Hallie Eakin

Nested and teleconnected vulnerabilities to environmental change

The vulnerability of distant peoples and places to global change in environment and society is nested and teleconnected. Here, we argue that such vulnerabilities are linked through environmental change process feedbacks, economic market linkages, and flows of resources, people, and information. We illustrate these linkages through the examples of the global transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and the interdependent vulnerabilities and adaptations of coffee farmers in Vietnam and Mexico. These cases demonstrate that the vulnerability of specific individuals and communities is not geographically bounded but, rather, is connected at different scales, so that the drivers of their exposure and sensitivity are inseparable from large‐scale processes of sociocultural change and market integration. Aggregate outcomes of government policies, trends in global commodity markets, and even decisions by individuals to improve livelihood security can have negative repercussions, not only locally, through transformations of ecological systems and social relations, but also at larger scales.

Smallholder Maize Production and Climatic Risk: A Case Study from Mexico

The article explores the strategies employed by smallholder farmers in Mexico to cope with the affects of climatic variability, and how seasonal climate forecasts may assist these farmers in mitigating climatic risk. Recognizing that the decisions of smallholder farmers are intricately tied to the political-economic circumstances in which they operate, the article discusses how agricultural policy in Mexico affects the vulnerability of small-scale producers and may inhibit their ability to use climatic forecasts to their advantage. The article first reviews the literature on smallholder adaptation in Mexico, and discusses briefly policy and institutional issues affecting adaptation at the farm-level. Using the case of small-scale maize producers in Tlaxcala, Mexico, as an illustration, the article then argues that political-economic uncertainty outweighs climatic variability as a determinant of the production strategies of small-scale producers. In these circumstances, the farmers are unlikely to use new seasonal climate forecasts.

Adapting to Climate Change: Hidden costs and disparate uncertainties: trade-offs in approaches to climate policy

As policy-makers struggle to define the policy agenda to address the challenge of climate change, three distinct influential approaches to climate policy are emerging in the climate change literature: implementing climate change adaptation; reducing social vulnerability; and managing ecosystem resilience. Each of these approaches has been developed in specific policy contexts associated respectively with natural hazard mitigation, poverty and social welfare investment, and natural resource management. In these contexts each approach has met with varying levels of past success. The fact that climate change is characterized by a high probability of surprise events; significant scientific uncertainty; and a need for long-term planning horizons only makes policy development more difficult. In this chapter we argue that each of the three approaches involves implicit trade-offs in both the process of policy formation and in policy outcomes. These trade-offs are rarely considered in the evaluation of policy options, yet may have important implications for social welfare and sustainability. Through the analysis of case studies of adaptation to climate variability and change, we illustrate how the different ways of approaching the process of adjusting to future change can inadvertently lead to, for example, the privileging of efficiency over equitable distribution of resources (for example, risk-based adaptation approach), equity at the expense of cost (for example, social vulnerability approach), or intergenerational equity over political legitimacy (resilience approach).

Building Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change in Less Developed Countries

This paper focuses on the relevance of adaptive capacity in the context of the increasing certainty that climate change impacts will affect human populations and different social groups substantially and differentially. Developing and building adaptive capacity requires a combination of interventions that address not only climate-related risks (specific capacities) but also the structural deficits (lack of income, education, health, political power, etc.—generic capacities) that shape vulnerability. We argue that bolstering both generic and specific adaptive capacities, with careful attention to minimizing the potential tensions between these two types of capacities, can help vulnerable groups maintain their ability to address risks in the long run at the same time as they respond effectively to short term climate impacts. We examine the relationship between generic and specific capacities, taking into consideration that they are not always positively related. We then propose a conceptual model describing positive and negative feedbacks between the two.

Public Sector Reform and Governance for Adaptation: Implications of New Public Management for Adaptive Capacity in Mexico and Norway

Although many governments are assuming the responsibility of initiating adaptation policy in relation to climate change, the compatibility of “governance-for-adaptation” with the current paradigms of public administration has generally been overlooked. Over the last several decades, countries around the globe have embraced variants of the philosophy of administration broadly called “New Public Management” (NPM) in an effort to improve administrative efficiencies and the provision of public services. Using evidence from a case study of reforms in the building sector in Norway, and a case study of water and flood risk management in central Mexico, we analyze the implications of the adoption of the tenets of NPM for adaptive capacity. Our cases illustrate that some of the key attributes associated with governance for adaptation—namely, technical and financial capacities; institutional memory, learning and knowledge; and participation and accountability—have been eroded by NPM reforms. Despite improvements in specific operational tasks of the public sector in each case, we show that the success of NPM reforms presumes the existence of core elements of governance that have often been found lacking, including solid institutional frameworks and accountability. Our analysis illustrates the importance of considering both longer-term adaptive capacities and short-term efficiency goals in public sector administration reform.

The Social Vulnerability of Irrigated Vegetable Farming Households in Central Puebla

Irrigation development has been frequently mentioned in the climate change literature as a possible means for vulnerable agricultural populations to adapt to climatic variability and climatic change. In facilitating year-round intensive production, irrigation can also enable farmers access to competitive commercial markets. In Mexico, the production of irrigated vegetables has expanded over the past decades as a response to both new commercial opportunities and the climatic limitations of rainfed production. The case study presented here illustrates that for some smallholders, irrigated vegetable production does not, in itself, necessarily address farmers’ sensitivity to climatic hazards. Furthermore, the interaction of market uncertainty and price volatility with climatic risk in some cases may actually exacerbate the vulnerability of these households.

Livelihoods and landscapes at the threshold of change: disaster and resilience in a Chiapas coffee community

In 2005, torrential rains associated with Hurricane Stan devastated farm systems in southern Mexico. We present a case study on the impacts of and responses to Hurricane Stan by coffee households in three communities in the highlands of Chiapas, Mexico, with the objective of illuminating the linkages between household vulnerability and resilience. We analyze data from 64 household surveys in a cluster analysis to link household impacts experienced to post-Stan adaptive responses and relate these results with landscape-level land-cover changes. The degree of livelihood change was most significant for land-constrained households whose specialization in coffee led to high exposure and sensitivity to Stan and little adaptive capacity. Across the sample, the role of coffee in livelihood strategies declined, as households sought land to secure subsistence needs and diversified economically after Stan. Nevertheless, livelihoods and landscape outcomes were not closely coupled, at least at the temporal and spatial scale of our analysis: We found no evidence of land-use change associated with farmers’ coping strategies. While households held strong attitudes regarding effective resource management for risk reduction, this knowledge does not necessarily translate into capacities to manage resilience at broader scales. We argue that policy interventions are needed to help materialize local strategies and knowledge on risk management, not only to allow individual survival but also to enhance resilience at local, community and landscape scales.

Local perspectives on adaptation to climate change: Lessons from Mexico and Argentina

Foreword by R. K. Pachauri * A Stitch in Time: General Lessons from Specific Cases * Adapting Conservation Strategies to Climate Change in Southern Africa * Benefits and Costs of Adapting Water Planning and Management to Climate Change and Water Demand Growth in the Western Cape of South Africa * Indigenous Knowledge, Institutions and Practices for Coping with Variable Climate in the Limpopo Basin of Botswana * Community Development and Coping with Drought in Rural Sudan * Climate, Malaria and Cholera in the Lake Victoria Region: Adapting to Changing Risks * Making Economic Sense of Adaptation in Upland Cereal Production Systems in The Gambia * Past, Present and Future Adaptation by Rural Households of Northern Nigeria * Using Seasonal Weather Forecasts for Adapting Food Production to Climate Variability and Climate Change in Nigeria * Adapting Dryland and Irrigated Cereal Farming to Climate Change in Tunisia and Egypt * Adapting to Drought, Zud and Climate Change in Mongolia s Rangelands * Evaluation of Adaptation Options for the Heihe River Basin of China * Strategies for Managing Climate Risks in the Lower Mekong River Basin: A Place-based Approach * Spillovers and Trade-offs of Adaptation in the Pantabangan-Carranglan Watershed of the Philippines * Top-down, Bottom-up: Mainstreaming Adaptation in Pacific Island Townships * Adapting to Dengue Risk in the Caribbean * Adaptation to Climate Trends: Lessons from the Argentine Experience * Local Perspectives on Adaptation to Climate Change: Lessons from Mexico and Argentina * Maize and Soybean Cultivation in Southeastern South America: Adapting to Climate Change * Fishing Strategies for Managing Climate Variability and Change in the Estuarine Front of the R o de la Plata * Index

SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECASTING AND THE RELEVANCE OF LOCAL KNOWLEDGE

Seasonal climatic forecasting is one of the more promising experimental technologies now being developed to help mitigate the risks posed by climatic hazards for agricultural production in developing nations. However, numerous studies of traditional agricultural communities have shown that farmers already often manage climatic risk through traditional methods of climate prediction and ritual. This local knowledge may or may not accurately predict climatic events, but it characterizes the demand for climate information and indicates how new climate forecasts might be received. Based on ethnographic data, this paper describes traditional climate prediction methods of farmers in Tlaxcala, Mexico to illustrate the relevance of local climate knowledge for seasonal forecasting. [Key words: climate forecasting, agriculture, local knowledge, Mexico.]

Opinion: Urban resilience efforts must consider social and political forces

Environmental disasters, ranging from catastrophic floods to extreme temperatures, have caused more than 30,000 deaths per year and more than US