Hal Turton

Determinants of emissions growth in OECD countries

Abstract This paper analyses the sources of growth in energy-related greenhouse gas emissions for OECD countries over the period 1982–1997. It employs a decomposition formula that separates out the effects of changes in population, economic growth, energy intensity of output (in aggregate and by sector), primary energy use in final energy consumption, the share of fossil fuels and the carbon intensity of fossil fuel combustion. It is shown that, in general, growth in emissions depends on how effectively energy use can be changed to offset the effects of economic growth. Across the OECD as a whole, growth in emissions has been mainly due to economic growth (both GDP per capita and population growth), as well as an increase in primary energy required for final energy consumption, offset by falling energy intensities and a declining share of fossil fuels. Overall, the large fall in the energy intensity of OECD economies over 1982–1997 has been driven primarily by falling energy intensities in the services and industry sectors of the USA and the services sector of the European Union, but these have been offset somewhat by rising energy intensity of services in Japan. The influence of falling energy intensities and the declining share of fossil fuels weakened in the five-year period 1992–1997 resulting in faster emissions growth. There were sharp difference between countries, with population growth and worsening fuel mix playing a much stronger role in the USA compared to the EU and Japan, but with the US making much larger reductions in energy use per unit of GDP. The analysis suggests that opportunities to reduce emissions are more limited in Germany, the UK and Japan, with more opportunities in the USA, Canada, the Netherlands and Australia.

Swiss Climate Change and Nuclear Policy: A Comparative Analysis Using an Energy System Approach and a Sectoral Electricity Model

SummaryDecisions on climate change and nuclear policies are likely to have major influences on the future evolution of the Swiss energy system. To understand the implications of selected future policy decisions, we analyse the development of the Swiss energy system with a bottom-up technology-rich least-cost optimisation modelling framework. We use the Swiss MARKAL energy system model and analyse a stringent climate change mitigation policy with two policy variants on the availability of nuclear energy, i.e. with and without nuclear new builds. The energy system modelling approach provides insights into system-wide energy pathways, technology choice and cross-sectoral trade-offs like resource competition, electrification, and CO2 mitigation options across supply and demand sectors. To complement the full system approach, we apply an experimental TIMES model — a successor to MARKAL — of the Swiss electricity sector with a detailed representation of the electricity load curve accounting for diurnal and seasonal variations in demand and resource supply. The analytical results from both modelling approaches are presented and the electricity sector results compared to illustrate the complementary policy insights. The implications for realising an ambitious climate target with and without investment in new nuclear plants are discussed, and a number of areas for possible policy support identified.

Swiss Energy Strategies under Global Climate Change and Nuclear Policy Uncertainty

SummaryDomestic strategies for the Swiss energy system are likely to be affected by a range of uncertain global challenges, such as natural resource availability and depletion, international climate change policies, and global technology policies. We analyze technological choices for Switzerland under a stringent global climate policy with modest global energy resources; and the possible consequences of different global or regional policies in response to the recent nuclear accident in Fukushima, Japan. We use MERGE, an integrated assessment model, with a division of the world in 10 regions, including Switzerland and Japan. We find that nuclear energy, including light water reactors or more advanced technologies have the potential to play a major role in the future energy system. The consequences of a moratorium on the construction of new nuclear power plants include the need for additional electricity efficiency measures and the integration of a large share of intermittent renewables, raising additional challenges.

Sustainable Automobile Transport

Transport, and in particular road transport, represents a significant global threat to long-term sustainable development, and is one of the fastest-growing consumers of final energy and sources of greenhouse gas emissions. In this book, long-term energy–economy–environment scenarios are used to identify the key technological developments required to address the challenges passenger car transport poses to climate change mitigation and energy security. It also considers possible targets for policy support and examines some of the elements that contribute to the significant levels of uncertainty – particularly social and political conditions. The book then builds on this long-term scenario analysis with a broad review of recent empirical examples of relevant policy implementation to identify near-term options for the passenger transportation sector which may promote a shift towards a more sustainable transport system over the longer term.

Impact assessment of energy-related policy instruments on climate change and security of energy supply

Impact assessment of policy instruments is an important element of the policy development process. It represents a systematic attempt to shed light on the possible effects of policy proposals. This paper assesses the impact of two representative policy instruments, namely energy-related Demonstration and Deployment (D&D) programmes and a carbon-equivalent (C-eq) tax, on sustainability indicators in the areas of climate change and security of energy supply, two important dimensions of sustainable development. Specifically, we pay attention to the effectiveness of these policy instruments in stimulating technological change that could lead to a more secure and climate-benign global energy system in the long-term future. Although the numerical results presented here are specific to our particular analysis and highly dependent on the characteristics and limitations of our modelling tools, we offer this analysis as a contribution towards the development of more comprehensive methodologies for the assessment of impacts of policy instruments in the context of the quest towards a sustainable global energy system.

Methodological Significance of Temporal Granularity in Energy-Economic Models—Insights from the MARKAL/TIMES Framework

One of the key attributes that distinguishes bottom-up energy modelling frameworks is the temporal depiction. In any given bottom-up model, the depiction across two dimensions—viz. model time horizon and intra-annual time resolution—has an implicit meaning for the framework and research questions to be answered. There are also tradeoffs between these two temporal dimensions in model design driven by computational resources, solver algorithm capabilities, data availability and methodological limitations. In the TIMES framework, the option to apply a higher intra-annual time resolution offers the potential to generate additional powerful insights into the electricity sector where fluctuations in supply and demand are significant, even though this feature alone is still less suitable for analyzing fully the dynamics of the sector. Nonetheless, the TIMES integrated system approaches offer additional capabilities which are not available in single-sector modeling approaches. This chapter provides a broad overview of temporal features in the MARKAL/TIMES energy modelling framework. The significance in terms of higher time resolution, along with trade-offs and benefits of an integrated system approach are discussed with a set of scenarios from the Swiss TIMES electricity and energy system models.

Transition to Hydrogen: Long-term scenarios of the global energy and transport system

Introduction The earlier chapters considered a number of important factors for the transition to alternative fuels and vehicles, including issues of market introduction, environmental and resource impacts, possible vehicle configurations, and comparative pollutant emissions. These are highly relevant and practical considerations for assessing the options and processes to facilitate a shift to alternative fuels. In this chapter, we expand on these earlier chapters to consider a possible transition to alternative fuels and transportation technologies in a broader, global, and longer term context. Specifically, we consider energy system interactions and technological change, major driving forces of global economic and demographic change, resource availability, and climate change policy. This complements and extends the approach in Chapter 5 which analysed factors driving deployment of new vehicle technologies from consumer and regulatory perspectives. Let us briefly introduce each of the important global and long-term issues mentioned above, considering first energy system interactions. To assess the suitability of different technological options for the transport sector over the longer term, it is also necessary to consider technological options in the energy sector (for supplying fuels to transportation), and trends in other end-use sectors (which compete for the same energy carriers used by transportation). In the energy sector, the pace of technological change, bottlenecks to the deployment of new technologies (such as a hydrogen refuelling network), and technological lock-ins (for example, the current integrated system of oil production, distribution, and refining) are further factors likely to influence the suitability of potential alternative fuels and technologies in transportation.