Hannah K. Weir

Annual Report to the Nation on the Status of Cancer, 1975–2005, Featuring Trends in Lung Cancer, Tobacco Use, and Tobacco Control

Background The American Cancer Society, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the National Cancer Institute (NCI), and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries (NAACCR) collaborate annually to provide updated information on cancer occurrence and trends in the United States. This year’s report includes trends in lung cancer incidence and death rates, tobacco use, and tobacco control by state of residence. Methods Information on invasive cancers was obtained from the NCI, CDC, and NAACCR and information on mortality from the CDCs National Center for Health Statistics. Annual percentage changes in the age-standardized incidence and death rates (2000 US population standard) for all cancers combined and for the top 15 cancers were estimated by joinpoint analysis of long-term (1975–2005) trends and by least squares linear regression of short-term (1996–2005) trends. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results Both incidence and death rates from all cancers combined decreased statistically significantly (P < .05) in men and women overall and in most racial and ethnic populations. These decreases were driven largely by declines in both incidence and death rates for the three most common cancers in men (lung, colorectum, and prostate) and for two of the three leading cancers in women (breast and colorectum), combined with a leveling off of lung cancer death rates in women. Although the national trend in female lung cancer death rates has stabilized since 2003, after increasing for several decades, there is prominent state and regional variation. Lung cancer incidence and/or death rates among women increased in 18 states, 16 of them in the South or Midwest, where, on average, the prevalence of smoking was higher and the annual percentage decrease in current smoking among adult women was lower than in the West and Northeast. California was the only state with decreasing lung cancer incidence and death rates in women. Conclusions Although the decrease in overall cancer incidence and death rates is encouraging, large state and regional differences in lung cancer trends among women underscore the need to maintain and strengthen many state tobacco control programs.

Global surveillance of cancer survival 1995–2009: analysis of individual data for 25 676 887 patients from 279 population-based registries in 67 countries (CONCORD-2)

BACKGROUND Worldwide data for cancer survival are scarce. We aimed to initiate worldwide surveillance of cancer survival by central analysis of population-based registry data, as a metric of the effectiveness of health systems, and to inform global policy on cancer control. METHODS Individual tumour records were submitted by 279 population-based cancer registries in 67 countries for 25·7 million adults (age 15-99 years) and 75,000 children (age 0-14 years) diagnosed with cancer during 1995-2009 and followed up to Dec 31, 2009, or later. We looked at cancers of the stomach, colon, rectum, liver, lung, breast (women), cervix, ovary, and prostate in adults, and adult and childhood leukaemia. Standardised quality control procedures were applied; errors were corrected by the registry concerned. We estimated 5-year net survival, adjusted for background mortality in every country or region by age (single year), sex, and calendar year, and by race or ethnic origin in some countries. Estimates were age-standardised with the International Cancer Survival Standard weights. FINDINGS 5-year survival from colon, rectal, and breast cancers has increased steadily in most developed countries. For patients diagnosed during 2005-09, survival for colon and rectal cancer reached 60% or more in 22 countries around the world; for breast cancer, 5-year survival rose to 85% or higher in 17 countries worldwide. Liver and lung cancer remain lethal in all nations: for both cancers, 5-year survival is below 20% everywhere in Europe, in the range 15-19% in North America, and as low as 7-9% in Mongolia and Thailand. Striking rises in 5-year survival from prostate cancer have occurred in many countries: survival rose by 10-20% between 1995-99 and 2005-09 in 22 countries in South America, Asia, and Europe, but survival still varies widely around the world, from less than 60% in Bulgaria and Thailand to 95% or more in Brazil, Puerto Rico, and the USA. For cervical cancer, national estimates of 5-year survival range from less than 50% to more than 70%; regional variations are much wider, and improvements between 1995-99 and 2005-09 have generally been slight. For women diagnosed with ovarian cancer in 2005-09, 5-year survival was 40% or higher only in Ecuador, the USA, and 17 countries in Asia and Europe. 5-year survival for stomach cancer in 2005-09 was high (54-58%) in Japan and South Korea, compared with less than 40% in other countries. By contrast, 5-year survival from adult leukaemia in Japan and South Korea (18-23%) is lower than in most other countries. 5-year survival from childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia is less than 60% in several countries, but as high as 90% in Canada and four European countries, which suggests major deficiencies in the management of a largely curable disease. INTERPRETATION International comparison of survival trends reveals very wide differences that are likely to be attributable to differences in access to early diagnosis and optimum treatment. Continuous worldwide surveillance of cancer survival should become an indispensable source of information for cancer patients and researchers and a stimulus for politicians to improve health policy and health-care systems. FUNDING Canadian Partnership Against Cancer (Toronto, Canada), Cancer Focus Northern Ireland (Belfast, UK), Cancer Institute New South Wales (Sydney, Australia), Cancer Research UK (London, UK), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Atlanta, GA, USA), Swiss Re (London, UK), Swiss Cancer Research foundation (Bern, Switzerland), Swiss Cancer League (Bern, Switzerland), and University of Kentucky (Lexington, KY, USA).

Pre-natal and peri-natal exposures and risk of testicular germ-cell cancer

The present case‐control study was undertaken to investigate the association between exposure to maternal hormones and risk of testicular germ‐cell cancer by histologic subgroups. Cases were males, aged 16 to 59 years, diagnosed with testicular germ‐cell cancer in Ontario between 1987 and 1989. Histologic review was performed on all eligible cases for the purpose of categorizing cases as seminoma or non‐seminoma (the latter classified 2 ways, with and without tumors containing seminoma). Risk factor data were collected on 502 cases, 346 case mothers, 975 age‐matched controls, and 522 control mothers. Exogenous hormone exposure was associated with elevated risk (OR = 4.9, 95% CI 1.7–13.9). Several additional risk factors were associated with risk of testicular cancer: bleeding and threatened miscarriage (OR = 0.6, 95% CI 0.3–1.0), maternal cigarette smoking (12+ cigarettes/day OR = 0.6, 95% CI 0.4–1.0). pre‐term birth (OR = 1.6, 95% CI 1.0–2.5), and treatment for undescended testicle (OR = 8.0, 95% CI 3.2–20.0). First births were associated with elevated risk (OR = 1.7, 95% CI 1.0–2.8) among mothers below the age of 24 years at conception. There was little evidence that risk factors differed by histologic subgroup. We found evidence that exposure to maternal hormones, particularly estrogens, is associated with testicular germ‐cell cancer risk. Not only does exposure to elevated levels (exogenous hormone use, pre‐term birth, and first births among young mothers) increase risk but also exposure to relatively lower levels (heavy cigarette consumption and, perhaps, bleeding and threatened miscarriage) may decrease cancer risk. Int. J. Cancer 87:438–443, 2000.

Annual Report to the Nation on the Status of Cancer, 1975–2014, Featuring Survival

Abstract Background: The American Cancer Society (ACS), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the National Cancer Institute (NCI), and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries (NAACCR) collaborate to provide annual updates on cancer occurrence and trends in the United States. This Annual Report highlights survival rates. Methods: Data were from the CDC- and NCI-funded population-based cancer registry programs and compiled by NAACCR. Trends in age-standardized incidence and death rates for all cancers combined and for the leading cancer types by sex were estimated by joinpoint analysis and expressed as annual percent change. We used relative survival ratios and adjusted relative risk of death after a diagnosis of cancer (hazard ratios [HRs]) using Cox regression model to examine changes or differences in survival over time and by sociodemographic factors. Results: Overall cancer death rates from 2010 to 2014 decreased by 1.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] = –1.8 to –1.8) per year in men, by 1.4% (95% CI = –1.4 to –1.3) per year in women, and by 1.6% (95% CI = –2.0 to –1.3) per year in children. Death rates decreased for 11 of the 16 most common cancer types in men and for 13 of the 18 most common cancer types in women, including lung, colorectal, female breast, and prostate, whereas death rates increased for liver (men and women), pancreas (men), brain (men), and uterine cancers. In contrast, overall incidence rates from 2009 to 2013 decreased by 2.3% (95% CI = –3.1 to –1.4) per year in men but stabilized in women. For several but not all cancer types, survival statistically significantly improved over time for both early and late-stage diseases. Between 1975 and 1977, and 2006 and 2012, for example, five-year relative survival for distant-stage disease statistically significantly increased from 18.7% (95% CI = 16.9% to 20.6%) to 33.6% (95% CI = 32.2% to 35.0%) for female breast cancer but not for liver cancer (from 1.1%, 95% CI = 0.3% to 2.9%, to 2.3%, 95% CI = 1.6% to 3.2%). Survival varied by race/ethnicity and state. For example, the adjusted relative risk of death for all cancers combined was 33% (HR = 1.33, 95% CI = 1.32 to 1.34) higher in non-Hispanic blacks and 51% (HR = 1.51, 95% CI = 1.46 to 1.56) higher in non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native compared with non-Hispanic whites. Conclusions: Cancer death rates continue to decrease in the United States. However, progress in reducing death rates and improving survival is limited for several cancer types, underscoring the need for intensified efforts to discover new strategies for prevention, early detection, and treatment and to apply proven preventive measures broadly and equitably.

Using population‐based cancer registry data to assess the burden of human papillomavirus‐associated cancers in the United States: Overview of methods

Increased attention to human papillomavirus (HPV)‐associated cancers in light of the recent release of an HPV vaccine, as well as increased availability of cancer registry data that now include reporting from a large proportion of the US population, prompted the current assessment of HPV‐associated cancers. This article describes methods used to assess the burden of HPV‐associated cervical, vulvar, vaginal, penile, anal, and oral cavity/oropharyngeal cancers in the United States during 1998 through 2003 using cancer registry data, and it provides a brief overview of the epidemiology of these cancers. Cancer 2008;113(10 suppl):2841–54. Published 2008 by the American Cancer Society.

Building the infrastructure for nationwide cancer surveillance and control--a comparison between the National Program of Cancer Registries (NPCR) and the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program (United States).

Objective: In preparation for jointly publishing official government cancer statistics, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the National Cancer Institute (NCI) compared incidence rates from NCIs Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program and CDCs National Program of Cancer Registries (NPCR). Methods: Data for 1999 covering 78% of the US population were obtained from SEER and selected NPCR registries that met high quality data criteria. incidence rates (per 100,000 population) were age-adjusted to the 2000 US standard population, and 95% gamma confidence intervals were estimated Results: NPCR rates for all sites combined were higher than SEER rates (males: NPCR 553.6, SEER 538.7; females: NPCR 420.8, SEER 412.5), but rates for specific cancer sites varied by registry program. Rates for colon cancer (males: NPCR 47.0, SEER 42.7; females: NPCR 36.5, SEER 33.8) and tobacco-related cancers were higher in NPCR than SEER. In contrast, NPCR rates were lower than SEER rates for cancers of the female breaset (NPCR 134.0, SEER 135.9), prostate (NPCR 162.0, SEER 170.2), and melanoma as well as for cancers more common among Asians and Pacific Islanders (e.g., stomach cancer).Conclusions: Rate differences may arise from population difference in socio-demographic characteristics, screening use, health behaviors, exposure to cancer causing agents or registry operations factors.

The Past, Present, and Future of Cancer Incidence in the United States: 1975 Through 2020

The overall age‐standardized cancer incidence rate continues to decline whereas the number of cases diagnosed each year increases. Predicting cancer incidence can help to anticipate future resource needs, evaluate primary prevention strategies, and inform research.

Melanoma in adolescents and young adults (ages 15-39 years): United States, 1999-2006

BACKGROUND Invasive melanoma of the skin is the third most common cancer diagnosed among adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) in the United States. Understanding the burden of melanoma in this age group is important to identifying areas for etiologic research and in developing effective prevention approaches aimed at reducing melanoma risk. METHODS Melanoma incidence data reported from 38 National Program of Cancer Registries and/or Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results statewide cancer registries covering nearly 67.2% of the US population were used to estimate age-adjusted incidence rates for persons 15-39 years of age. Incidence rate ratios were calculated to compare rates between demographic groups. RESULTS Melanoma incidence was higher among females (age-adjusted incidence rates = 9.74; 95% confidence interval 9.62-9.86) compared with males (age-adjusted incidence rates = 5.77; 95% confidence interval 5.68-5.86), increased with age, and was higher in non-Hispanic white compared with Hispanic white and black, American Indians/Alaskan Natives, and Asian and Pacific Islanders populations. Melanoma incidence rates increased with year of diagnosis in females but not males. The majority of melanomas were diagnosed on the trunk in all racial and ethnic groups among males but only in non-Hispanic whites among females. Most melanomas were diagnosed at localized stage, and among those melanomas with known histology, the majority were superficial spreading. LIMITATIONS Accuracy of melanoma cases reporting was limited because of some incompleteness (delayed reporting) or nonspecific reporting including large proportion of unspecified histology. CONCLUSIONS Differences in incidence rates by anatomic site, histology, and stage among adolescents and young adults by race, ethnicity, and sex suggest that both host characteristics and behaviors influence risk. These data suggest areas for etiologic research around gene-environment interactions and the need for targeted cancer control activities specific to adolescents and young adult populations.

Breast cancer survival in the US and Europe: A CONCORD high-resolution study.

Breast cancer survival is reportedly higher in the US than in Europe. The first worldwide study (CONCORD) found wide international differences in age‐standardized survival. The aim of this study is to explain these survival differences. Population‐based data on stage at diagnosis, diagnostic procedures, treatment and follow‐up were collected for about 20,000 women diagnosed with breast cancer aged 15–99 years during 1996–98 in 7 US states and 12 European countries. Age‐standardized net survival and the excess hazard of death up to 5 years after diagnosis were estimated by jurisdiction (registry, country, European region), age and stage with flexible parametric models. Breast cancers were generally less advanced in the US than in Europe. Stage also varied less between US states than between European jurisdictions. Early, node‐negative tumors were more frequent in the US (39%) than in Europe (32%), while locally advanced tumors were twice as frequent in Europe (8%), and metastatic tumors of similar frequency (5–6%). Net survival in Northern, Western and Southern Europe (81–84%) was similar to that in the US (84%), but lower in Eastern Europe (69%). For the first 3 years after diagnosis the mean excess hazard was higher in Eastern Europe than elsewhere: the difference was most marked for women aged 70–99 years, and mainly confined to women with locally advanced or metastatic tumors. Differences in breast cancer survival between Europe and the US in the late 1990s were mainly explained by lower survival in Eastern Europe, where low healthcare expenditure may have constrained the quality of treatment.

AGE AT PUBERTY AND RISK OF TESTICULAR GERM CELL CANCER (ONTARIO, CANADA)

Objectives: Incidence rates of testicular cancer are increasing among postpubescent men. This suggests that putative exposures may operate early in life and have changed over time. The age at which endocrine activity accelerates (age at puberty) may be such an exposure. This study was undertaken to investigate the relationship between age at puberty and testicular cancer risk.Methods: A population-based case-control study was conducted in the province of Ontario, Canada which included males, aged 16 to 59 years, diagnosed with testicular germ cell cancer between 1987 and 1989, and age-matched controls. Data were collected on 502 cases, 346 case mothers, 975 controls, and 522 control mothers. Surrogate measures for age at puberty included age at starting to shave, appearance of hair, growth spurt, and voice change.Results: A protective effect of later puberty was evident for all four measures of puberty as reported by both subjects and mothers, and greater protection was conferred when the greatest number of later puberty events were reported. Risk associated with earlier puberty was inconclusive.Conclusions: As age at puberty is decreasing in the population, the proportion of boys experiencing the protective effect of later puberty may be diminishing. This may help explain the increasing incidence of testicular cancer. Cancer Causes and Control 1998, 9, 253-258