Hans-Holger Rogner

CARBON EMISSION AND MITIGATION COST COMPARISONS BETWEEN FOSSIL FUEL, NUCLEAR AND RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION

A study was conducted to compare the electricity generation costs of a number of current commercial technologies with technologies expected to become commercially available within the coming decade or so. The amount of greenhouse gas emissions resulting per kWh of electricity generated were evaluated. A range of fossil fuel alternatives (with and without physical carbon sequestration),were compared with the baseline case of a pulverised coal,steam cycle power plant. Nuclear,hydro,wind,bioenergy and solar generating plants were also evaluated. The objectives were to assess the comparative costs of mitigation per tonne of carbon emissions avoided,and to estimate the total amount of carbon mitigation that could result from the global electricity sector by 2010 and 2020 as a result of fuel switching,carbon dioxide sequestration and the greater uptake of renewable energy. Most technologies showed potential to reduce both generating costs and carbon emission avoidance by 2020 with the exception of solar power and carbon dioxide sequestration. The global electricity industry has potential to reduce its carbon emissions by over 15% by 2020 together with cost saving benefits compared with existing generation. r 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-term strategies for mitigating global warming

This special issue reviews technological options for mitigating carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The options analyzed include efficiency improvements, renewable energies, clean fossil and zero-carbon energy technologies, carbon sequestration and disposal, enhancement of natural carbon sinks (halting deforestation, afforestation, and other sink enhancement options), and geo-engineering measures to compensate for increases in CO2 concentrations. Reduction potentials, costs, and the relative contribution of individual options, as well as their limiting factors and possible timing of introduction and diffusion, are discussed. The study concludes with a discussion of methodological issues and of trade-offs and constraints for implementation strategies to mitigate anthropogenic sources of change in the global carbon cycle.

Hydrogen technologies and the technology learning curve

On their bumpy road to commercialization, hydrogen production, delivery and conversion technologies not only require dedicated research, development and demonstration efforts but also protected niche markets and early adopters. While niche markets utilize the unique technological properties of hydrogen, adopters exhibit a willingness to pay a premium for hydrogen fueled energy services. The concept of the technology learning curve is applied to estimate the capital requirements associated with the commercialization process of several hydrogen technologies.

Emissions Scenarios: A Final Response

This note is a final response to the debate raised by Mr. Castles and Mr. Henderson (for brevity, we refer here to the two authors simply as C&H) in this Journal (vol 14, no 2&3, and no 4) on the issue of economic growth in developing countries in some of the emissions scenarios published in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (Nakicenovic et al., 2000). We first outline areas of agreement and then the remaining areas of disagreement. Two important areas of agreement have emerged from the debate according to our view. First, both parties agree that scenarios assuming a conditional convergence in income levels, i.e., a higher growth in per capita income in poorer countries when compared to countries with higher levels of affluence, are both “plausible and well attested in economic history” (C&H, p. 424). Thus, the fundamental, structural characteristic of some of the SRES scenarios contested by C&H are not challenged per se, but rather how fast such trends could unfold in the future. Second, there is agreement on the value of considering purchasing power parities (PPP) in the international comparison of income levels and the need for further research to improve on the paucity of reliable PPP estimates for developing countries within the International Comparisons Project (ICP) (C&H, p. 432). We appreciate that C&H have now acknowledged that PPPs were considered in developing the SRES scenarios and that they are reported in the data appendix of the report (C&H, p. 422–423). Thus, it was not ignorance as suggested by C&H but rather sound empirical and methodological reasons that led the SRES team to use market exchange rates (MER) as the main metric in developing long-term emissions scenarios. This is in agreement with the underlying scenario literature. However, we do agree with C&H on the value of considering PPP as a complementary metric, and have indeed reported corresponding PPP scenarios in SRES. We disagree with C&H that PPP ought to be used as the sole measure in developing long-term emissions scenarios. This leads us to the remaining areas of disagreement. (1) An important area of disagreement is that emissions do not depend on the metric used to measure economic activities. Evidently, historical emissions do not change as a function of whether historical development is measured in PPP or MER and both measures can be used interchangeably given appropriate model calibrations are deployed to assess the resulting emissions. More importantly, future emissions depend first of all on the physical characteristics of the energy system, land use and other human activities that need to be represented in models to calculate future emissions of greenhouse gases. These physical model representations are unaffected by the choice of PPP or MER for measuring economic growth. This fact explains why many of the emissions scenarios in the literature do not include economic development paths but rather determine emissions from human activities, such as energy and food services. We have addressed this argument extensively in the earlier issue of this Journal (vol 14, no 2&3). (2) There also remains an important disagreement on the issue of using market exchange rates (MER) GDP in developing emission scenarios. C&H hold the extreme view that MER – a directly observable economic variable, as opposed to PPP, which is an elaborate statistical construct – should not be used at all in economic comparisons and in developing scenarios of GDP growth. We reiterate that there are good theoretical, methodological, and empirical reasons for using MER. Contrary to their claim of “unsound” practices, the SRES scenarios are consistent with the underlying literature, available methodologies, and existing practices of economic growth projections of leading international (e.g., the World Bank) and national institutions (e.g., the US DOE Energy Information Administration). (3) A final area of disagreement is whether the C&H criticism is significant or a “red herring”. C&H (p. 428–429) claim that by lowering the economic growth rates for developing countries in the lowest SRES emission-scenarios, one should obtain even lower future emissions. Thus, they claim that the SRES scenarios have failed to represent the lower bound of uncertainty of future emission levels. Here C&H display either a misunderstanding or misrepresentation of economic activity as the sole, independent driver of future emissions. Higher economic growth generally results in higher R&D, more rapid capital turnover, more energy efficiency and higher preferences for pollution controls, all of which tend to reduce GHG emissions. Depending on how these are modeled, lower GDP growth may actually result in higher GHG emissions, and may not, as C&H contend, significantly lower the SRES emissions in the absence of climate policies. We disagree that lower economic development would necessarily result in lower emissions. We conclude our response with some suggestions for improved clarity in the debate and the need to quantify differences in opinion through alternative scenarios published in the peer-reviewed literature.

Energy Resources and Conversion Technologies for the 21st Century

A variety of energy sources will compete to provide the energy services that humans will require over the next 100 years. The balance of these sources will depend upon the availability of fossil fuels and the development of new technologies including renewable energy technologies, and will be one of the keys in projecting greenhouse gas emissions. There is uncertainty about each of the energy sources. With oil, for example, there are two alternate views of future reserves, one that reserves are geologically limited and that supplies will decline within a decade or two, the other that there are enormous quantities of hydrocarbon in the earth’s crust and that reserves are a function of developing technology and price. With solar voltaics, as a second example, there is optimism that the technology will become increasingly competitive, but there is uncertainty about the rate at which costs can come down and about ultimate cost levels. This paper reviews the reserves of fossil fuels and the prospects for nuclear power and the renewables. It also reviews the main energy conversion technologies that are available now or are expected to become increasingly available through time. However, it should be noted that, over a time horizon of 100 years, there may be quite radical changes in both production and conversion technologies that cannot be predicted and it is quite possible for some as yet unheard of technology to be developed and to transform the markets. The paper has been written to aid the development of new scenarios for the emission of greenhouse gases for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Energy Resources and Potentials

Executive Summary An energy resource is the first step in the chain that supplies energy services (for a definition of energy services, see Chapter 1). Energy services are largely ignorant of the particular resource that supplies them; however, often the infrastructures, technologies, and fuels along the delivery chain are highly dependent on a particular type of resource. The availability and costs of bringing energy resources to the market place are key determinants to affordable and accessible energy services. Energy resources pose no inherent limitation to meeting the rapidly growing global energy demand as long as adequate upstream investment is forthcoming – for exhaustible resources in exploration, production technology, and capacity (mining and field development) and, by analogy, for renewables in conversion technologies. Hydrocarbons and Nuclear Occurrences of hydrocarbons and fissile materials in the Earths crust are plentiful – yet they are finite. The extent of the ultimately recoverable oil, natural gas, coal, or uranium is the subject of numerous reviews, yet still the range of values in the literature is large (Table 7.1). For example, the range for conventional oil is between 4900 exajoules (EJ) for reserves to 13,700 EJ (reserves plus resources) – a range that sustains continued debate and controversy. The large range is the result of varying boundaries of what is included in the analysis of a finite stock of an exhaustible resource, e.g., conventional oil only or conventional oil plus unconventional occurrences, such as oil shale, tar sands, and extra-heavy oils.

Hydrogen from remote excess hydroelectricity. Part II: Hydrogen peroxide or biomethanol

Abstract This paper examines synergies, opportunities and barriers associated with electrolytic hydrogen production from excess hydroelectricity in remote areas. The work is based on a case study that examined the techno-economic feasibility of a new hydrogen-based industry using surplus/off-peak generating capacity of the Taltson Dam and Generating Station in Fort Smith, Northwest Territories, Canada. A first study evaluated the amount and cost of hydrogen that could be produced from the excess capacity. This study investigates two hydrogen utilization scenarios: hydrogen as a chemical feedstock for the production of hydrogen peroxide, and methanol production from biomass, oxygen and hydrogen. Hydrogen peroxide production represents the most promising and attractive hydrogen utilization option.

Fuel cell locomotives in Canada

Abstract Some railways and locomotive manufacturers have examined the prospect of deploying fuel cell locomotives over the next 15–30 years. This paper, growing out of such a study for Canadian National Rail, emphasizes tonnage trains, so important to Western Canadas economy. The paper is founded upon the patterns in railway technological evolution set against the backdrop of world technological evolution. It reviews a matrix of technological pathways including: H2 sources; onboard storage; range; duty cycles; and new train technologies like separate cabs and “smart trains.” As to externalities to technological development, we only considered the prospect of legislation requiring that anthropogenic CO2 emissions be incorporated in life-cycle costing. Today, H2 fuel cell locomotives miss feasibility by about one order of magnitude. If the capital cost and performance targets for fuel cells and ancillary technologies are met, H2 fuel cell locomotives could break even with improved diesel locomotives in about 15 years. If the CO2 externality is legislated into life-cycle costing, as is now being considered by several European countries, H2 fuel cell locomotives may become the preferred option for rail motive power in North America.

Hydrogen-based industry from remote excess hydroelectricity

Abstract This paper examines synergies, opportunities and barriers associated with hydrogen and excess hydroelectricity in remote areas. The work is based on a case study that examined the techno-economic feasibility of a new hydrogen-based industry using surplus/off-peak generating capacity of the Taltson Dam and Generating Station in the Northwest Territories, Canada. After evaluating the amount and cost of hydrogen that could be produced from the excess capacity, the study investigates three hydrogen utilization scenarios: (1) merchant liquid or compressed hydrogen, (2) hydrogen as a chemical feedstock for the production of hydrogen peroxide, (3) methanol production from biomass, oxygen and hydrogen. Hydrogen peroxide production is the most promising and attractive strategy in the Fort Smith context. The study also illustrates patterns that recur in isolated sites throughout the world.

The IIASA Set of Energy Models: its Design and Application

The set of energy models used in the Energy Systems Program at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) is described. This set of models – designed for studying the long-term, dynamic, and regional/global aspects of large-scale energy systems – serves as a means of synthesis for the energy studies at IIASA, in developing energy strategies and in evaluating their economic and environmental impacts. The critical question considered in the modeling is whether economies can afford the requisite expenditures of time and capital to achieve alternative energy strategies during the long-term transition to sustainable energy systems. The several individual models and their interrelationships were developed with these considerations in mind.