Hans-Jürgen Panitz

Dynamical downscaling of CMIP5 global circulation models over CORDEX-Africa with COSMO-CLM: evaluation over the present climate and analysis of the added value

In this work we present the results of the application of the consortium for small-scale modeling (COSMO) regional climate model (COSMO-CLM, hereafter, CCLM) over Africa in the context of the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment. An ensemble of climate change projections has been created by downscaling the simulations of four global climate models (GCM), namely: MPI-ESM-LR, HadGEM2-ES, CNRM-CM5, and EC-Earth. Here we compare the results of CCLM to those of the driving GCMs over the present climate, in order to investigate whether RCMs are effectively able to add value, at regional scale, to the performances of GCMs. It is found that, in general, the geographical distribution of mean sea level pressure, surface temperature and seasonal precipitation is strongly affected by the boundary conditions (i.e. driving GCMs), and seasonal statistics are not always improved by the downscaling. However, CCLM is generally able to better represent the annual cycle of precipitation, in particular over Southern Africa and the West Africa monsoon (WAM) area. By performing a singular spectrum analysis it is found that CCLM is able to reproduce satisfactorily the annual and sub-annual principal components of the precipitation time series over the Guinea Gulf, whereas the GCMs are in general not able to simulate the bimodal distribution due to the passage of the WAM and show a unimodal precipitation annual cycle. Furthermore, it is shown that CCLM is able to better reproduce the probability distribution function of precipitation and some impact-relevant indices such as the number of consecutive wet and dry days, and the frequency of heavy rain events.

COSMO-CLM (CCLM) climate simulations over CORDEX-Africa domain: analysis of the ERA-Interim driven simulations at 0.44° and 0.22° resolution

We present the results of the application of the COSMO-CLM Regional Climate Model (CCLM) over the CORDEX-Africa domain. Two simulations were performed driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis (1989–2008): the first one with the standard CORDEX spatial resolution (0.44°), and the second one with an unprecedented high resolution (0.22°). Low-level circulation and its vertical structure, the geographical and temporal evolution of temperature and precipitation are critically evaluated, together with the radiation budget and surface energy fluxes. CCLM is generally able to reproduce the overall features of the African climate, although some deficiencies are evident. Flow circulation is generally well simulated, but an excessive pressure gradient is present between the Gulf of Guinea and the Sahara, related to a marked warm bias over the Sahara and a cold bias over southern Sahel. CCLM underestimates the rainfall peak in the regions affected by the passage of the monsoon. This dry bias may be a consequence of two factors, the misplacement of the monsoon centre and the underestimation of its intensity. The former is related to the northern shift of the West African Heat Low. On the other hand, the underestimation of precipitation intensity may be related to the underestimation of the surface short-wave radiation and latent heat flux. The increase of the model resolution does not bring evident improvements to the results for monthly means statistics. As a result, it appears that 0.44° is a suitable compromise between model performances and computational constrains.

Assessment of the Performance of CORDEX Regional Climate Models in Simulating East African Rainfall

AbstractThis study evaluates the ability of 10 regional climate models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) in simulating the characteristics of rainfall patterns over eastern Africa. The seasonal climatology, annual rainfall cycles, and interannual variability of RCM output have been assessed over three homogeneous subregions against a number of observational datasets. The ability of the RCMs in simulating large-scale global climate forcing signals is further assessed by compositing the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events. It is found that most RCMs reasonably simulate the main features of the rainfall climatology over the three subregions and also reproduce the majority of the documented regional responses to ENSO and IOD forcings. At the same time the analysis shows significant biases in individual models depending on subregion and season; however, the ensemble mean has better agreement with observation than individual models....

Evaluation of the precipitation for South-western Germany from high resolution simulations with regional climate models

Precipitation data from long-term high-resolution simulations with two regional climate models (CLM and REMO) are evaluated using a climatology based on observations for south-western Germany. Both models are driven by a present day climate forcing scenario from the global climate model ECHAM5. The climatological evaluation shows a strong seasonal dependence of the model deficiencies. In spring and summer there are relatively small differences between simulation results and observations. But during winter both the regional models and ECHAM5 strongly overestimate the precipitation. The frequency distributions of the model results agree well with observed data. An overestimation of the precipitation at the upwind sides of mountainous areas occurs in the regional simulations. We found that the coupling of the regional models to the driving model is stronger in winter than in summer. Therefore, in winter the large scale model have a larger impact on the performance of the regional simulations. During summer the benefit of regional climate simulations is higher.

The Impact of the African Great Lakes on the Regional Climate

AbstractAlthough the African Great Lakes are important regulators for the East African climate, their influence on atmospheric dynamics and the regional hydrological cycle remains poorly understood. This study aims to assess this impact by comparing a regional climate model simulation that resolves individual lakes and explicitly computes lake temperatures to a simulation without lakes. The Consortium for Small-Scale Modelling model in climate mode (COSMO-CLM) coupled to the Freshwater Lake model (FLake) and Community Land Model (CLM) is used to dynamically downscale a simulation from the African Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX-Africa) to 7-km grid spacing for the period of 1999–2008. Evaluation of the model reveals good performance compared to both in situ and satellite observations, especially for spatiotemporal variability of lake surface temperatures (0.68-K bias), and precipitation (−116 mm yr−1 or 8% bias). Model integrations indicate that the four major African Great Lakes almos...

Daily characteristics of West African summer monsoon precipitation in CORDEX simulations

We analyze and intercompare the performance of a set of ten regional climate models (RCMs) along with the ensemble mean of their statistics in simulating daily precipitation characteristics during the West African monsoon (WAM) period (June–July–August–September). The experiments are conducted within the framework of the COordinated Regional Downscaling Experiments for the African domain. We find that the RCMs exhibit substantial differences that are associated with a wide range of estimates of higher-order statistics, such as intensity, frequency, and daily extremes mostly driven by the convective scheme employed. For instance, a number of the RCMs simulate a similar number of wet days compared to observations but greater rainfall intensity, especially in oceanic regions adjacent to the Guinea Highlands because of a larger number of heavy precipitation events. Other models exhibit a higher wet-day frequency but much lower rainfall intensity over West Africa due to the occurrence of less frequent heavy rainfall events. This indicates the existence of large uncertainties related to the simulation of daily rainfall characteristics by the RCMs. The ensemble mean of the indices substantially improves the RCMs’ simulated frequency and intensity of precipitation events, moderately outperforms that of the 95th percentile, and provides mixed benefits for the dry and wet spells. Although the ensemble mean improved results cannot be generalized, such an approach produces encouraging results and can help, to some extent, to improve the robustness of the response of the WAM daily precipitation to the anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming.

High-resolution sensitivity studies with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM

This paper presents sensitivity studies with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for southwest Germany and the period from 1991 to 2000. The influence of horizontal resolution (7 km and 14 km) and driving data (ERA-40 and NCEP reanalysis data) on simulation results are assessed and a suitable simulation setup for high-resolution simulations is derived by using varying domain sizes, soil moisture initialization, physical parameterizations and numerical schemes. The use of ERA-40 reanalyses as driving data yields better overall results for temperature and precipitation than the use of NCEP reanalysis data. Increase in the horizontal resolution leads to better simulation results compared to observations. The choice of driving data has a larger impact on simulation results than changing resolutions, physical parameterizations, numerical schemes or initial soil water contents for simulations of this area.

Comparison of the DRAIS and EURAD model simulations of air pollution in a mesoscale area

SummaryIn this paper the results of simulations of air pollution carried out with the mesoscale model system KAMM/DRAIS are presented. They are compared with results of the European scale model EURAD which have been provided by the EURAD-Group, Cologne. With this comparison it is intended to analyse to what extent better resolution of topography and emission data used by the mesoscale model effects the model results. The simulations have been carried out for July 15, 1986, a typical summer day. The model domain contains south-west Germany and part of Alsace with a resolution of 5 km. The emissions for this resolution have been derived by a combination of the coarse EURAD emission data with the data of the TULLA experiment which are available on a much finer grid. The initial and boundary conditions for the species concentrations are determined from the results of the EURAD model. This coupling introduces the long range transport of pollutants into the mesoscale simulation.The meteorological and concentration data of the EURAD model are compared with the corresponding DRAIS model results. The mesoscale flow field is characterized by the channeling along the Upper Rhine Valley, which is not resolved in the EURAD model. The concentration distributions of both models are similar during midday, because of the strong vertical mixing. In the night and especially, in the morning and evening hours the spatial distribution is much better represented by the DRAIS model results. The better resolution of the emissions and the topography in the DRAIS model compared with the EURAD model (80 km grid size) becomes really noticeable. The difference of the ozone concentrations between cities and the, surrounding areas and between the Rhine Valley and the limiting mountains are in the order of 30 ppb as compared to a few ppb in the EURAD simulation. In the morning NO concentrations of about 200 ppb are simulated in the area between Heilbronn and Stuttgart. The EURAD model provides only about 5 ppb. Comparisons with measurements show that the DRAIS simulations are more realistic than the EURAD model results. The features mentioned are also found in an evaluation of the concentration variations in areas corresponding to a grid cell of the EURAD model. Two completely different areas are selected to demonstrate the possible range of the concentration variation. In the area around the City of Stuttgart the ozone concentration in the morning and the evening varies between zero ppb and 50 ppb, approximately. The mean value is nearly the same in both simulations.

Determination of precipitation return values in complex terrain and their evaluation.

To determine return values at various return periods for extreme daily precipitation events over complex orography, an appropriate threshold value and distribution function are required. The return values are calculated using the peak-over-threshold approach in which only a reduced sample of precipitation events exceeding a predefined threshold is analyzed. To fit the distribution function to the sample, the L-moment method is used. It is found that the deviation between the fitted return values and the plotting positions of the ranked precipitation events is smaller for the kappa distribution than for the generalized Pareto distribution. As a second focus, the ability of regional climate models to realistically simulate extreme daily precipitation events is assessed. For this purpose the return values are derived using precipitation events exceeding the 90th percentile of the precipitation time series and a fit of a kappa distribution. The results of climate simulations with two different regional climate models are analyzed for the 30-yr period 1971–2000: the so-called consortium runs performed with the climate version of the Lokal Modell (referred to as the CLM-CR) at 18-km resolution and the Regional Model (REMO)–Umweltbundesamt (UBA) simulations at 10-km resolution. It was found that generally the return values are overestimated by both models. Averaged across the region the overestimation is higher for REMO–UBA compared to CLM-CR.

Modeling haboob dust storms in large-scale weather and climate models

Recent eld campaigns have shown that haboob dust storms, formed by convective cold pool outflows, contribute a significant fraction of dust uplift over the Sahara and Sahel in summer. However, in-situ observations are sparse and haboobs are frequently concealed by clouds in satellite imagery. Furthermore, most large-scale weather and climate models lack haboobs, because they do not explicitly represent convection. Here a one-year long model run with explicit representation of convection delivers the first full seasonal cycle of haboobs over northern Africa. Using conservative estimates, the model suggests that haboobs contribute one fifth of the annual dust-generating winds over northern Africa, one fourth between May and October, and one third over the western Sahel during this season. A simple parameterization of haboobs has recently been developed for models with parameterized convection, based on the downdraft mass flux of convection schemes. It is applied here to two model runs with different horizontal resolutions, and assessed against the explicit run. The parameterization succeeds in capturing the geographical distribution of haboobs and their seasonal cycle over the Sahara and Sahel. It can be tuned to the different horizontal resolutions, and different formulations are discussed with respect to the frequency of extreme events. The results show that the parameterization is reliable and may solve a major and long-standing issue in simulating dust storms in large-scale weather and climate models.