Hans Abrahamsson

Out of the Trap

The argument of this study is that the uneven process of globalisation, reinforced short-term and long-term contradictions, and a new pattern of conflicts has resulted in a need for the political elites in theWestern countries to redefine their national security interests vis-a-vis Sub-Saharan Africa. This need has been accentuated by the end of the ColdWar. A consensus has been reached by a more reformistic economic and political elite with enlightened self-interest on the importance of allowing an African bourgeoisie to emerge that can elaborate and implement an inclusive process of accumulation, facilitating increased local participation, purchasing power and rehabilitated social trust. In order to avoid the trap of low-level security equilibrium, there is a need for an alternative development strategy that combines constructive aspects of modernisation with values from the traditional sector.

Mozambique and the Washington Consensus

When Mozambique turned to the USA for food aid in April 1981, the answer was No.1 Relations improved gradually following strong recommendations to President Reagan from Prime Minister Thatcher to improve the dialogue with Mozambique within the framework of the US policy of ‘constructive engagement’ (Howe 1994, p. 312).

A Globality with Contradictory Circumstances

The analytical model elaborated in the previous chapter, aiming to identify forces of change, suggests different outcomes depending on which part of the world is analysed. Nevertheless, it is the argument of this chapter that at a rather higher level of generalisation and in general terms the global contradictory circumstances have been reinforced during the 1990s.

Bretton Woods Revisited

International political economy has devoted substantial attention to the BrettonWoods system, to the role of hegemony and to US leadership in the Cold War world order. Within the field of development theory, the roots of the present financial disorder and the role of the Bretton Woods institutions in debt management have also been fairly well analysed, including their short-term impact on Third World countries.

Towards a Structural Opportunity for Change

In this chapter, the different threads presented in the preceding chapters will be brought together to assess the room for manoeuvre for future national governance in southern Africa. The main argument is that Sub-Saharan Africa presently faces a structural opportunity for change. In the post-Cold War era, coinciding interests at different levels have emerged striving to come to terms with the interacting global and local contradictory circumstances, thereby increasing the political room for manoeuvre. The question in focus here is the circumstances permitting such an opportunity to be seized.

The Role of International Development Cooperation

In order to allow an African national elite to emerge, capable of elaborating and implementing a development strategy aimed at increased local participation, purchasing power and rehabilitated social trust, an encompassing transformation of some of the prevailing world order structures will be required. In this chapter we primarily focus on the role of international development cooperation. The main argument is that aid, if properly designed, could make an important contribution ending frustrations at local level and thereby contribute to peace and development.

Pax Americana and Southern Africa: Coinciding Interests and Change

Chapter 2 argued that the long-term US interest in diffusing Western values and belief systems was aimed at the consolidation of its international leadership. AfterWorldWar II, these long-term interests most frequently corresponded to US short-term security interest in the Cold War-based ‘policy of containment’. At times the short- and long-term interests diverge to the extent that clear contradictions between the two appear. Measures taken in order to deal with such contradictions simultaneously increase the room for manoeuvre for structural change.

An Analytical Model for Action

Assisted by the conceptual framework and theoretical guidelines predominant within critical IPE, a set of ’core concepts’ can be elaborated and developed into an analytical model designed to study processes behind structural change. In this chapter we will develop and discuss such a model, drawing from preceding chapters dealing with the Bretton Woods Conference and the abolition of the apartheid system in South Africa. We will also revisit the process around the demands for a New International Economic Order (NIEO) during the 1970s as an illustration of the forces at work. These demands, which were raised by the Non-Aligned Movement in the mid-1970s, envisaged a similar kind of structural change as this study.