Hans J. Pasman

A review of the past, present and future of the European loss prevention and safety promotion in the process industries

Part 1 Volume I: theme 1 - safety, management systems, human reliability - process safety of polymer resin manufacturing - a 20-year perspective, A.S. Balchan et al control system and emergency plan in petrochemical plant, Y. Uehara using a task inventory to develop a more effective incident reporting system, A.J. Brazier and J.M. Black about handling and storage of liquefied gases and volatile liquids safety aspects, F. Degreef and A. Maes theme 2 - hazards research - improved safety of chemical processes by on-line supervision using advanced software tools, L. Hub safety of chlorination reactions, J.L. Gustin and A. Fines validation of mathematical models using wind-tunnel data sets for dense gas dispersion in the presence of obstacles, J. Havens et al the effect of obstacles on dense gas clouds, N.J. Duijm et al theme 3 - methods for safe design, prevention and protection - the safe handling of exothermic reactions and the safe discharge from pressure-relief devices, S. Dress theoretical and experimental investigation of the processes during reactor top venting of a thermal runaway reaction, G. Wehmeier et al the influence of non-equilibrium vapour generation on transient level swell during pressure relief of liquefied gases, B. Boesmans and J. Berghmans design of centrifugal separators for emergency vent line systems, J. Schmidt et al theme 4 - risk assessment, including consequence models - hazard identification and evaluation at plant level, J. Suokas computer-aided HAZOP with knowledge-based identification of hazardous event claims, P. Heino et al process safety artificial intelligence system, J.W. Sanders the representation and propagation of parametric uncertainties in consequence models for quantified risk assessment, J. Quelch and I.T. Cameron. Part 2 volume II. theme 1 - safety, management systems, human reliability - the AVRIM safety inspection method, J.I.H. Oh internal control system at three Finnish explosives factories, J. Karhulahti toxic and inflammable/explosive chemicals - a Swedish manual for risk assessment, R. Forsen the role of predictive maintenance in work accident prevention, I. Cheema theme 2 - hazards research - runaway reaction hazard assessment based on the recognition of dangerous process situations or process deviations choice of prevention and mitigation measures, J.L. Gustin further development of the unified dispersion model, J. Cook and J.L. Woodward application of the one-dimensional model UPMFIRE to calculate jet fire characteristics and its interaction with obstacles, A. Crespo et al experimental research of heavy gas dispersion mechanism and creation of advanced tool for vapor cloud dispersion modelling, O.V. Dobrocheev et al theme 3 - methods for safe design, prevention and protection - safety valve reliability, A.B. Smith DACALS - a simple verified VCE model, F.K. Crawley et al. (Part contents).

A scheme for the classification of explosions in the chemical process industry.

All process industry accidents fall under three broad categories-fire, explosion, and toxic release. Of these fire is the most common, followed by explosions. Within these broad categories occur a large number of sub-categories, each depicting a specific sub-type of a fire/explosion/toxic release. But whereas clear and self-consistent sub-classifications exist for fires and toxic releases, the situation is not as clear vis a vis explosions. In this paper the inconsistencies and/or shortcomings associated with the classification of different types of explosions, which are seen even in otherwise highly authentic and useful reference books on process safety, are reviewed. In its context a new classification is attempted which may, hopefully, provide a frame-of-reference for the future.

The relation of cool flames and auto-ignition phenomena to process safety at elevated pressure and temperature

The cool-flame phenomenon can occur in fuel-oxygen (air) mixtures within the flammable range and outside the flammable range, at fuel-rich compositions, at temperatures below the auto-ignition temperature (AIT). It is caused by chemical reactions occurring spontaneously at relatively low temperatures and is favoured by elevated pressure. The hazards that cool flames generate are described. These vary from spoiling a product specification through contamination and explosive decomposition of condensed peroxides to the appearance of unexpected normal (hot) flame (two-stage ignition).

A holistic approach to control process safety risks: Possible ways forward

Pursuing process safety in a world of continuously increasing requirements is not a simple matter. Keeping balance between producing quality and volume under budget constraints while maintaining an adequate safety level proves time and time again a difficult task given that evidently major accidents cannot be avoided. Lack of resilience from an organizational point of view to absorb unwanted and unforeseen disturbances has in recent years been put forward as a major cause, while organizational erosive drift is shown to be responsible for complacency and degradation of safety attitude. A systems approach to safety provides a new paradigm with the promise of new comprehensive tools. At the same time, one realizes that risk assessment will fall short of identifying and quantifying all possible scenarios. First, human error is in most assessments not included. It is even argued that determining human failure probability by decomposing it to basic elements of error is not possible. Second, the crux of the systemic approach is that safety is an emergent property, which means the same holds for the technological aspect: risk is not fully predictable from failure of components. By surveying and applying recent literature, besides analysing, this paper proposes a way forward by considering resilience of a socio-technical system both from an organizational and a technical side. The latter will for a large part be determined by the plant design. Sufficient redundancy and reserve shall be kept to preserve sufficient resilience, but the question that rises is how. Available methods are risk assessment and process simulation. It is helpful that the relation between risk and resilience analysis has been recently defined. Also, in a preliminary study the elements of resilience of a process have become listed. In the latter, receiving and interpreting weak signals to boost situational awareness plays an important role. To maintain alertness on the functioning of a safety management system, the process industry is monitoring safety performance indicators. The critical intensity level upon which management must be alarmed is less simple. Risk assessment may be improved, made dynamic, and be a tool of process control by taking account of short-term risk fluctuations based on sensor signals and the influence of human factors with its long-term changes via indicators. Bayesian network can provide the infrastructure. The paper will describe various complexities when applying a holistic control of safety to a process plant in general, and it will more specifically focus on safeguarding measures such as barriers and other controls with some examples.

Risk informed resource allocation policy : safety can save costs

During economic doldrums, decision making on investments for safety is even more difficult than it already is when funds are abundant. This paper attempts to offer some guidance. After stating the present challenge to prevention of losses in the process industries, the systematic approach of quantified risk assessment is briefly reviewed and improvements in the methodology are mentioned. In addition, attention is given to the use of a risk matrix to survey a plant and to derive a plan of action. Subsequently, the reduction of risk is reviewed. Measures for prevention, protection, and mitigation are discussed. The organization of safety has become at least as important as technical safety of equipment and standards. It is reflected in the introduction of a safety management system. Furthermore, the design process in a pro-active approach is described and the concept of inherent safety is briefly addressed. The concept of Layer of Protection Analysis is explained and also the reason why it is relevant to provide a cost-benefit analysis. Finally, after comments regarding the cost of accidents, the basics of costing and profitability are summarized and a way is suggested to apply this approach to risk-reducing measures. An example is provided on how a selection can be made from a number of alternatives.

Resilience of Cities to Terrorist and other Threats

Preface. I. Nature And Effects of Possible Threat. 1. Threats from terrorist and criminal activity and risk of dangerous accidents - resistance and vulnerability of the urban environment and ways of mitigation B. Janzon, R. Forsen.- 2. Risk evaluation of terrorist attacks against chemical facilities and transport systems in urban areas G. Maschio, M.F. Milazzo.- 3. Microbial agents and activities to interfere with groundwater quality Z. Filip, K. Demnerova.- 4. Preliminary results of a risk assessment study for uranium contamination in central Portugal M.J. Batista, L. P. Martins.- II. Fire And Collapse Risks Of Urban Structures. 1. Questions on the WTC investigation J.G. Quintiere.- 2. The pentagon building performance in the 9/11 crash P.F. Mlakar et al.- 3 . An assessment of a fire risk for multifuel car refueling stations Yu.N. Shebeko et al.- 4. Quantitative risk assessment of aircraft impact on a high-rise building and collapse V.A. Panteleev.- III. Material Properties, Structural Design And Testing. 1. Enhancing impact and blast resistance of concrete with fiber reinforcement N. Banthia.- 2. Enhancing resilience of urban structures to withstand fire hazard V.K.R. Kodur.- 3. Concrete structures under blast loading dynamic response, damage, and residual strength J. Weerheijm et al.- 4. Engineering method for prompt assessment of structural resistance against combined hazard effects V.M. Roytman, I.E. Lukashevich.- IV. Future Strategies. 1. A multihazard approach to insure resilient urban structures T. Krauthammer, J.W. Tedesco.- 2. The role of spatial planning in strengthening urban resilience M. Fleischhauer.- V. Warning Systems. 1. Risk, reliability, uncertainties: role and strategies for the structural health monitoring A. De Stefano, E. Matta.- 2. Distributed optical fiber systems for structural health monitoring Y.N. Kuichin, O.B. Vitrik.- VI Emergency Response Planning. 1. How to plan for emergency and disasterresponse operations in view of structural risk reduction P. Van Der Torn, H.I. Pasman.- 2. Is it possible to use cfd modelling for emergency preparedness and response? M. Kisa, L. Jelemensky.- 3. Medical countermeasures following terrorism cbnre attack in urban environment J. Galatas.- 4. Laws of motion of pedestrian flow B basics for evacuation modeling and management V.V. Kholshevnikov, D.A. Samoshin.- 5. Spatial data infrastructure and geovisualization in emergency management K. Charvat et al.- 6. Using virtual environment systems during the emergency prevention, preparedness, response and recovery phases D.A. Baigozin et al.- 7. The role of simulation exercises in the assessment of robustness and resilience of private or public organizations J.-L. Wybo.- 8. Conclusions with respect to research demands H.J. Pasman, I.A. Kirillov.- Index. List of contributors.

Optimal Integration of Safety in complex system design using the Safety Modelling Language

Safety places a huge burden on operating complex technology. Complex technology may have significant adverse societal effects. This includes catastrophic accidents, acute and chronic occupational risks, and environmental impact. Industry must mitigate these risks until acceptable by society. There are many well known methods to achieve this, and the current level of industrial safety is very high.

How to Plan for Emergency and Disaster Response Operations in View of Structural Risk Reduction

Increase of economic activity, population density, choke points by multiple use of space, traffic nodes (mega-storey) high-rises etc. make our society more vulnerable. At the same time, there is a trend of increase in safety standard with political consequences. A disaster plan shall be ready and the mayor of a city is held responsible. It calls for a new multidisciplinary approach of emergency and disaster response planning coping with a wide variety of threats. It starts with the dilemma, in particular for political leadership, of where to draw the line of ‘how safe is safe enough.’ This depends on ambition of governance, risk profile of the region, policy of what shall be the capacity of emergency and disaster response forces versus the industry effort in protection and that of the public itself. Land use planning and licensing of industrial and building activity are keys for timely preparation. Risk analysis is used for years as a basis for decision making despite the uncertainty in underlying models. For the new task, however, not only space but also explicit time resolved scenario analysis has to be introduced since time is in response effectiveness a crucial parameter. The paper will describe a possible way ahead to help stakeholders to reach their goal, and the various tools, models and data needed. In the complexity of modern urban area and associated organizational structure scenario analysis once fully developed can become a major tool for improving resilience.

Cost-effective fire protection of chemical plants against domino effects

The propagation of fire-induced domino effects in chemical plants largely depends on the primary fire scenario, on separation distances between the units, and on the presence of fire protection barriers. Passive and active safety barriers are widely employed to prevent or delay the initiation or propagation of domino effects. In the present study, a methodology has been developed based on Bayesian network to account for the impact of such safety barriers on the propagation of fire domino scenarios. The Bayesian network has been extended to a limited memory influence diagram in order to identify a cost-effective allocation of additional safety barriers to further mitigate the fire propagation. The application of the methodology has been demonstrated using a chemical tank farm. The results are in good agreement with the results of a graph theoretic approach developed in a previous study, proving the reliability of the developed methodology in cost-effective protection of process plants.

Process Safety Performance Indicators

Abstract For over 50 years to measure safety performance the Lost Time Incident Rate, LTIR was used. Fortunately, over the years the learning attitude towards accidents changed from a retrospective to a pro-active one. In the 90-s the safety management system was introduced. No management though, without the Deming cycle of Plan, Do, Check, Act, and checking, means the need of indicators. Existing LTIR-values were used not realizing these refl ect personal rather than process safety. In 2005 after the BP Texas City refi nery vapor cloud explosion, awareness of the difference broke through and Process Safety Leading and Lagging Metrics were formulated. In January 2012 an international conference was held in Brussels organized by EPSC and CEFIC. Results will be summarized. The paper will explain briefl y, where we are now, and what still is ahead.