Hal T. Nelson

California's Climate Change Policy The Case of a Subnational State Actor Tackling a Global Challenge

For all its economic capacity, population size, and resource base, California remains only one among the 50 United States and, essentially, is a subnational actor attempting to play a role in the climate change policy arena on par with the nation-states of the world. This raises a series of questions about the substance and breadth of the states new policy and what has motivated it. The states policy declarations and initial flurry of activities are impressive. As with all so broad and sweeping initiatives, it remains to be seen the extent to which policy goals can and will be translated into operational rules and regulations, incentives and sanctions, and actual accomplishments across all the sectors of the states economy over the course of not just months and years but the decades to come.

Intergovernmental climate change mitigation policies: theory and outcomes

This paper develops a framework for analysing intergovernmental relationships around greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policies along a cooperation-conflict spectrum that affects the probability of their enactment. Cooperative policies, such as federal fiscal transfers to sub-national governments, facilitate enactment. Coordination policies, including enabling and funding mechanisms, promote interdependence between jurisdictions. Competitive policies, such as federal performance standards and price mechanisms, increase political conflict over authority. We categorise 23 policies developed by over 1,500 state stakeholders into the cooperation/coordination/conflict taxonomy. If scaled to the national level, these policies could reduce GHG emissions by over 3 billion tonnes by 2020 and generate nearly 2.2 million jobs (1.19 per cent above baseline projections). Nearly two-thirds of the job gains are from coordinated and cooperative policy options that are unlikely to occur under the status quo policy process. We recommend a national climate action planning process to reduce GHG emissions while increasing aggregate economic efficiency.

Planning implications from the interactions between renewable energy programs and carbon regulation

Complex relationships exist between programs to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) from the electricity sector and programs to promote renewable electricity generation. Simulation modeling of three scenarios in the UK electricity sector are used to identify potential interactions between these programs. A strict CO2 cap can result in a renewable electricity requirement being easily met. Conversely, the renewables quota could be required under low natural gas prices to keep electricity suppliers from switching from coal to gas. Similarly, CO2 trading can reduce renewables deployment levels because purchased CO2 allowances replace renewables. Therefore, both programs are required to ensure CO2 and renewables goals. The planning implications for administrative procedures and renewables subsidies are also discussed.

A Governing Framework for Climate Change Adaptation in the Built Environment

Developing an approach to governing adaptation to climate change is severely hampered by the dictatorship of the present when the needs of future generations are inadequately represented in current policy making. We posit this problem as a function of the attributes of adaptation policy making, including deep uncertainty and nonstationarity, where past observations are not reliable predictors of future outcomes. Our research links organizational decision-making attributes with adaptation decision making and identifies cases in which adaptation actions cause spillovers, free riding, and distributional impacts. We develop a governing framework for adaptation that we believe will enable policy, planning, and major long-term development decisions to be made appropriately at all levels of government in the face of the deep uncertainty and nonstationarity caused by climate change. Our framework requires that approval of projects with an expected life span of 30 years or more in the built environment include minimum building standards that integrate forecasted climate change impacts from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) intermediate scenario. The intermediate IPCC scenario must be downscaled to include local or regional temperature, water availability, sea level rise, susceptibility to forest fires, and human habitation impacts to minimize climate-change risks to the built environment. The minimum standard is systematically updated every six years to facilitate learning by formal and informal organizations. As a minimum standard, the governance framework allows jurisdictions to take stronger actions to increase their climate resilience and thus maintain system flexibility.

The Paradox of “Acting Globally While Thinking Locally” Discordance in Climate Change Adaption Policy

The paradox motivating this article is why California has acted globally by enacting a comprehensive mitigation policy to reduce the emissions of Greenhouse gases, a true public good since the benefits will be shared across the planet, but has not mustered the will to act locally through the adoption of an equally comprehensive adaptation policy for the state to protect its own public and private assets and interests. We attempt to explain the paradox by identifying what it is that differentiates climate change adaptation from mitigation, both substantively and politically. The paradox notwithstanding, we identify several imaginable adaptation policies and strategies that would be commensurate with individual and collective self-interested behavior.

Towards comprehensive malaria planning: The effect of government capacity, health policy, and land use variables on malaria incidence in India

We present what we believe is the first empirical research that accounts for subnational government capacity in estimating malaria incidence. After controlling for relevant extrinsic factors, we find evidence of a negative effect of state government capacity on reported malaria cases in Indian states over the period 1993-2002. Government capacity is more successful in predicting malaria incidence than potentially more direct indicators such as state public health expenditures and economic development levels. We find that high government capacity can moderate the deleterious health effects of malaria in rice producing regions. Our research also suggests that government capacity may have exacerbated the effectiveness of the World Bank Malaria Control Project in India over the period studied. We conclude by proposing the integration of government capacity measures into existing planning efforts, including vulnerability mapping tools and disease surveillance efforts.

The Great Recession or progressive energy policies? Explaining the decline in US greenhouse gas emissions forecasts

This paper evaluates the causes of the 23% decline in 2030 US greenhouse gas emissions forecasts between 2007 and 2011. Dynamic regression modeling predicts that the Great Recession contributed to about 67% of the 2008–2009 emissions decline, but then fell to about an 18% share for the 2030 emissions forecast. An analysis of electricity generation forecasts show that switching from coal to gas contributed only 6% to the total 2030 decline. In contrast, regulatory impact assessments and policy analysis showed that state and federal policies were responsible for 46% of the 2030 decline in emissions.

Close and Connected: The Effects of Proximity and Social Ties on Citizen Opposition to Electricity Transmission Lines

To meet reliability and renewable energy goals, new high-voltage transmission line (HVTL) projects are being built in the United States and worldwide. The siting of HVTLs, often considered a locally unwanted land use (LULU), can be difficult due to the negative externalities they create. Based on a survey of 358 residents of Chino Hills, California, we find that respondents’ main concerns in regard to an HVTL project were health risks and harm to property values. Regression modeling finds that citizens who live close to the project, and are more connected to each other, are more likely to oppose the project. Psychosocial perceptions of project risks are also an important predictor of opposition. A high level of perceived risk moderates the effects of distance on opposition attitudes and behaviors. Trust in the project sponsor is a significant independent predictor of opposition, and moderates the relationship between distance and opposition.

A load-based CO2 cap in the power sector

Oregons governor has proposed a load-based cap and trade programme that limits carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to 10% below 1990 levels by 2020. A load-based programme is different from the source-based European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), as it regulates emissions sources, located outside the state, that serve Oregons electricity load. This article describes the stakeholder process that developed the legislative proposal for the load-based cap. The Oregon Clean Energy Planning Model©, a modified capacity expansion model of annual load resource balances, is used to estimate programme costs. The net present value of the climate policy to Oregon ranges from a

What drives opposition to high-voltage transmission lines?

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