Hans-Balder Havenith

A new classification of earthquake-induced landslide event sizes based on seismotectonic, topographic, climatic and geologic factors

BackgroundThis paper reviews the classical and some particular factors contributing to earthquake-triggered landslide activity. This analysis should help predict more accurately landslide event sizes, both in terms of potential numbers and affected area. It also highlights that some occurrences, especially those very far from the hypocentre/activated fault, cannot be predicted by state-of-the-art methods. Particular attention will be paid to the effects of deep focal earthquakes in Central Asia and to other extremely distant landslide activations in other regions of the world (e.g. Saguenay earthquake 1988, Canada).ResultsThe classification of seismically induced landslides and the related ‘event sizes’ is based on five main factors: ‘Intensity’, ‘Fault factor’, ‘Topographic energy’, ‘Climatic background conditions’, ‘Lithological factor’. Most of these data were extracted from papers, but topographic inputs were checked by analyzing the affected region in Google Earth. The combination and relative weight of the factors was tested through comparison with well documented events and complemented by our studies of earthquake-triggered landslides in Central Asia. The highest relative weight (6) was attributed to the ‘Fault factor’; the other factors all received a smaller relativexa0weight (2–4). The high weight of the ‘Fault factor’ (based on the location in/outside the mountain range, the fault type and length) is strongly constrained by the importance of the Wenchuan earthquake that, for example, triggered far more landslides in 2008 than the Nepal earthquake in 2015: the main difference is that the fault activated by the Wenchuan earthquake created an extensive surface rupture within the Longmenshan Range marked by a very high topographic energy while the one activated by the Nepal earthquake ruptured the surface in the frontal part of the Himalayas where the slopes are less steep and high.Finally, the calibrated factor combination was applied to almost 100 other earthquake events for which some landslide information was available. This comparison revealed the ability of the classification to provide a reasonable estimate of the number of triggered landslides and of the size of the affected area. According to this prediction, the most severe earthquake-triggered landslide event of the last one hundred years would actually be the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 followed by the 1950 Assam earthquake in India – considering that the dominating role of the Wenchuan earthquake data (including the availability of a complete landslide inventory) for the weighting of the factors strongly influences and may even bias this result. The strongest landslide impacts on human life in recent history were caused by the Haiyuan-Gansu earthquake in 1920 – ranked as third most severe event according to our classification: its size is due to a combination of high shaking intensity, an important ‘Fault factor’ and the extreme susceptibility of the regional loess cover to slope failure, while the surface morphology of the affected area is much smoother than the one affected by the Wenchuan 2008 or the Nepal 2015 earthquakes.ConclusionsThe main goal of the classification of earthquake-triggered landslide events is to help improve total seismic hazard assessment over short and longer terms.Considering the general performance of the classification-prediction, it can be seen that the prediction either fits or overestimates the known/observed number of triggered landslides for a series of earthquakes, while it often underestimates the size of the affected area. For several events (especially the older ones), the overestimation of the number of landslides can be partly explained by the incompleteness of the published catalogues. The underestimation of the extension of the area, however, is real – as some particularities cannot be taken into account by such a general approach: notably, we used the same seismic intensity attenuation for all events, while attenuation laws are dependent on regional tectonic and geological conditions. In this regard, it is likely that the far-distant triggering of landslides, e.g., by the 1988 Saguenay earthquake (and the related extreme extension of affected area) is due to a very low attenuation of seismic energy within the North American plate. Far-distant triggering of landslides in Central Asia can be explained by the susceptibility of slopes covered by thick soft soils to failure under the effect of low-frequency shaking induced by distant earthquakes, especially by the deep focal earthquakes in the Pamir – Hindukush seismic region. Such deep focal and high magnitude (>u2009>u20097) earthquakes are also found in Europe, first of all in the Vrancea region (Romania). For this area as well as for the South Tien Shan we computed possible landslide event sizes related to some future earthquake scenarios.

2D dynamic studies combined with the surface curvature analysis to predict Arias Intensity amplification

A 2D elasto-dynamic modelling of the pure topographic seismic response is performed for six models with a total length of around 23.0xa0km. These models are reconstructed from the real topographic settings of the landslide-prone slopes situated in the Mailuu-Suu River Valley, Southern Kyrgyzstan. The main studied parameter is the Arias Intensity (Ia, m/sec), which is applied in the GIS-based Newmark method to regionally map the seismically-induced landslide susceptibility. This method maps the Ia values via empirical attenuation laws and our studies investigate a potential to include topographic input into them. Numerical studies analyse several signals with varying shape and changing central frequency values. All tests demonstrate that the spectral amplification patterns directly affect the amplification of the Ia values. These results let to link the 2D distribution of the topographically amplified Ia values with the parameter called as smoothed curvature. The amplification values for the low-frequency signals are better correlated with the curvature smoothed over larger spatial extent, while those values for the high-frequency signals are more linked to the curvature with smaller smoothing extent. The best predictions are provided by the curvature smoothed over the extent calculated according to Geli’s law. The sample equations predicting the Ia amplification based on the smoothed curvature are presented for the sinusoid-shape input signals. These laws cannot be directly implemented in the regional Newmark method, as 3D amplification of the Ia values addresses more problem complexities which are not studied here. Nevertheless, our 2D results prepare the theoretical framework which can potentially be applied to the 3D domain and, therefore, represent a robust basis for these future research targets.

Occurrences and genesis of palygorskite/sepiolite and associated minerals in the Barzaman formation, United Arab Emirates

Abstract The Barzaman Formation exposed in the United Arab Emirates was deposited as a series of fluvial sediment sequences lying along the western margin of the Hajar Mountains, part of the Oman-UAE ophiolite. This formation consists of a sequence of rocks dominated by variably cemented and altered conglomerates comprising calcareous siltstones and calcareous clays deposited during the Miocene to Pliocene under a humid climate. The conglomerates are composed largely of ultramafic and lesser-mafic clasts. The present study was undertaken in order to understand the occurrence and genesis of palygorskite and sepiolite in relation to the environmental changes including evaporitic and sabkha environments. Sediments were collected from two trenches and a drill hole of ∼22 m depth. Samples were analysed by optical petrograpy, X-ray diffraction and scanning electron microscopy. Pedogenesis occurred at the deeper level in well cemented conglomerate which constitutes the hard crust. Post-depositional erosion started in marine phreatic or vadose zones as shown by the neoformation of serpentine from the weathering of olivine as well as of calcite and dolomite. Neoformation of palygorskite, sepiolite, dolomite and halite occurred under evaporitic conditions on calcareous silty clay facies. Relatively hot, vadose and oxidizing environmental conditions affected the calcareous siltstone facies leading to the genesis of dolomite and palygorskite by direct precipitation from solution rich in Ca, Mg, Al, Fe and Si ions.

GIS-Based Landslide Susceptibility Mapping in the Great Lakes Region of Africa, Case Study of Bujumbura Burundi

Landslides in Central Africa represent a constant threat to the population. The present work took its motivation from the increasing number of recorded incidents in recent times. It is focused on the analysis of mass movements in a regional context. Remote sensing based on the use of satellite images (Pleiades images of 2011) and aerial photographs (1957, 1958 and 1981) allowed us to identify instabilities at different scales. The study of these mass movements and the characterization of the processes governing their release and their evolution in time and space helped us to understand their mechanism. Through the use of geographic information systems, parameters governing the evolution of these instabilities have been identified as well as the relationship between them. Several factors including rainfall, geology and topography and in some extent the human action proved to have an influence on landslides mechanisms and the associated hazard in this region.

The Kambarata 2 blast-fill dam, Kyrgyz Republic:blast event, geophysical monitoring and dam structure modelling

BackgroundThe blast- and earth-fill dam of the Kambarata 2 hydropower station is situated in the seismically active Central Tien Shan region of the Kyrgyz Republic. More than 70% of the dam volume was produced during a blast event on December 22, 2009. In 2010–2011, dam construction was completed after earth filling on top of the blasted material and installing concrete and clay screens together with bentonite grouts. A geophysical survey had been completed in 2012–2013, mainly to monitor the resistivities inside the dam.ResultsThe geophysical survey completed on the Kambarata 2 dam site showed lower resistivity zones in the earth fill and relatively higher resistivities in the blast-fill material. Topographic, geophysical and piezometric inputs had been compiled within a 3D geomodel constructed with GOCAD software. This model was compared with the design structure of the dam in order to define the upper limits of the underlying alluvium, the deposited blast fill, earth fill and top gravel materials (represented by the dam surface). The central cross-section of this model was extrapolated over the full length of the main dam profile.ConclusionsOn the basis of a calibrated hydrogeological model and known geomechanical properties of the materials, dam stability calculations were completed for different scenarios considering different reservoir levels and varying seismic conditions. Some of these scenarios indicated a critical vulnerability of the dam, e.g., if impacted by a horizontal seismic acceleration of Ahu2009=u20090.3xa0g and a vertical seismic acceleration Avu2009=u20090.15xa0g, with an estimated return period of 475xa0years.As a general conclusion, it was noted that this case study can be used as an example for surveys on much larger natural – landslide or moraine – dams. A series of geophysical methods (e.g., electrical and electro-magnetic techniques, seismic and microseismic measurements) can be applied to investigate even very deep dam structures. These methods have the advantage over classical direct prospecting techniques, such as drilling, of using equipment that is much lighter and thus more easily transportable and applicable in difficult terrain. Furthermore, they can provide continuous information over wider areas. This specific application to a blast-fill dam allows us to better outline the strengths and weaknesses of the exploration types and geomodels as a series of investigated parameters can be verified more easily than for natural dams.

Immersive visualization of geophysical data

In this application paper well explain the work flow we use to create immersive visualizations and spatial interaction for geophysical data with a head mounted device (HMD). The data that we analyze consists of two dimensional geographical map data and raw geophysical measurements with devices like seismometers, Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) and seismic tomography profiles as well as other geophysical and geoscientific data. We show the tool chain that we use while explaining the choices that we made along the way. The technical description will be followed by a brief assessment of the added benefit of rendering our data in virtual reality (VR). After the technical description we conclude this paper with some outlook on the (likely) future use of VR in geosciences.