H. Krag

Two-Line-Elements-Based Maneuver Detection Methods for Satellites in Low Earth Orbit

Two novel methods are developed for detecting space events based on the analysis of their two-line elements history. These methods are tuned for detecting orbital maneuvers of satellites and the characterization thereof. The first method detects nonnatural anomalous events in low Earth orbit based on a consistency check between arbitrary two-line element sets of the same object. The use of background models that enable one to estimate the variable noise in the two-line element consistencies for different orbital regimes is found to further increase the detection rate. The second method uses the time series of an object containing the orbital elements, or a derived quantity thereof, and evaluates it for any type of unexpected changes by methods from robust statistics and harmonic analysis. Both methods can process the entire two-line element catalog with a minimal operator interference while yielding good results in the different orbital regimes. The generated orbital maneuvering data are used to assess th...