescribed ART, 82,809 (7.2%) were prescribed ART but not virally suppressed, and 290,924 (25.3%) were virally suppressed. Persons who are HIV infected but undiagnosed (18.1% of the total HIV-infected population) and persons who are HIV diagnosed but not retained in medical care (45.2% of the population) were responsible for 91.5% (30.2% and 61.3%, respectively) of the estimated 45,000 HIV transmissions in 2009. Compared with persons who are HIV infected but undiagnosed (6.6 transmissions per 100 person-years), persons who were HIV diagnosed and not retained in medical care were 19.0% (5.3 transmissions per 100 person-years) less likely to transmit HIV, and persons who were virally suppressed were 94.0% (0.4 transmissions per 100 person-years) less likely to transmit HIV. Men, those who acquired HIV via male-to-male sexual contact, and persons 35 to 44 years old were responsible for the most HIV transmissions by sex, HIV acquisition risk category, and age group, respectively. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Sequential steps along the HIV care continuum were associated with reduced HIV transmission rates. Improvements in HIV diagnosis and retention in care, as well as reductions in sexual and drug use risk behavior, primarily for persons undiagnosed and not receiving antiretroviral therapy, would have a substantial effect on HIV transmission in the United States.

Update on the incidence and mortality from melanoma in the United States

BACKGROUND Increases in the incidence of malignant melanoma have been among the largest of all cancers in the United States. OBJECTIVE We report updated trends in melanoma rates among the US white population. METHODS Incidence and mortality rates were calculated for 1973 to 1994. Trends were examined with stratification by state, age, and sex, and by anatomic site, stage, and melanoma thickness at diagnosis. RESULTS Melanoma incidence and mortality rates increased dramatically from 1973 to 1994, rising 120.5% and 38.9%, respectively. In recent years, however, rates for most age-sex groups appeared to stabilize or even decline. Male patients continued to have higher incidence and mortality rates than female patients, but for both male and female patients the largest increases by site were for the trunk. A large proportion of melanomas were detected in the local stage and with a thickness less than 0.75 mm. CONCLUSION Prevention of sun exposure is recommended to reverse the high incidence rates of melanoma.

Undiagnosed HIV prevalence among adults and adolescents in the United States at the end of 2006.

Objectives:To describe adults/adolescents (age 13 years and older) living with undiagnosed HIV infection in the United States at the end of 2006. Methods:HIV prevalence and percentage undiagnosed were estimated from cumulative HIV incidence using an extended back-calculation model (using both HIV and AIDS data, the time of first diagnosis with HIV, and disease severity at diagnosis) and estimated cumulative deaths. Results:An estimated 1,106,400 adults/adolescents (95% confidence interval = 1,056,400-1,156,400) were living with HIV in the United States at the end of 2006; overall, 21.0% (232,700; 95% confidence interval = 221,200-244,200) were undiagnosed. Whites had the lowest percentage undiagnosed (18.8%) compared with Hispanics/Latinos (21.6%), blacks/African Americans (22.2%), American Indians/Alaska Natives (25.8%), and Asians/Pacific Islanders (29.5%; all P < 0.001). Persons with a behavioral risk of injection drug use (IDU) had the lowest percentage undiagnosed (female IDU: 13.7% and male IDU: 14.5%); men exposed through heterosexual contact had the highest (26.7%) followed by men who have sex with men (23.5%). Conclusions:Differences in undiagnosed HIV were evident across demographic and behavior groups. Effective testing programs and early access to treatment and prevention services are necessary to reduce undiagnosed HIV infections and HIV prevalence.

Prevalence of transmitted drug resistance associated mutations and HIV-1 subtypes in new HIV-1 diagnoses, U.S.-2006.

Objective:To determine the distribution of HIV-1 subtypes and the prevalence of transmitted drug resistance-associated mutations (TDRM) among persons newly diagnosed with HIV-1 infection in the United States. Methods:We used sequence data from Variant, Atypical, and Resistant HIV Surveillance (VARHS) collected from newly diagnosed persons in 10 states and 1 county health department in 2006. To evaluate TDRM, we used a mutation list for surveillance of TDRM appropriate for the primarily subtype B HIV epidemic in the United States. Results:Sequences were obtained from 2030 of 10 860 persons newly diagnosed with HIV in 11 surveillance areas. Mutations associated with transmitted drug resistance occurred in 292 (14.6%) persons; TDRM associated with a specific drug class occurred in 156 (7.8%) for non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors, 111 (5.6%) for nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors and 90 (4.5%) for protease inhibitors. There were no significant differences in prevalence of TDRM by demographic characteristic. The HIV-1 subtype B was the most prevalent subtype occurring in 1922 (96.2%) persons; subtype C (1.3%) was the most prevalent non-B subtype. Conclusion:We presented a clade B-optimized mutation list for evaluating surveillance of TDRM in the United States and analyzed the largest collection of sequence data obtained from individuals newly diagnosed with HIV. The prevalence of TDRM in persons newly diagnosed with HIV is higher than in previous U.S. studies; however, this is not necessarily a significant trend. Continued reporting of sequence data for public health purposes from all sources will improve representativeness and accuracy in analyzing trends in transmitted drug resistance and genetic diversity.

HIV transmission rates from persons living with HIV who are aware and unaware of their infection.

Transmission rate modeling estimated secondary infections from those aware and unaware of their HIV infection. An estimated 49% of transmissions were from the 20% of persons living with HIV unaware of their infection. About eight transmissions would be averted per 100 persons newly aware of their infection; with more infections averted the higher the percentage of persons with viral suppression who can be linked to care. Improving all stages of HIV care would substantially reduce transmission rates.