H. Ligteringen

Implications of an Uncertain Future for Port Planning

The evolving function of a port, and many logistical, technological, and economic uncertainties under which it must operate, make the planning and design of these complex socio-technical infrastructures very challenging. A Master Plan of a port is the instrument by which the ports (expansion) strategy in the marketplace is defined. Therefore, a Port Master Plan needs to be dynamic and responsive to all external developments during its lifetime. The existing Master Planning approach is static and as a result it is poorly equipped to deal with many uncertainties in the port and shipping industry. A new approach is required. This article proposes an adaptive approach to planning that combines elements of Assumption-Based Planning (ABP), developed in the early 1990s, and Adaptive Policymaking (APM), developed in 2001. It identifies in a structured way the uncertainty in an existing plan, and subsequently improves its robustness and adaptability through taking actions either in the planning stage or by preparing actions in advance that can be taken as the uncertainties resolve themselves. The article illustrates this approach by applying it to the current plan for Maasvlakte 2, the ongoing port expansion of Rotterdam in The Netherlands. The value of this proactive and dynamic approach lies in its manner of dealing with uncertainties. It leads planners to recognize vulnerabilities in a plan and incorporate strategies for dealing with them, adapting to new developments, and building in capacity for taking advantage of new opportunities. The objective of using this adaptive approach is to realize a Master Plan robust across many futures, so that the port can meet the requirements of its stakeholders during its entire lifetime.

Vessel Speed, Course, and Path Analysis in the Botlek Area of the Port of Rotterdam, Netherlands

Because vessel traffic in ports and waterways is growing quickly, much attention has been given to maritime traffic safety and port capacity. Many simulation models have been used for predicting traffic safety and port capacity in ports and waterways. However, maritime traffic models have considered only a few aspects; the influence on safety of human behavior and external factors has not been included. An analysis based on data from an automatic identification system was performed under various external conditions in an investigation of vessel behavior and external influencing factors. The study area included a junction and a slight bend with high maritime traffic density within the port of Rotterdam, Netherlands. Vessels were classified according to type and gross tonnage. Equidistant cross sections approximately perpendicular to the navigation direction were used for investigation of vessel behavior, including speed, course, and path for each vessel category. The influence of external factors (wind and visibility) on vessel behavior was identified through a comparison with the behavior of unhindered vessels. In the analysis, specific thresholds were set for selecting external conditions and eliminating the influence of encounters. The analysis of unhindered vessels for each vessel category provided insight into vessel behavior. The results revealed that wind had an influence on vessel speed and that visibility affected vessel speed, course, and path. Analysis results can be used as input for the development of a new maritime traffic model, as well as for its verification and validation.

Dealing with uncertainty in design of port infrastructure systems

Ports exist by the grace of international trade. In the volatile and uncertain environment of globalization, liberalization, rapidly changing technologies, competition, threats and budgets, this trade is highly unpredictable and investments in port infrastructure therefore highly risky. The aim of this paper is to establish that the uncertainties due to these unexpected developments cannot be actively managed through traditional approach of scenario building for demand forecasting but only through flexible and evolutionary designs.

Nautical traffic simulation with multi-agent system for safety

This paper shows a new simulation approach for maritime safety assessment. It describes a nautical traffic simulation model for straight waterways based on multi-agent system. The behavior of the ships is simulated with an autonomous dynamic ship maneuvering model, taking into account the movements in different local circumstances. AIS data (Automatic Identification System) is used to calibrate the model and for model verification. The ODD protocol (Overview, Design concepts, Details) is used as a framework for the detailed description of the model. This paper demonstrates that collision avoidance in different encountering situations with different local environmental conditions is possible for traffic simulation in the future.

Floating cranes for container handling

Floating cranes could be used to increase the berth capacity for the largest container vessels, making it possible to reduce the vessel berth time. By adding floating cranes on the waterside of a berthed container vessel, the berth productivity could be increased without disturbing the landside operations. Containers would be loaded directly into barges, which could transport the containers to an inland barge terminal. This would not only reduce the pressure on the deep sea terminals and connecting road infrastructure, but could possibly also reduce the total handling costs for containers to and from the hinterland. This paper presents the findings of a study focusing on the feasibility of such a floating crane concept. The paper discusses the conceptual design of the crane itself, as well as its integration in the current logistic processes and its potential market.

Modeling human behavior in vessel maneuver simulation by optimal control and game theory

This paper presents an innovative way to model the decision-making process of the bridge team of a ship. The model aims to provide methods to include human decision making in comprehensive simulation models that can describe the movement of vessels, including hydrodynamic effects; external effects due to wind, current, and waves; waterway geometry; and the interaction with other vessels. The paper uses a simple model to describe a vessels dynamics and the impact of the control decisions on these dynamics, although generalization to more comprehensive maneuver models is straightforward. The mathematical modeling framework is presented on the basis of a set of behavioral assumptions. The model is described as a differential game in which the bridge team is assumed to react on the expected behavior of other vessels. Different behavioral strategies (risk prone, average risk, and neutral risk) lead to the different models described in the paper. The dynamics of the model are illustrated by simple examples. The results are plausible and clearly show the potential of the approach. The paper offers some direction for future development.

Influence of External Conditions and Vessel Encounters on Vessel Behavior in Ports and Waterways Using Automatic Identification System Data

The impact of many external factors, such as wind, visibility and current, on the behavior of vessels in ports and waterways has not been investigated systematically in existing maritime traffic models. In order to fill the current knowledge gap and provide a basis for developing a new model to effectively simulate maritime traffic, the influences of wind, visibility and current as well as vessel encounters on vessel behavior (vessel speed, course and relative distance to starboard bank) have been investigated in this study by analyzing Automatic Identification System data collected from the port of Rotterdam. It is found that wind, visibility, current and encounters have significant impact on the vessel speed and relative distance to starboard bank, while vessel course is mainly affected by current and encounters. The results also showed that the vessels would adapt their speed, course and relative distance to starboard bank during encounters. These findings showed the importance of considering external factors and encounters in simulating vessel behavior in restricted waterways and provide a starting point for building up more comprehensive maritime traffic models.

Vessel Route Choice Theory and Modeling

A new maritime traffic model describes vessel traffic in ports and inland waterways better. In this research, vessel behavior is categorized into a tactical level (route choice) and an operational level (dynamics of vessel behavior). This new maritime traffic model comprises two parts. The route choice model resulting in the vessels preferred route and the operational model describing the maneuvering behavior, including interactions between vessels. This paper presents the vessel route choice model, which is based on disutility or cost minimization. The cost is determined by characteristics of the infrastructure, such as expected sailing time and distance to the bank. It is assumed that the bridge team will try to follow a preferred route that minimizes the cost to the destination. To calculate this preferred route, the so-called “value function” is defined as the minimum disutility function in continuous time and space. Subsequently, the value function is solved with dynamic programming and a numerical solution approach. Data of unhindered vessel behavior in the Port of Rotterdam, Netherlands, collected with an automatic identification system, are used to calibrate the vessel route choice model. The calibrated results of the route choice model show plausible preferred routes in the research area, which aid understanding of the desired vessel behavior (route). These results could be used to improve vessel traffic management and provide a basis for predicting vessel behavior at the operational level.

Adaptive port planning using real options

The present volatile environment demands new ways of thinking and new tools for project planning, appraisal, and investment decisions for large scale port infrastructures. This paper proposes real options-based adaptive port planning which provides a framework for the planner to first identify critical uncertainties in the system and then, to examine, evaluate, and incorporate flexible options for handling these uncertainties. It includes a method for project evaluation, which enables the planner to make a trade-off between the value of incorporating flexibility and the cost of doing so, commonly termed real options analysis (ROA). The paper applies ROA to two cases in the port sector involving well known uncertainties, and demonstrates that in the face of uncertainty, a flexible option enhances the value of a project.

Verification of Route Choice Model and Operational Model of Vessel Traffic

Because of ever-increasing economic globalization, it is necessary to simulate vessel behavior for investigating safety and capacity in ports and inland waterways. A new maritime traffic model was developed; it comprises two parts: the route choice model and the operational model. This paper presents the operational model, which describes vessel sailing behavior by optimal control. In the operational model, the main behavioral assumption is that all actions of the bridge team, such as accelerating and turning, are executed to force the vessel to sail with the desired speed and course. In the proposed theory, deviating from the desired speed and course, accelerating, decelerating, and turning will provide disutility (cost) to the vessel. Through prediction and minimization of this disutility, the longitudinal and angular acceleration can be optimized and predict individual vessel sailing behavior. To verify the route choice model and the operational model, a case study was carried out; it applied the models to predict individual vessel behavior (path, speed, and course) in the entrance channel to Maasvlakte I at the Port of Rotterdam, Netherlands. The simulation results show a good prediction of the vessel path and vessel course. As no other model has been built specifically to predict vessel behavior in the port area, the current methods provide a fundamental basis for investigating vessel behavior in restricted waterways. In addition, this research showed the potential of the model to increase the safety and capacity of ports and inland waterways.