Hans Estrup Andersen

Climate change effects on runoff, catchment phosphorus loading and lake ecological state, and potential adaptations.

Climate change may have profound effects on phosphorus (P) transport in streams and on lake eutrophication. Phosphorus loading from land to streams is expected to increase in northern temperate coastal regions due to higher winter rainfall and to a decline in warm temperate and arid climates. Model results suggest a 3.3 to 16.5% increase within the next 100 yr in the P loading of Danish streams depending on soil type and region. In lakes, higher eutrophication can be expected, reinforced by temperature-mediated higher P release from the sediment. Furthermore, a shift in fish community structure toward small and abundant plankti-benthivorous fish enhances predator control of zooplankton, resulting in higher phytoplankton biomass. Data from Danish lakes indicate increased chlorophyll a and phytoplankton biomass, higher dominance of dinophytes and cyanobacteria (most notably of nitrogen fixing forms), but lower abundance of diatoms and chrysophytes, reduced size of copepods and cladocerans, and a tendency to reduced zooplankton biomass and zooplankton:phytoplankton biomass ratio when lakes warm. Higher P concentrations are also seen in warm arid lakes despite reduced external loading due to increased evapotranspiration and reduced inflow. Therefore, the critical loading for good ecological state in lakes has to be lowered in a future warmer climate. This calls for adaptation measures, which in the northern temperate zone should include improved P cycling in agriculture, reduced loading from point sources, and (re)-establishment of wetlands and riparian buffer zones. In the arid Southern Europe, restrictions on human use of water are also needed, not least on irrigation.

Climate change effects on nitrogen loading from cultivated catchments in Europe: implications for nitrogen retention, ecological state of lakes and adaptation

Climate change might have profound effects on the nitrogen (N) dynamics in the cultivated landscape as well as on N transport in streams and the eutrophication of lakes. N loading from land to streams is expected to increase in North European temperate lakes due to higher winter rainfall and changes in cropping patterns. Scenario (IPCC, A2) analyses using a number of models of various complexity for Danish streams and lakes suggest an increase in runoff and N transport on an annual basis (higher during winter and typically lower during summer) in streams, a slight increase in N concentrations in streams despite higher losses in riparian wetlands, higher absolute retention of N in lakes (but not as percentage of loading), but only minor changes in lake water concentrations. However, when taking into account also a predicted higher temperature there is a risk of higher frequency and abundance of potentially toxic cyanobacteria in lakes and they may stay longer during the season. Somewhat higher risk of loss of submerged macrophytes at increased N and phosphorus (P) loading and a shift to dominance of small-sized fish preying upon the key grazers on phytoplankton may also enhance the risk of lake shifts from clear to turbid in a warmer North European temperate climate. However, it must be emphasised that the prediction of N transport and thus effects is uncertain as the prediction of regional precipitation and changes in land-use is uncertain. By contrast, N loading is expected to decline in warm temperate and arid climates. However, in warm arid lakes much higher N concentrations are currently observed despite reduced external loading. This is due to increased evapotranspiration leading to higher nutrient concentrations in the remaining water, but may also reflect a low-oxygen induced reduction of nitrification. Therefore, the critical N as well as P loading for good ecological state in lakes likely has to be lower in a future warmer climate in both north temperate and Mediterranean lakes. To obtain this objective, adaptation measures are required. In both climate zones the obvious methods are to change agricultural practices for reducing the loss of nutrients to surface waters, to improve sewage treatment and to reduce the storm-water nutrient runoff. In north temperate zones adaptations may also include re-establishment of artificial and natural wetlands, introduction of riparian buffer zones and re-meandering of channelised streams, which may all have a large impact on, not least, the N loading of lakes. In the arid zone, also restrictions on human use of water are urgently needed, not least on the quantity of water used for irrigation purposes.

Ensemble modelling of nutrient loads and nutrient load partitioning in 17 European catchments

An ensemble of nutrient models was applied in 17 European catchments to analyse the variation that appears after simulation of net nutrient loads and partitioning of nutrient loads at catchment scale. Eight models for N and five models for P were applied in three core catchments covering European-wide gradients in climate, topography, soil types and land use (Vansjø-Hobøl (Norway), Ouse (Yorkshire, UK) and Enza (Italy)). Moreover, each of the models was applied in 3-14 other EUROHARP catchments in order to inter-compare the outcome of the nutrient load partitioning at a wider European scale. The results of the nutrient load partitioning show a variation in the computed average annual nitrogen and phosphorus loss from agricultural land within the 17 catchments between 19.1-34.6 kg N ha(-1) and 0.12-1.67 kg P ha(-1). All the applied nutrient models show that the catchment specific variation (range and standard deviation) in the model results is lowest when simulating the net nutrient load and becomes increasingly higher for simulation of the gross nutrient loss from agricultural land and highest for the simulations of the gross nutrient loss from other diffuse sources in the core catchments. The average coefficient of variation for the model simulations of gross P loss from agricultural land is nearly twice as high (67%) as for the model simulations of gross N loss from agricultural land (40%). The variation involved in model simulations of net nutrient load and gross nutrient losses in European catchments was due to regional factors and the presence or absence of large lakes within the catchment.

Description of nine nutrient loss models: capabilities and suitability based on their characteristics

In EUROHARP, an EC Framework V project, which started in 2002 with 21 partners in 17 countries across Europe, a detailed intercomparison of contemporary catchment-scale modelling approaches was undertaken to characterise the relative importance of point and diffuse pollution of nutrients in surface freshwater systems. The study focused on the scientific evaluation of different modelling approaches, which were validated on three core catchments (the Ouse, UK; the Vansjo-Hobøl, Norway; and the Enza, Italy), and the application of each tool to three additional, randomly chosen catchments across Europe. The tools involved differ profoundly in their complexity, level of process representation and data requirements. The tools include simple loading models, statistical, conceptual and empirical model approaches, and physics-based (mechanistic) models. The results of a scientific intercomparison of the characteristics of these different model approaches are described. This includes an analysis of potential strengths and weaknesses of the nutrient models.

Electrophoretic Analysis of Proteins from Mycoplasma hominis Strains Detected by SDS-PAGE, Two-dimensional Gel Electrophoresis and Immunoblotting

The proteins of 14 strains of Mycoplasma hominis were compared by SDS-PAGE in gradient gels, by two-dimensional (2D) gel electrophoresis of extracts of 35S-labelled cells and by immunoblot analysis of cell proteins. The strains examined included the M. hominis type strain PG21 and 13 others isolated variously from genital tract, mouth, blood, upper urinary tract and a wound. These 14 strains shared 76-99% of proteins in SDS-gradient gel analysis and 41-72% in the 2D gels. As expected, the immunoblot analysis likewise revealed the existence of an extensive common protein pattern in M. hominis, in addition to a number of antigens shared only by some strains.

Rejecting the mean: Estimating the response of fen plant species to environmental factors by non-linear quantile regression

Abstract Question: Is quantile regression an appropriate statistical approach to estimate the response of fen species to single environmental factors? Background: Data sets in vegetation field studies are often characterized by a large number of zeros and they are generally incomplete in respect to the factors which possibly influence plant species distribution. Thus, it is problematic to relate plant species abundance to single environmental factors by the ordinary least squares regression technique of the conditional mean. Location: Riparian herbaceous fen in central Jutland (Denmark). Methods: Semi-parametric quantile regression was used to estimate the response of 18 plant species to six environmental factors, 95% regression quantiles were chosen to reduce the impact of multiple unmeasured factors on the regression analyses. Results of 95% quantile regression and ordinary least squares regression were compared. Results: The standard regression of the conditional mean underestimated the rates of change of species cover due to the selected factor in comparison to 95% regression quantiles. The fitted response curves indicated a general broad tolerance of the studied fen species to different flooding durations but a narrower range concerning groundwater amplitude. The cover of all species was related to soil exchangeable phosphate and base-richness. A relationship between soil exchangeable potassium and species cover was only found for 11 species. Conclusion: Considering the characteristics of data sets in vegetation science, non-linear quantile regression is a useful method for gradient analyses. Nomenclature: Wisskirchen & Haeupler (1998).

Heterogeneity among Mycoplasma hominis Strains as Detected by Probes Containing Parts of Ribosomal Ribonucleic Acid Genes

To determine deoxyribonucleic acid sequence variability within ribosomal ribonucleic acid (rRNA) genes and flanking regions of Mycoplasma hominis, plasmids containing parts of rRNA genes from Mycoplasma sp. strain PG50 or M. hominis type strain PG21 were used as probes to detect restriction fragment length polymorphisms (RFLPs). A total of 26 M. hominis strains selected to show either maximum diversity (14 strains) or possible cluster formation (12 strains) with respect to antigenic and genetic composition were included in the study. Although most of the RFLPs observed could be explained by variation in restriction enzyme cleavage sites outside the rRNA cistrons, variation in restriction enzyme cleavage sites within rRNA cistrons was also observed. RFLPs within the rRNA genes were demonstrated in three strains from the group selected to show heterogeneity. RFLPs outside the rRNA genes were equally pronounced in the two groups of M. hominis strains.

Thyrotropin response to thyrotropin-releasing hormone in fullterm, euthyroid and hypothyroid newborns.

Abstract. The serum concentration of thyrotropin (TSH) and the TSH response following thyrotropin‐releasing hormone (TRH) were studied in 16 euthyroid babies from 16 to 172 hours after birth and in 2 primary hypothyroid babies, 3 and 28 days of age. Serum‐TSH was measured before an intravenous injection of 40 μug TRH and after 30 and 180 min. In the euthyroid babies increased basal levels of TSH were seen shortly after birth, followed by a pronounced decline. The extent of TSH increase after TRH could be correlated with the basal levels, and the relative increase was comparable to that which occurs in adults. In the hypothyroid babies very high basal levels of serum‐TSH were seen, 125 and 400 μ/ml respectively, with no further increase following TRH stimulation. It was concluded that in euthyroid fullterm newborn, the relative response of serum‐TSH to TRH was equal to that of adults, in spite of elevated thyroid hormone concentrations. In the hypothyroid newborn very high levels of serum‐TSH were seen and a supplementary TRH‐test seems without diagnostic value in congenital hypothyroidism.

Electrophoretic analysis of proteins from Mycoplasma capricolum and related serotypes using extracts from intact cells and from minicells containing cloned mycoplasma DNA

The acidic proteins of six different mycoplasma serotypes causing bovine or caprine pleuropneumonia were compared by two-dimensional gel electrophoresis of extracts of 35S-labelled cells. The organisms investigated were Mycoplasma mycoides subsp. mycoides (PG1), M. mycoides subsp. mycoides (Y-goat), M. mycoides subsp. capri (PG3), M. capricolum (California kid), the unclassified bovine serogroup 7 of Leach (PG50) and the F38-like group (F38). The results suggested a close relationship between M. capricolum and F38 and a similarly close relationship between the different M. mycoides subspecies, whereas the two M. mycoides subspecies appeared to be quite distant from M. capricolum and F38. The representative strain of the bovine serogroup 7 of Leach was equally distant from F38, M. capricolum and the three strains of M. mycoides. Strikingly, all six mycoplasma strains apparently shared six proteins in the two-dimensional gels. In Escherichia coli minicells, DNA from strain PG50 cloned in the vector pBR325 gave rise to incorporation of radioactive label into proteins which were identified as mycoplasma proteins by two-dimensional electrophoresis and immunoprecipitation.

Multiobjective Calibration for Comparing Channel Sediment Routing Models in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool

Sediment transport is important for ecology and water quality in receiving waters. Physically based channel erosion methods were implemented in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool version 2009 (SWAT2009) to improve sediment concentration (SS) results. In the study, the default simplified Bagnold sediment routing method (EQN-0) and the physically based simplified Bagnold sediment routing method (EQN-1) were compared with Pareto fronts from multiobjective calibration. Two SWAT models using EQN-0 and EQN-1 were set up for a small agricultural Danish catchment and calibrated with multiobjective calibration on daily and weekly flow-weighted SS (WF SS). Results showed that the Pareto front of EQN-1 was slightly closer to the optimal point than EQN-0 in the objective space. Trade-off between WF SS and daily flow in EQN-1 was smaller than in EQN-0. The EQN-0 method generated more surface erosion to improve WF SS. The EQN-1 method generated more base flow to improve WF SS. The EQN-1 method was less dependent on surface erosion and simulated peak and low values of WF SS better than EQN-0. Therefore, EQN-1 is more suitable than EQN-0 in modeling SS in small lowland catchments.