Harald J. van Heerde

New Empirical Generalizations on the Determinants of Price Elasticity

The importance of pricing decisions for firms has fueled an extensive stream of research on price elasticities. In an influential meta-analytical study, Tellis (1988) summarized price elasticity research findings until 1986. However, empirical generalizations on price elasticity require modifications because of (1) changes in market characteristics (i.e., characteristics of brands, product categories, and economic conditions) and (2) changes in the research methodology used to assess price elasticities. Therefore, the authors present a meta-analysis of price elasticity with new empirical generalizations on its determinants. Across a set of 1851 price elasticities based on 81 studies, the average price elasticity is −2.62. A salient finding is that over the past four decades, sales elasticities have significantly increased in magnitude, whereas share and choice elasticities have remained fairly constant. The authors find that accommodating price endogeneity has a strong (magnitude-increasing) impact on price elasticities. A striking null result is that accounting for heterogeneity does not affect elasticities significantly. The authors also present an analysis that explains the difference between their findings and Telliss findings, and they indicate which new price elasticity studies are most desirable.

What Makes Consumers Willing to Pay a Price Premium for National Brands over Private Labels

The growing sales of private labels (PLs) pose significant challenges for national brands (NBs) around the world. A major question is whether consumers continue to be willing to pay a price premium for NBs over PLs. Using consumer survey data from 22,623 respondents from 23 countries in Asia, Europe, and the Americas across, on average, 63 consumer packaged goods categories per country, this article studies how marketing and manufacturing factors affect the price premium a consumer is willing to pay for an NB over a PL. These effects are mediated by consumer perceptions of the quality of NBs in relation to PLs. Although the results do not bode well for NBs in the sense that willingness to pay decreases as PLs mature, the authors offer several managerial recommendations to counter this trend. In countries in which PLs are more mature, the route to success is to go back to manufacturing basics. In PL development countries, there is a stronger role for marketing to enhance the willingness to pay for NBs.

Is 75% of the Sales Promotion Bump Due to Brand Switching? No, Only 33% Is

Several researchers have decomposed sales promotion elasticities based on household scanner-panel data. A key result is that the majority of the sales promotion elasticity, approximately 74% on average, is attributed to secondary demand effects (brand switching) and the remainder is attributed to primary demand effects (timing acceleration and quantity increases). The authors demonstrate that this result does not imply that if a brand gains 100 units in sales during a promotion, the other brands in the category lose 74 units. The authors offer a complementary decomposition measure based on unit sales. The measure shows the ratio of the current cross-brand unit sales loss to the current own-brand unit sales gain during promotion; the authors report empirical results for this measure. They also derive analytical expressions that transform the elasticity decomposition into a decomposition of unit sales effects. These expressions show the nature of the difference between the two decompositions. To gain insight into the magnitude of the difference, the authors apply these expressions to previously reported elasticity decomposition results and find that approximately 33% of the unit sales increase is attributable to losses incurred by other brands in the same category.

The estimation of pre- and postpromotion dips with store-level scanner data

One of the mysteries of store-level scanner data modeling is the lack of a dip in sales in the weeks following a promotion. Researchers expect to find a postpromotion dip because analyses of household scanner panel data indicate that consumers tend to accelerate their purchases in response to a promotion—that is, they buy earlier and/or purchase larger quantities than they would in the absence of a promotion. Thus, there should also be a pronounced dip in store-level sales in the weeks following a promotion. However, researchers rarely find such dips at either the category or the brand level. Several arguments have been proposed to account for the lack of a postpromotion dip in store-level sales data and to explain why dips may be hidden. Because dips are difficult to detect by traditional models (and by a visual inspection of the data), the authors propose models that can account for a multitude of factors that together cause complex pre- and postpromotion dips. The authors use three alternative distributed lead and lag structures: an Almon model, an unrestricted dynamic effects model, and an exponential decay model. In each model, the authors include four types of price discounts: without any support, with display-only support, with feature-only support, and with feature and display support. The models are calibrated on store-level scanner data for two product categories: tuna and toilet tissue. The authors estimate the dip to be between 4 and 25% of the current sales effect, which is consistent with household-level studies.

The Long-Term Effect of Marketing Strategy on Brand Sales

Few studies have considered the relative role of the integrated marketing mix (advertising, price promotion, product, and place) on the long-term performance of mature brands, instead emphasizing advertising and price promotion. Thus, little guidance is available to firms regarding the relative efficacy of their various marketing expenditures over the long run. To investigate this issue, the authors apply a multivariate dynamic linear transfer function model to five years of advertising and scanner data for 25 product categories and 70 brands in France. The findings indicate that the total (short-term plus long-term) sales elasticity is 1.37 for product and .74 for distribution. Conversely, the total elasticities for advertising and discounting are only .13 and .04, respectively. This result stands in marked contrast to the previous emphasis in the literature on price promotions and advertising. The authors further find that the long-term effects of discounting are one-third the magnitude of the short-term effects. The ratio is reversed from other aspects of the mix (in which long-term effects exceed four times the short-term effects), underscoring the strategic role of these tools in brand sales.

Winners and losers in a major price war

Although retail price wars have received much business press and some research attention, it is unclear how they affect consumer purchase behavior. This article studies an unprecedented price war in Dutch grocery retailing that started in fall 2003, initiated by the market leader to halt its sliding market share. The authors investigate the short- and long-term effects of the price war on store visits, on spending, and on the sensitivity of these decisions to weekly prices and price image. They use a unique data set with consumer hand-scan and perceptual data for a national panel of 1821 households, covering two years before and two years after the price war started. Although the price war initially entailed more shopping around and increased spending, spending per visit ultimately dropped because consumers redistributed their purchases across stores. The price war made consumers more sensitive to weekly prices and price image, which helped both the chain that showed an improvement in price image (the price war initiator) and the chains that already had a favorable price image (hard discounters). The price war initiator managed to halt the slide in its market share, and its stock price improved. The losers were the rival mid-level and high-end chains. Unlike the initiator, their price image did not improve, and they suffered from increased price image sensitivity. The authors provide managerial implications for firms that are (or about to be) involved in a price war.

Rising from the ashes: How brands and categories can overcome product-harm crises

Product-harm crises are omnipresent in todays marketplace. Such crises can cause major revenue and market-share losses, lead to costly product recalls, and destroy carefully nurtured brand equity. Moreover, some of these effects may spill over to nonaffected competitors in the category when they are perceived to be guilty by association. The extant literature lacks generalizable knowledge on the effectiveness of different marketing adjustments that managers often consider to mitigate the consequences of such events. To fill this gap, the authors use large household-scanner panels to analyze 60 fast-moving consumer good product crises that occurred in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands and resulted in the full recall of an entire variety. The authors assess the effects of postcrisis advertising and price adjustments on the change in consumers’ brand share and category purchases. In addition, they consider the extent to which the effects are moderated by two key crisis characteristics: the extent of negative publicity surrounding the event and whether the affected brand had to publicly acknowledge blame. Using the empirical findings, the authors provide context-specific managerial recommendations on how to overcome a product-harm crisis.

Price and Advertising Effectiveness over the Business Cycle

Firms are under increasing pressure to justify their marketing expenditures. This evolution toward greater accountability is reinforced in harsh economic times when marketing budgets are among the first to be reconsidered. To make such decisions, managers must know whether, and to what extent, marketings effectiveness varies with the economic tide; however, surprisingly little research addresses this issue. Therefore, the authors conduct a systematic investigation of the business cycles impact on the effectiveness of two important marketing instruments: price and advertising. To do so, they estimate time-varying short- and long-term advertising and price elasticities for 150 brands across 36 consumer packaged goods categories, using 18 years of monthly U.K. data from 1993 to 2010. The long-term price sensitivity tends to decrease during economic expansions, whereas long-term advertising elasticities increase. During contractions, the long-term own and cross price elasticities increase. Moreover, throughout the observation period, the short-term price elasticity became significantly stronger. Finally, patterns differ across categories and brands, which presents opportunities for firms that know how to ride the economic tide.

Driving online and offline sales : The cross-channel effects of traditional, online display, and paid search advertising

The current marketing environment is characterized by a surge in multichannel shopping and increasing choice of advertising channels. This situation requires firms to understand how advertising in one channel (e.g., online) influences sales in another channel (e.g., offline). This article studies the presence, magnitude, and carryover of these cross-channel effects for online advertising (display and search) and traditional media. The analysis considers how these advertising expenditures translate directly into sales, as well as indirectly through intermediate search advertising metrics—namely, impressions and click-through rate. For a high-end clothing and apparel retailer, the authors find that cross effects exist and are important and that cross-effect elasticities are almost as high as own-effect elasticities. Online display and, in particular, search advertising is more effective than traditional advertising. This result is primarily due to strong cross effects on the offline channel. Return-on-investment calculations suggest that by ignoring these cross effects, firms substantially miscalculate the effectiveness of online advertising. Notably, the authors find that traditional advertising decreases paid search click-through rates, thus reducing the net cross effect of traditional advertising.

Marketing models and the Lucas critique

textabstractThe Lucas critique has been largely ignored in the marketing literature. We present a number of conditions under which the critique is most likely to (also) apply in marketing settings. Next, we provide some perspectives on how to diagnose and accommodate the Lucas critique, and identify various avenues for future research.