Hajime Uno

Erythropoietic response and outcomes in kidney disease and type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND Non–placebo-controlled trials of erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) comparing lower and higher hemoglobin targets in patients with chronic kidney disease indicate that targeting of a lower hemoglobin range may avoid ESA-associated risks. However, target-based strategies are confounded by each patients individual hematopoietic response. METHODS We assessed the relationship among the initial hemoglobin response to darbepoetin alfa after two weight-based doses, the hemoglobin level achieved after 4 weeks, the subsequent darbepoetin alfa dose, and outcomes in 1872 patients with chronic kidney disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus who were not receiving dialysis. We defined a poor initial response to darbepoetin alfa (which occurred in 471 patients) as the lowest quartile of percent change in hemoglobin level (<2%) after the first two standardized doses of the drug. RESULTS Patients who had a poor initial response to darbepoetin alfa had a lower average hemoglobin level at 12 weeks and during follow-up than did patients with a better hemoglobin response (a change in hemoglobin level ranging from 2 to 15% or more) (P<0.001 for both comparisons), despite receiving higher doses of darbepoetin alfa (median dose, 232 μg vs. 167 μg; P<0.001). Patients with a poor response, as compared with those with a better response, had higher rates of the composite cardiovascular end point (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.31; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.09 to 1.59) or death (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.78). CONCLUSIONS A poor initial hematopoietic response to darbepoetin alfa was associated with an increased subsequent risk of death or cardiovascular events as doses were escalated to meet target hemoglobin levels. Although the mechanism of this differential effect is not known, these findings raise concern about current target-based strategies for treating anemia in patients with chronic kidney disease. (Funded by Amgen; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00093015.)

Longitudinal and Circumferential Strain Rate, Left Ventricular Remodeling, and Prognosis After Myocardial Infarction

OBJECTIVES We sought to investigate the clinical prognostic value of longitudinal and circumferential strain (S) and strain rate (SR) in patients after high-risk myocardial infarction (MI). BACKGROUND Left ventricular (LV) contractile performance after MI is an important predictor of long-term outcome. Tissue deformation imaging might more closely reflect myocardial contractility than traditional measures of systolic functions. METHODS The VALIANT (Valsartan in Acute Myocardial Infarction Trial) Echo study enrolled 603 patients with LV dysfunction, heart failure, or both 5 days after MI. We measured global peak longitudinal S and systolic SR (SRs) from apical 4- and 2-chamber views and global circumferential S and SRs from parasternal short-axis view with speckle tracking software (Velocity Vector Imaging, Siemens, Inc., Mountain View, California). We related global S and SRs to LV remodeling at 20-month follow-up and to clinical outcomes. RESULTS Both longitudinal (mean: -5.1 ± 1.6 100/ms) and circumferential SRs (mean: -8.0 ± 2.8 100/ms) were predictive of death or hospital stay for heart failure (hazard ratio: 2.4, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.0 to 3.1, p < 0.001; hazard ratio: 1.3, 95% CI: 1.2 to 1.4, p < 0.001, respectively) after adjustment for clinical covariates by Cox proportional hazards, and longitudinal SRs further improved in predicting 18-month survivor on a model based on clinical and standard echocardiographic measures (increase in area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve: 0.13, p = 0.009). With multivariable logistic regression, circumferential SRs, but not longitudinal SRs, was strongly predictive of remodeling (odds ratio: 1.3, 95% CI: 1.1 to 1.4, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Both longitudinal and circumferential SRs were independent predictors of outcomes after MI, whereas only circumferential SRs was predictive of remodeling, suggesting that preserved circumferential function might serve to restrain ventricular enlargement after MI.

Pathogenesis of Sudden Unexpected Death in a Clinical Trial of Patients With Myocardial Infarction and Left Ventricular Dysfunction, Heart Failure, or Both

Background— The frequency of sudden unexpected death is highest in the early post-myocardial infarction (MI) period; nevertheless, 2 recent trials showed no improvement in mortality with early placement of an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator after MI. Methods and Results— To better understand the pathophysiological events that lead to sudden death after MI, we assessed autopsy records in a series of cases classified as sudden death events in patients from the VALsartan In Acute myocardial infarctioN Trial (VALIANT). Autopsy records were available in 398 cases (14% of deaths). We determined that 105 patients had clinical circumstances consistent with sudden death. On the basis of the autopsy findings, we assessed the probable cause of sudden death and evaluated how these causes varied with time after MI. Of 105 deaths considered sudden on clinical grounds, autopsy suggested the following causes: 3 index MIs in the first 7 days (2.9%); 28 recurrent MIs (26.6%); 13 cardiac ruptures (12.4%); 4 pump failures (3.8%); 2 other cardiovascular causes (stroke or pulmonary embolism; 1.9%); and 1 noncardiovascular cause (1%). Fifty-four cases (51.4%) had no acute specific autopsy evidence other than the index MI and were thus presumed arrhythmic. The percentage of sudden death due to recurrent MI or rupture was highest in the first month after the index MI. By contrast, after 3 months, the percentage of presumed arrhythmic death was higher than recurrent MI or rupture (&khgr;2=23.3, P<0.0001). Conclusions— Recurrent MI or cardiac rupture accounts for a high proportion of sudden death in the early period after acute MI, whereas arrhythmic death may be more likely subsequently. These findings may help explain the lack of benefit of early implantable cardioverter-defibrillator therapy.

Defibrotide for the treatment of severe hepatic veno-occlusive disease and multiorgan failure after stem cell transplantation: a multicenter, randomized, dose-finding trial.

Therapeutic options for severe hepatic veno-occlusive disease (VOD) are limited and outcomes are dismal, but early phase I/II studies have suggested promising activity and acceptable toxicity using the novel polydisperse oligonucleotide defibrotide. This randomized phase II dose-finding trial determined the efficacy of defibrotide in patients with severe VOD following hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) and identified an appropriate dose for future trials. Adult and pediatric patients received either lower-dose (arm A: 25 mg/kg/day; n = 75) or higher-dose (arm B: 40 mg/kg/day; n = 74) i.v. defibrotide administered in divided doses every 6 hours for > or =14 days or until complete response, VOD progression, or any unacceptable toxicity occurred. Overall complete response and day +100 post-HSCT survival rates were 46% and 42%, respectively, with no significant difference between treatment arms. The incidence of treatment-related adverse events was low (8% overall; 7% in arm A, 10% in arm B); there was no significant difference in the overall rate of adverse events between treatment arms. Early stabilization or decreased bilirubin was associated with better response and day +100 survival, and decreased plasminogen activator inhibitor type 1 (PAI-1) during treatment was associated with better outcome; changes were similar in both treatment arms. Defibrotide 25 or 40 mg/kg/day also appears effective in treating severe VOD following HSCT. In the absence of any differences in activity, toxicity or changes in PAI-1 level, defibrotide 25 mg/kg/day was selected for ongoing phase III trials in VOD.

Moving Beyond the Hazard Ratio in Quantifying the Between-Group Difference in Survival Analysis

In a longitudinal clinical study to compare two groups, the primary end point is often the time to a specific event (eg, disease progression, death). The hazard ratio estimate is routinely used to empirically quantify the between-group difference under the assumption that the ratio of the two hazard functions is approximately constant over time. When this assumption is plausible, such a ratio estimate may capture the relative difference between two survival curves. However, the clinical meaning of such a ratio estimate is difficult, if not impossible, to interpret when the underlying proportional hazards assumption is violated (ie, the hazard ratio is not constant over time). Although this issue has been studied extensively and various alternatives to the hazard ratio estimator have been discussed in the statistical literature, such crucial information does not seem to have reached the broader community of health science researchers. In this article, we summarize several critical concerns regarding this conventional practice and discuss various well-known alternatives for quantifying the underlying differences between groups with respect to a time-to-event end point. The data from three recent cancer clinical trials, which reflect a variety of scenarios, are used throughout to illustrate our discussions. When there is not sufficient information about the profile of the between-group difference at the design stage of the study, we encourage practitioners to consider a prespecified, clinically meaningful, model-free measure for quantifying the difference and to use robust estimation procedures to draw primary inferences.

A unified inference procedure for a class of measures to assess improvement in risk prediction systems with survival data

Risk prediction procedures can be quite useful for the patients treatment selection, prevention strategy, or disease management in evidence-based medicine. Often, potentially important new predictors are available in addition to the conventional markers. The question is how to quantify the improvement from the new markers for prediction of the patients risk in order to aid cost-benefit decisions. The standard method, using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, to measure the added value may not be sensitive enough to capture incremental improvements from the new markers. Recently, some novel alternatives to area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, such as integrated discrimination improvement and net reclassification improvement, were proposed. In this paper, we consider a class of measures for evaluating the incremental values of new markers, which includes the preceding two as special cases. We present a unified procedure for making inferences about measures in the class with censored event time data. The large sample properties of our procedures are theoretically justified. We illustrate the new proposal with data from a cancer study to evaluate a new gene score for prediction of the patients survival.

Zosuquidar, a novel modulator of P-glycoprotein, does not improve the outcome of older patients with newly diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia: a randomized, placebo-controlled trial of the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group 3999

Zosuquidar, which modulates P-glycoprotein (P-gp) with minimal delay of anthracycline clearance, may reverse P-gp-mediated resistance in acute myeloid leukemia without increased toxicity. A total of 449 adults older than 60 years with acute myeloid leukemia or high-risk myelodysplastic syndrome enrolled in a randomized placebo-controlled double-blind trial (Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group 3999). Overall survival was compared between patients receiving conventional-dose cytarabine and daunorubicin and either zosuquidar (550 mg; 212 patients) or placebo (221 patients). Median and 2-year overall survival values were 7.2 months and 20% on zosuquidar and 9.4 months and 23% on placebo, respectively (P = .281). Remission rate was 51.9% on zosuquidar and 48.9% on placebo. All cause mortality to day 42 was not different (zosuquidar 22.2% vs placebo 16.3%; P = .158). In vitro modulation of P-gp activity by zosuquidar and expression of P-gp, multidrug resistance-related protein 1, lung resistance protein, and breast cancer resistance protein, were comparable in the 2 arms. Poor-risk cytogenetics were more common in P-gp(+) patients. P-gp expression and cytogenetics were correlated, though independent prognostic factors. We conclude that zosuquidar did not improve outcome in older acute myeloid leukemia, in part, because of the presence P-gp independent mechanisms of resistance. This trial is registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT00046930.

Evaluating Prediction Rules for t-Year Survivors With Censored Regression Models

Suppose that we are interested in establishing simple but reliable rules for predicting future t-year survivors through censored regression models. In this article we present inference procedures for evaluating such binary classification rules based on various prediction precision measures quantified by the overall misclassification rate, sensitivity and specificity, and positive and negative predictive values. Specifically, under various working models, we derive consistent estimators for the above measures through substitution and cross-validation estimation procedures. Furthermore, we provide large-sample approximations to the distributions of these nonsmooth estimators without assuming that the working model is correctly specified. Confidence intervals, for example, for the difference of the precision measures between two competing rules can then be constructed. All of the proposals are illustrated with real examples, and their finite-sample properties are evaluated through a simulation study.

Tumor aneuploidy correlates with markers of immune evasion and with reduced response to immunotherapy

Chromosomal chaos and tumor immunity Cancer immunotherapy produces durable clinical responses in only a subset of patients. Identification of tumor characteristics that correlate with responses could lead to predictive biomarkers and shed light on causal mechanisms. Davoli et al. found that human tumors with extensive aneuploidy—i.e., that display a highly abnormal number of chromosomes and chromosomal segments—express fewer markers of the immune cells responsible for tumor destruction. In a retrospective analysis of clinical trial data, they found that melanoma patients with highly aneuploid tumors were less likely to benefit from immune checkpoint blockade therapy than patients whose tumors had a more normal karyotype. Thus, aneuploidy appears to enhance the ability of tumors to evade the immune system. Science, this issue p. 10.1126/science.aaf8399 Human tumors that display extensive chromosomal aberrations appear to be more resistant to immune attack. INTRODUCTION Aneuploidy, also known as somatic copy number alterations (SCNAs), is widespread in human cancers and has been proposed to drive tumorigenesis. The relationship between SCNAs and the characteristic functional features or “hallmarks” of cancer is not well understood. Among these cancer hallmarks is immune evasion, which is accomplished by neoantigen editing, defects in antigen presentation and inhibition of tumor infiltration, and/or cytotoxic activities of immune cells. Whether and how tumor SCNA levels influence immune evasion is of particular interest as this information could potentially be used to improve the efficacy of immune checkpoint blockade, a therapy that has produced durable responses in a subset of cancer patients. RATIONALE Understanding how SCNAs and mutation load affect tumor evolution, and through what mechanisms, is a key objective in cancer research. To explore the relationships between SCNA levels, tumor mutations, and cancer hallmarks, we examined data from 5255 tumor/normal samples representing 12 cancer types from The Cancer Genome Atlas project. We assigned each tumor an SCNA score and looked for correlations with the number and types of tumor mutations. We also compared the gene expression profiles of tumors with high versus low SCNA levels to identify differences in cellular signaling pathways. RESULTS First, we found that, for most tumors, there was a positive correlation between SCNA levels and the total number of mutations. Second, tumors harboring activating oncogenic mutations in the receptor tyrosine kinase–RAS–phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase pathway showed fewer SCNAs, a finding at odds with the hypothesis of oncogene-driven genomic instability. Third, we found that tumors with high levels of SCNAs showed elevated expression of cell cycle and cell proliferation markers (cell cycle signature) and reduced expression of markers for cytotoxic immune cell infiltrates (immune signature). The increased expression level of the cell cycle signature was primarily predicted by focal SCNAs, with a lesser contribution of arm and whole-chromosome SCNAs. In contrast, the lower expression level of the immune signature was primarily predicted by high levels of arm and whole-chromosome SCNAs. SCNA levels were a stronger predictor of markers of cytotoxic immune cell infiltration than tumor mutational load. Finally, through analysis of data from two published clinical trials of immunotherapy in melanoma patients, we found that high SCNA levels in tumors correlated with poorer survival of patients. The combination of the tumor SCNA score and the tumor mutational load was a better predictor of survival after immunotherapy than either biomarker alone. CONCLUSION We found that two hallmarks of cancer, cell proliferation and immune evasion, are predicted by distinct types of aneuploidy that likely act through distinct mechanisms. Proliferation markers mainly correlated with focal SCNAs, implying a mechanism related to the action of specific genes targeted by these SCNAs. Immune evasion markers mainly correlated with arm- and chromosome-level SCNAs, consistent with a mechanism related to general gene dosage imbalance rather than the action of specific genes. A retrospective analysis of melanoma patients treated with immune checkpoint blockade anti–CTLA-4 (cytotoxic T lymphocyte–associated protein 4) therapy revealed that high SCNA levels were associated with a poorer response, suggesting that tumor aneuploidy might be a useful biomarker for predicting which patients are most likely to benefit from this therapy. Genetic events associated with two cancer hallmarks: cell proliferation and immune evasion. Across several human tumor types, high SCNA levels correlate with increased expression of cell cycle markers and decreased expression of markers of cytotoxic immune cell infiltrates. A high load of tumor neoantigens (reflecting a high level of point mutations) promotes the detection of tumors by the immune system, limiting immune evasion. The relative contribution of focal, arm/chromosome, and neoantigen load to the prediction of proliferation and immune evasion is shown. Immunotherapies based on immune checkpoint blockade are highly effective in a subset of patients. An ongoing challenge is the identification of biomarkers that predict which patients will benefit from these therapies. Aneuploidy, also known as somatic copy number alterations (SCNAs), is widespread in cancer and is posited to drive tumorigenesis. Analyzing 12 human cancer types, we find that, for most, highly aneuploid tumors show reduced expression of markers of cytotoxic infiltrating immune cells, especially CD8+ T cells, and increased expression of cell proliferation markers. Different types of SCNAs predict the proliferation and immune signatures, implying distinct underlying mechanisms. Using published data from two clinical trials of immune checkpoint blockade therapy for metastatic melanoma, we found that tumor aneuploidy inversely correlates with patient survival. Together with other tumor characteristics such as tumor mutational load, aneuploidy may thus help identify patients most likely to respond to immunotherapy.

Monocyte activation markers in cerebrospinal fluid associated with impaired neurocognitive testing in advanced HIV infection.

Background:Activated monocytes/macrophages play a role in severe forms of HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders (HAND), but little is known about the mechanisms driving milder forms that are prevalent despite combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). To examine relationships of monocyte activation markers to HAND of varying severity, we compared plasma and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarker levels with neurocognitive test scores in HIV+ subjects. Methods:Plasma and CSF soluble CD14 (sCD14), CCL2, and interleukin (IL) 6 were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in 67 HIV+ subjects with nadir CD4 <300, and CSF inflammatory biomarkers were measured by multiplex assay in 14 subjects on suppressive cART. Results:Eighty-two percent were on cART, with 31% having undetectable plasma viral load (VL). CSF sCD14 was increased in subjects with impaired neurocognitive testing (P = 0.02), correlated inversely with global T scores in subjects with detectable but not undetectable plasma VL (P = 0.02), and yielded higher area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values for predicting impaired T scores (0.659) than plasma or CSF VL and current or nadir CD4 counts in single-marker and multivariate models. CSF sCD14, IL-6, IL-8, CCL2, CCL3, CXCL10, and interferon (IFN) gamma were increased in subjects on suppressive cART regardless of cognitive status and predicted patient class in unsupervised analyses, with IL-8, CCL2, and IFN&ggr; explaining most of the variance. Conclusions:CSF sCD14 is associated with impaired neurocognitive testing in patients with HIV on nonsuppressive cART, suggesting potential utility as a biomarker to monitor HAND progression. CSF sCD14, IL-6, IL-8, CCL2, CCL3, CXCL10, and IFN&ggr; remain elevated in patients on suppressive cART regardless of cognitive status, implying ongoing intrathecal inflammation even in the absence of clinical manifestations.