Hannah Shell

Measuring Potential Output

So many ways to measure potential output, so little consensus…But different measurements don’t necessarily alter central bank policy decisions.

A Regional Look at U.S. International Trade

Economic activity at the state level varies greatly across U.S. regions, with different states specializing in the production of particular goods and services. This heterogeneity in activity informs the geographic distribution of U.S. imports and exports. Using U.S. Census Bureau foreign trade statistics, the authors examine the distribution of U.S. international trade at the state level, controlling for commodities and major trading partners. They find that trade activity varies greatly from state to state and identify two factors affecting this pattern—proximity to a trading partner and geographic location of industries. This analysis is descriptive but can be seen as a step toward understanding the local impact of globalization and asymmetric trade exposure across U.S. regions.