Hancheng Dai

Economic Impacts from PM2.5 Pollution-Related Health Effects in China: A Provincial-Level Analysis

This study evaluates the PM2.5 pollution-related health impacts on the national and provincial economy of China using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and the latest nonlinear exposure-response functions. Results show that the health and economic impacts may be substantial in provinces with a high PM2.5 concentration. In the WoPol scenario without PM2.5 pollution control policy, we estimate that China experiences a 2.00% GDP loss and 25.2 billion USD in health expenditure from PM2.5 pollution in 2030. In contrast, with control policy in the WPol scenario, a control investment of 101.8 billion USD (0.79% of GDP) and a gain of 1.17% of Chinas GDP from improving PM2.5 pollution are projected. At the provincial level, GDP loss in 2030 in the WoPol scenario is high in Tianjin (3.08%), Shanghai (2.98%), Henan (2.32%), Beijing (2.75%), and Hebei (2.60%) and the top five provinces with the highest additional health expenditure are Henan, Sichuan, Shandong, Hebei, and Jiangsu. Controlling PM2.5 pollution could bring positive benefits in two-thirds of provinces. Tianjin, Shanghai, Beijing, Henan, Jiangsu, and Hebei experience most benefits from PM2.5 pollution control as a result of a higher PM2.5 pollution and dense population distribution. Conversely, the control investment is higher than GDP gain in some underdeveloped provinces, such as Ningxia, Guizhou, Shanxi, Gansu, and Yunnan.

Economic Impacts from PM2.5 Pollution-Related Health Effects: A Case Study in Shanghai

PM2.5 pollution-related diseases cause additional medical expenses and work time loss, leading to macroeconomic impact in high PM2.5 concentration areas. Previous economic impact assessments of air pollution focused on benefits from environmental regulations while ignoring climate policies. In this study, we examine the health and economic impacts from PM2.5 pollution under various air pollution control strategies and climate policies scenarios in the megacity of Shanghai. The estimation adopts an integrated model combining a Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model, exposure-response functions (ERFs), and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results show that without control measures, Shanghais mortality caused by PM2.5 pollution are estimated to be 192 400 cases in 2030 and the work time loss to be 72.1 h/cap annually. The corresponding GDP values and welfare losses would be approximately 2.26% and 3.14%, respectively. With an estimated control cost of 0.76% of local GDP, Shanghai would gain approximately 1.01% of local GDP through local air pollution control measures and climate policies. Furthermore, the application of multiregional integrated control strategies in neighboring provinces would be the most effective in reducing PM2.5 concentration in Shanghai, leading to only 0.34% of GDP loss. At the sectoral level, labor-intensive sectors suffer more output loss from PM2.5 pollution. Sectors with the highest control costs include power generation, iron and steel, and transport. The results indicate that the combination of multiregional integrated air pollution control strategies and climate policies would be cost-beneficial for Shanghai.

Will international emissions trading help achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreement

Under the Paris Agreement, parties set and implement their own emissions targets as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to tackle climate change. International carbon emissions trading is expected to reduce global mitigation costs. Here, we show the benefit of emissions trading under both NDCs and a more ambitious reduction scenario consistent with the 2 °C goal. The results show that the global welfare loss, which was measured based on estimated household consumption change in 2030, decreased by 75% (from 0.47% to 0.16%), as a consequence of achieving NDCs through emissions trading. Furthermore, achieving the 2 °C targets without emissions trading led to a global welfare loss of 1.4%–3.4%, depending on the burden-sharing scheme used, whereas emissions trading reduced the loss to around 1.5% (from 1.4% to 1.7%). These results indicate that emissions trading is a valuable option for the international system, enabling NDCs and more ambitious targets to be achieved in a cost-effective manner.

An impact assessment of sustainable technologies for the Chinese urban residential sector at provincial level

Recently, energy use in the urban residential sector of China has drastically increased due to higher incomes and urbanization. The fossil fuels dominant energy supply has since worsened the air quality, especially in urban areas. In this study we estimate the future energy service demands in Chinese urban residential areas, and then use an AIM/Enduse model to evaluate the emission reduction potential of CO2, SO2, NOx and PM. Considering the climate diversity and its impact on household energy service demands, our analysis is down-scaled to the provincial-level. The results show that in most of the regions, penetration of efficient technologies will bring CO2 emission reductions of over 20% compared to the baseline by the year 2030. Deployment of energy efficient technologies also co-benefits GHG emission reduction. However, efficient technology selection appears to differ across provinces due to climatic variation and economic disparity. For instance, geothermal heating technology is effective for the cold Northern areas while biomass technology contributes to emission reduction the most in the warm Southern areas.

Economic impacts from PM2.5 pollution-related health effects in China's road transport sector: A provincial-level analysis

Economic impact assessments of air pollution-related health effects from a sectoral perspective in China is still deficient. This study evaluates the PM2.5 pollution-related health impacts of the road transport sector on Chinas economy at both national and provincial levels in 2030 under various air mitigation technologies scenarios. Health impacts are estimated using an integrated approach that combines the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model, a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and a health model. Results show that at a national level, the road transport sector leads to 163.64 thousand deaths per year, increases the per capita risk of morbidity by 0.37% and accounts for 1.43 billion Yuan in health care expenditures. We estimate 442.90 billion Yuan of the value of statistical life loss and 2.09 h/capita of work time loss in 2015. Without additional control measures, air pollution related to the transport sector will cause 177.50 thousand deaths in 2030, a 0.40% per capita increase in the risk of morbidity, accounting for 4.12 billion Yuan in health care expenditures, 737.15 billion Yuan of statistical life loss and 2.23 h/capita of work time loss. Based on our model, implementing the most strict control strategy scenario would decrease mortality by 42.14%, morbidity risk by 42.14%, health care expenditures by 41.94%, statistical life loss by 26.22% and hours of work time loss by 42.65%, comparing with the no control measure scenario. In addition, PM2.5 pollution from the road transport sector will cause 0.68% GDP loss in 2030. At a provincial level, GDP losses in 14 out of 30 provinces far exceed the national rate. Henan (1.20%), Sichuan (1.07%), Chongqing (0.99%), Hubei (0.94%), and Shandong (0.90%) would experience the highest GDP loss in 2030. Implementing control strategies to reduce PM2.5 pollution in the road transport sector could bring positive benefits in half of the Chinese provinces especially in provinces that suffer greater health impacts from the road transport sector (such as Henan and Sichuan).

India INDC assessment: Emission gap between pledged target and 2 °C target

India has pledged to reduce the carbon intensity of GDP by 33–35% in the year 2030 compared to 2005 level in its Intended Nationally-Determined Contributions (INDC). The goal of limiting the global average temperature rise well below 2 °C was reaffirmed in the Paris Agreement adopted under UNFCCC. This chapter assesses three scenarios for India spanning till 2030. First, the reference scenario assumes continuation of the ongoing policies along the conventional path. Second, INDC scenario assumes the successful implementation of INDC decarbonization target. Two-degree (2 °C) scenario assumes an emission constraint aligned with the global of 2 °C stabilization target. The modelling assessment is carried out using a top-down computable general equilibrium AIM/CGE (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium) model. The results show that even after full implementation of the INDCs, the emissions would still be 25 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent higher than 2 °C stabilization target over the period 2016–2030. Enhanced actions like penetration of renewable technologies, end-use demand management and improvement in energy efficiency could help to close this emission gap.

Co-benefits of climate mitigation on air quality and human health in Asian countries

Climate change mitigation involves reducing fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, which is expensive, particularly under stringent mitigation targets. The co-benefits of reducing air pollutants and improving human health are often ignored, but can play significant roles in decision-making. In this study, we quantified the co-benefits of climate change mitigation on ambient air quality and human health in both physical and monetary terms with a particular focus on Asia, where air quality will likely be degraded in the next few decades if mitigation measures are not undertaken. We used an integrated assessment framework that incorporated economic, air chemistry transport, and health assessment models. Air pollution reduction through climate change mitigation under the 2 °C goal could reduce premature deaths in Asia by 0.79 million (95% confidence interval: 0.75-1.8 million) by 2050. This co-benefit is equivalent to a life value savings of approximately 2.8 trillion United States dollars (USD) (6% of the gross domestic product [GDP]), which is decidedly more than the climate mitigation cost (840 billion USD, 2% of GDP). At the national level, India has the highest potential net benefit of 1.4 trillion USD, followed by China (330 billion USD) and Japan (68 billion USD). Furthermore, in most Asian countries, per capita GDP gain and life value savings would increase with per capita GDP increasing. We robustly confirmed this qualitative conclusion under several socioeconomic and exposure-response function assumptions.

The Effectiveness of the International Emissions Trading under the Paris Agreement

Under the Paris Agreement, parties would set and implement their own emissions targets as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to tackle climate change risk. The international carbon emissions trading (ET) is expected to reduce global mitigation costs. Here we show the benefit of ET under both NDCs. The results show that the global welfare loss, which was measured based on estimated household consumption change in 2030, decreased by 80% (from 0.5 to 0.1%), as a consequence of achieving the NDCs through ET. These results indicate that ET is a valuable option for the international system, enabling the NDCs to be cost-effectively achieved and more ambitious targets.

Achieving Carbon Emissions Peak in China by 2030: The Key Options and Economic Impacts

This study investigates the options and sectors that are essential for China to achieve carbon emissions peak by 2030. A dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to generate 14 scenarios from a scenario matrix incorporating three levels of carbon constraints and four options of low-carbon measures. Results suggest that if there is no policy intervention, China’s total CO2 emissions would reach 22.9 Gt in 2030. To cut carbon emissions required by the latest Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) or the global two-degree target, China should not only rely on optimizing industry structure or restricting its industry output, but more importantly, it should rely on low-carbon technologies in the power and end-use sectors as well as low-carbon style consumption. We also depict how the mitigation costs can be lowered through various low-carbon countermeasures, with which the carbon mitigation cost of achieving China’s INDC target in 2030 could be reduced from 155 USD/ton-CO2 to 35 USD/ton-CO2. The corresponding GDP loss could fall from 6.3% to merely 0.67%, and welfare will not be affected significantly.