Hanno Petras

Effects of a universal classroom behavior management program in first and second grades on young adult behavioral, psychiatric, and social outcomes.

BACKGROUND The Good Behavior Game (GBG), a method of classroom behavior management used by teachers, was tested in first- and second-grade classrooms in 19 Baltimore City Public Schools beginning in the 1985-1986 school year. The intervention was directed at the classroom as a whole to socialize children to the student role and reduce aggressive, disruptive behaviors, confirmed antecedents of later substance abuse and dependence disorders, smoking, and antisocial personality disorder. This article reports on impact to ages 19-21. METHODS In five poor to lower-middle class, mainly African American urban areas, three or four schools were matched and within each set randomly assigned to one of three conditions: (1) GBG, (2) a curriculum-and-instruction program directed at reading achievement, or (3) the standard program. Balanced assignment of children to classrooms was made, and then, within intervention schools, classrooms and teachers were randomly assigned to intervention or control. RESULTS By young adulthood significant impact was found among males, particularly those in first grade who were more aggressive, disruptive, in reduced drug and alcohol abuse/dependence disorders, regular smoking, and antisocial personality disorder. These results underline the value of a first-grade universal prevention intervention. REPLICATION: A replication was implemented with the next cohort of first-grade children with the same teachers during the following school year, but with diminished mentoring and monitoring of teachers. The results showed significant GBG impact for males on drug abuse/dependence disorders with some variation. For other outcomes the effects were generally smaller but in the predicted direction.

Modeling growth in boys' aggressive behavior across elementary school: Links to later criminal involvement, conduct disorder, and antisocial personality disorder

The present study used general growth mixture modeling to identify pathways of antisocial behavior development within an epidemiological sample of urban, primarily African American boys. Teacher-rated aggression, measured longitudinally from 1st to 7th grade, was used to define growth trajectories. Three high-risk trajectories (chronic high, moderate, and increasing aggression) and one low-risk trajectory (stable low aggression) were found. Boys with chronic high and increasing trajectories were at increased risk for conduct disorder, juvenile and adult arrest, and antisocial personality disorder. Concentration problems were highest among boys with a chronic high trajectory and also differentiated boys with increasing aggression from boys with stable low aggression. Peer rejection was highest among boys with chronic high aggression. Interventions with boys with distinct patterns of aggression are discussed.

Methods for testing theory and evaluating impact in randomized field trials: Intent-to-treat analyses for integrating the perspectives of person, place, and time

Randomized field trials provide unique opportunities to examine the effectiveness of an intervention in real world settings and to test and extend both theory of etiology and theory of intervention. These trials are designed not only to test for overall intervention impact but also to examine how impact varies as a function of individual level characteristics, context, and across time. Examination of such variation in impact requires analytical methods that take into account the trials multiple nested structure and the evolving changes in outcomes over time. The models that we describe here merge multilevel modeling with growth modeling, allowing for variation in impact to be represented through discrete mixtures--growth mixture models--and nonparametric smooth functions--generalized additive mixed models. These methods are part of an emerging class of multilevel growth mixture models, and we illustrate these with models that examine overall impact and variation in impact. In this paper, we define intent-to-treat analyses in group-randomized multilevel field trials and discuss appropriate ways to identify, examine, and test for variation in impact without inflating the Type I error rate. We describe how to make causal inferences more robust to misspecification of covariates in such analyses and how to summarize and present these interactive intervention effects clearly. Practical strategies for reducing model complexity, checking model fit, and handling missing data are discussed using six randomized field trials to show how these methods may be used across trials randomized at different levels.

A comparison of girls' and boys' aggressive-disruptive behavior trajectories across elementary school: Prediction to young adult antisocial outcomes.

Multiple group analysis and general growth mixture modeling was used to determine whether aggressive- disruptive behavior trajectories during elementary school, and their association with young adulthood antisocial outcomes, vary by gender. Participants were assessed longitudinally beginning at age 6 as part of an evaluation of 2 school-based preventive programs. Two analogous trajectories were found for girls and boys: chronic high aggression- disruption (CHAD) and stable low aggression- disruption (LAD). A 3rd class of low moderate aggression- disruption (LMAD) for girls and increasing aggression- disruption (IAD) for boys also was found. Girls and boys in analogous CHAD classes did not differ in trajectory level and course, but girls in the CHAD and LAD classes had lower rates of antisocial outcomes than boys. Girls with the LMAD trajectory differed from boys with the IAD trajectory.

General Growth Mixture Analysis with Antecedents and Consequences of Change

Many studies of youth, adolescents, and adults related to delinquent, antisocial, and criminal offending, have utilized a language of trajectory typologies to describe individual differences in the behavioral course manifest in their longitudinal data. The two most common statistical methods currently in use are the semiparametric group-based modeling, also known as latent class growth analysis and general growth mixture analysis, with the latter method being the focus of this chapter. In concert with the growing popularity of these data-driven, group-based methods for studying developmental and life-course behavior trajectories have come active and spirited ontological discussions about the nature of the emergent trajectory groups resulting from the analyses. In this chapter, we presuppose that there are analytic, empirical, and substantive advantages inherent in using discrete components to (partially) describe population heterogeneity in longitudinal processes. Conceptually as well as empirically, we will discuss the use of auxiliary information in terms of antecedents and consequences of trajectory group membership. The inclusion of auxiliary information in growth mixture analysis is a necessary step in understanding as well as evaluating the fidelity and utility of the resultant trajectory profiles from a given study, regardless of one’s beliefs about the veracity of the method itself.

Developmental epidemiological courses leading to antisocial personality disorder and violent and criminal behavior: Effects by young adulthood of a universal preventive intervention in first- and second-grade classrooms

BACKGROUND Antisocial personality disorder (ASPD), violent and criminal behavior, and drug abuse disorders share the common antecedent of early aggressive, disruptive behavior. In the 1985-1986 school year teachers implemented the Good Behavior Game (GBG), a classroom behavior management strategy targeting aggressive, disruptive behavior and socializing children to the student role. From first through seventh grade the developmental trajectories of 2311 students from 19 Baltimore City Public Schools were examined. We report the GBG impact on these trajectories and ASPD and violent and criminal behavior by age 19-21. METHODS In five urban, poor to lower middle class predominately African-American areas, three to four schools were matched and within each set randomly assigned to one of three conditions: (1) GBG, (2) a reading achievement program, or (3) the standard program. Classrooms and teachers were randomly assigned to intervention or control. Measures at 19-21 included self reports and juvenile court and adult incarceration records. GBG impact was assessed via General Growth Mixture Modeling based on repeated measures of aggressive, disruptive behavior. RESULTS Three trajectories of aggressive, disruptive behavior were identified. By young adulthood, GBG significantly reduced the rates of ASPD and violent and criminal behavior among males in the persistent high aggressive, disruptive trajectory. REPLICATION: A replication was implemented with the following cohort of first-grade children using the same teachers, but with diminished mentoring and monitoring. Beneficial impact was found among persistent high males through seventh grade. By young adulthood GBG effects on ASPD and violent and criminal behavior were non-significant, but generally in the hypothesized direction.

Empirically Derived Subtypes of Child Academic and Behavior Problems: Co-Occurrence and Distal Outcomes.

The aim of this study was to identify classes of children at entry into first grade with different patterns of academic and behavior problems. A latent class analysis was conducted with a longitudinal community sample of 678 predominantly low-income African American children. Results identified multiple subclasses of children, including a class with co-occurring academic and behavior problems. Gender differences were found in relation to the number of identified classes and the characteristics of academic and behavior problems for children. Several of the identified classes, particularly the co-occurring academic and behavior problems subclass for both genders, predicted negative long-term outcomes in sixth grade, including academic failure, receipt of special education services, affiliation with deviant peers, suspension from school, and elevated risk for conduct problems. The finding that subclasses of academic and behavior problems predict negative long-term outcomes validates the importance of the identified classes and the need to target interventions for children presenting with the associated class characteristics. Implications for early identification, prevention, and intervention for children at risk for academic failure and disruptive behavior problems are discussed.

Predicting Negative Life Outcomes from Early Aggressive–Disruptive Behavior Trajectories: Gender Differences in Maladaptation Across Life Domains

Transactional theories of development suggest that displaying high levels of antisocial behavior early in life and persistently over time causes disruption in multiple life domains, which in turn places individuals at risk for negative life outcomes. We used longitudinal data from 1,137 primarily African American urban youth (49.1% female) to determine whether different trajectories of aggressive and disruptive behavior problems were associated with a range of negative life outcomes in young adulthood. General growth mixture modeling was used to classify the youths’ patterns of aggressive–disruptive behavior across elementary school. These trajectories were then used to predict early sexual activity, early pregnancy, school dropout, unemployment, and drug abuse in young adulthood. The trajectories predicted the number but not type of negative life outcomes experienced. Girls with the chronic high aggression–disruption (CHAD) pattern experienced more negative outcomes than girls with consistently moderate levels, who were at greater risk than nonaggressive–nondisruptive girls. Boys with CHAD and boys with an increasing pattern had equal levels of risk for experiencing negative outcomes. The findings are consistent with transactional models of development and have implications for preventive interventions.

When the course of aggressive behavior in childhood does not predict antisocial outcomes in adolescence and young adulthood: An examination of potential explanatory variables

Theoretical models and empirical studies suggest that there are a number of distinct pathways of aggressive behavior development in childhood that place youth at risk for antisocial outcomes in adolescence and young adulthood. The prediction of later antisocial behavior based on these early pathways, although substantial, is not perfect. The goal of the present study was to identify factors that explain why some boys on a high-risk developmental trajectory in middle childhood do not experience an untoward outcome, and, conversely, why some boys progressing on a low-risk trajectory do become involved in later antisocial behavior. To that end, we explored a set of theoretically derived predictors measured at entrance to elementary and middle school and examined their utility in explaining discordant cases. First-grade reading achievement, race, and poverty status proved to be significant early predictors of discordance, whereas the significant middle-school predictors were parent monitoring, deviant peer affiliation, and neighborhood level of deviant behavior.

Gender differences in patterns of risk factors among children receiving mental health services: latent class analyses.

Latent class analyses were used to analyze data from a sample of children participating in the national evaluation of the Comprehensive Communities Mental Health Services for Children and Their Families Program (N = 6786). Lifetime risk experiences of the child were analyzed to identify 4 classes of boys and girls with similar risk patterns. While low-risk, status-offense, abuse, and high-risk classes were identified for both boys and girls, there were nearly half the number of girls in the low-risk class, almost as many in the status-offense class, twice as many in the abuse class, and more than 3 three times as many in the high-risk class as there were boys. These findings suggest that there are specific groups of children entering services who differ as a function of their lifetime risk exposure. In addition, the relationship between class membership and child functioning, and class membership and family lifetime risk experiences. Understanding these differences provides critical information to the service planning process. In addition, it may result in immediate improvement in the triage of children into services and a better understanding of their behaviors during and after treatment.