Hannes Spengler

Socio-economic and demographic factors of crime in Germany: Evidence from panel data of the German States

Our study is based on the traditional Becker-Ehrlich deterrence model, but we analyse the model in the face of currently discussed factors of crime like demographic changes, youth-unemployment and income inequality. We use a panel of the German Laender (states) that allows us to exploit different experiences in densely and sparsely populated areas as well as in East and West Germany. Our results are based on static and dynamic panel econometrics/criminometrics. They confirm the deterrence hypothesis for crime against property. Only weak support can be observed for crime against the person. Economic and demographic factors reveal important and significant influences. Being young and unemployed increases the probability of committing crimes.

The impact of non-profit temping agencies on individual labour market success in the West German state of Rhineland-Palatinate

The paper presents an econometric evaluation of the effects of subsidised non-profit temporary employment agencies - a programme of the West German active labour market policy - on individual labour market outcomes. The empirical analysis is based on individual data from files for computer-assisted job brokering in Rhineland-Palatinate. Econometric estimates based on matching methods suggest that the programme generated a statistically significant additional reintegration success of about 13 per centage points. Furthermore within the first four month after leaving the programme, the estimated effect was about half a month additional employment for the participants.

Is Being 'Soft on Crime' the Solution to Rising Crime Rates?: Evidence from Germany

Based on a theoretical framework on informal, custodial and non-custodial sentencing, the paper provides econometric tests on the effectiveness of police, public prosecution and courts. Using a unique dataset covering German states for the period 1977- 2001, a comprehensive system of criminal prosecution indicators is derived and subsequently related to the incidence of six major offence categories using panel-econometrics. Empirical evidence suggests that the criminal policy of diversion failed as increasing shares of dismissals by prosecutors and judges enhance crime rates in Germany. Crime is significantly deterred by higher clearance and conviction rates, while the effects of indicators representing type (fine, probation, imprisonment) and severity (length of prison sentence, amount of fine) of punishment are often small and insignificant.

The impact of non-profit temping agencies on individual labour market success

The paper presents an econometric evaluation of the effects of subsidised non-profit temporary employment agencies - a programme of the German active labour market policy - on individual labour market outcomes. The empirical analysis is based on individual data from files for computer-assisted job brokering in Rhineland-Palatinate. Econometric estimates based on matching methods suggest that the programme generated a statistically significant additional reintegration success of about 13 per centage points. Within the first four months after leaving the programme, the cumulative effect was about half a month additional employment for the participants. Sensitivity and heterogeneity analyses indicate that the group of unemployed persons with higher participation probabilities are responsible for the positive mean programme impact.

Criminality, Social Cohesion and Economic Performance

The paper intends to contribute to a better understanding of the interactions between criminality, economic performance and social cohesion. We try to achieve this aim by evaluating the existing economic and criminological research and by carrying out own empirical investigation on the basis of international panel data sets from different levels of regional aggregation. Our empirical results with respect to the causes of crime clearly reveal the crime reducing potential of family cohesion and the link between crime and the labour market. Furthermore, we find that higher wealth is associated with higher rates of property crime and of drug-related offences. Drug offences themselves turn out to be robust factors of property crimes. Compared to studies assessing the causes of crime, investigations on its consequences are relatively rare. In our analysis, we investigate the impact of crime on economic performance. We find evidence that employment as well as GDP growth rates are negatively affected by the regional incidence of criminality.

Lokale Determinanten der Kriminalität und Tätermobilität: Eine empirische Studie mit Gemeindedaten

Einfache Regressionen der Haufigkeitszahlen verschiedener Kriminalitatsarten auf lokale Charakteristika bestatigen einen kriminalitatsfordernden Effekt der erwarteten Erlose aus illegalem Handeln und einen kriminalitatsreduzierenden Einfluss legaler Einkommenserzielungsmoglichkeiten. Uberdies zeigt sich, dass hohere Einkommensungleichheit mehr Delinquenz nach sich zieht. Allerdings ist die Kriminalitat in den untersuchten baden-wurttembergischen Gemeinden nicht nur auf die Gegebenheiten in den Tatortgemeinden sondern auch auf Bedingungen in den Nachbargemeinden zuruckzufuhren. Einblicke in die Beschaffenheit dieser raumlichen Effekte eroffnet die isolierte Betrachtung ortsfremder Tater. Die Ergebnisse lassen darauf schliesen, dass Tatermobilitat mit interkommunaler Ungleichheit und der verstarkten Segregation der Bevolkerung anwachst.