Hans-Peter Blossfeld

Human Capital Investments or Norms of Role Transition? How Women's Schooling and Career Affect the Process of Family Formation

Proponents of the new home economics hypothesize that womens growing economic independence largely accounts for the rise in delayed marriage and motherhood in industrialized societies. This article assesses this hypothesis for the Federal Republic of Gernamy by estimating the dynamic effects of womens educational and career investments on the timing of family events. Eventhistory analysis shows that the delaying effect on the timing of the first marriage across cohorts does not result from an increase in the quality of womens human capital investiments as posited by the new home economics. Rather, womens extended participation in schooling delays their transition to adulthood, an effect aligned with normative expectations that young women in school are not ready for marriage and motherhood. Increasing career resources, however, do lead women to postpone or avoid having children.

Event history analysis : statistical theory and application in the social sciences

Contents: Foreword. Aim and Structure of the Book. Domains and Rationale for the Application of Event History Analysis. The Statistical Theory of Event History Analysis. Data Organization and Descriptive Methods. Semi-Parametric Regression Models: The Cox Proportional Hazards Model. Parametric Regression Models. Appendices: List of Variable Names Used in Examples. Listing of the FORTRAN Program PR3FUN Written by Trond Petersen. Listing of the FORTRAN Program for Episode Splitting Given Discrete Time-Dependent Covariates. Listing of the FORTRAN Program for Episode Splitting Given Continuous Time-Dependent Covariates. Listing of the GLIM Macros to Estimate the Weibull and Log-Logistic Models of Roger and Peacock.

Labor-Market Entry and the Sexual Segregation of Careers in the Federal Republic of Germany

This article traces the emergence of sex-specific structures over the life course, compares these patterns across cohorts, and discovers the importance of entry into the labor market for the subsequent occupational careers of men and women. New life-history data from the Federal Republic of Germany show that there is an impressive equalization of educational opportunities between men and women across cohorts. Despite this covergence in educational levels of men and women, sex-specific differences in the field of vocational training continue to be a major component within the process of sex segregation, both over the life course and across cohorts, in West Germany. At entry into the occupational system an increasing tendency to sex-specific occupational segregation across cohorts is observable. This does not imply that womens occupational chances have become worse across cohorts but the opposite. Across the cohorts, many of the new skilled occupations created by a changing economic structure and the expanding welfare state were filled by young women.

Unobserved heterogeneity in hazard rate models: a test and an illustration from a study of career mobility

This paper proposes a test for neglected heterogeneity in continuous-time hazard rate models that can be done easily using generally available program packages. It is a score test appropriate for cases in which the variance of the heterogeneity is small and it can be applied quite generally, provided that the generalized residuals can be calculated. The test is demonstrated using data on the career trajectories of German males from the German Life History Study.

Using Cox Models to Study Multiepisode Processes

This article shows how Cox models can be used to study multiepisode-multistate processes as well as which computer programs can be used to estimate semiparametric models with multispell data. The application of a multiepisode Cox model is demonstrated using data on career trajectories of German males from the German Life History study.

Survival-und Ereignisanalyse

Mit dem Begriff der „Survival-und Ereignisanalyse“ werden statistische Verfahren zur Untersuchung von Zeitintervallen zwischen aufeinander folgenden Ereignissen oder Zustandswechseln bezeichnet. Die von den Untersuchungseinheiten (z.B. Individuen, Haushalten, Organisationen) eingenommenen Zustande sind dabei abzahlbar (in der Regel handelt es sich um eine relativ begrenzte Anzahl von Zustanden), und die Ereignisse konnen zu beliebigen Zeitpunkten eintreten. Beispiele solcher Prozesse sind die Dauern der Arbeitslosigkeit bis zum Beginn einer neuen Erwerbstatigkeit in der Arbeitsmarktforschung; die Zeit in einer beruflichen Tatigkeit bis zu einem sozialen Aufstieg in der sozialen Mobilitatsforschung; die Dauer bis zu einem Umzug an einen anderen Ort in der Migrationsforschung; die Ehedauern bis zur Scheidung in der demographischen Forschung; die Uberlebenszeiten von Patienten in medizinischen Studien. Die Statistik bietet heute eine grose Zahl von Methoden zur Analyse von Survival-und Ereignisdaten an. Sie reichen von den deskriptiven Verfahren der Survivalanalyse (z. B. Sterbetafel-Methode und Kaplan-Meier-Schatzung), uber das semiparametrische Regressionsmodell von Cox, bis zu den parametrischen Verfahren mit und ohne Zeitabhangigkeiten (z. B. dem Exponential-, Piecewise-Constant-, Gompertz(-Makeham)-, Weibull-oder log-logistischen Modell). In jungster Zeit kommt den Methoden der Ereignisanalyse eine besondere Bedeutung bei der Weiterentwicklung der Kausalanalyse, der Untersuchung von parallelen und interdependenten Prozessen und der Mehrebenenanalyse zu. Diese Aspekte stehen auch im Vordergrund dieses Beitrags.