Harri Strandman

Sensitivity of managed boreal forests in Finland to climate change, with implications for adaptive management

This study investigated the sensitivity of managed boreal forests to climate change, with consequent needs to adapt the management to climate change. Model simulations representing the Finnish territory between 60 and 70° N showed that climate change may substantially change the dynamics of managed boreal forests in northern Europe. This is especially probable at the northern and southern edges of this forest zone. In the north, forest growth may increase, but the special features of northern forests may be diminished. In the south, climate change may create a suboptimal environment for Norway spruce. Dominance of Scots pine may increase on less fertile sites currently occupied by Norway spruce. Birches may compete with Scots pine even in these sites and the dominance of birches may increase. These changes may reduce the total forest growth locally but, over the whole of Finland, total forest growth may increase by 44%, with an increase of 82% in the potential cutting drain. The choice of appropriate species and reduced rotation length may sustain the productivity of forest land under climate change.

A model for the structural growth of young Scots pine crowns based on light interception by shoots

A model for the structural growth of the crown of a young Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) is described. Each shoot produces new shoots, whose number and length are linearly related to the length of the parent shoot. The length of parent shoots is computed from the amount of direct and diffuse radiation intercepted by the parent shoot during the previous growing season. This procedure utilizes the spatial distribution of shoots (location, azimuth, inclination) produced by the growth process, and the structure of the shoots as determined in terms of the needle density, needle angle and length of needles with no need in advance to specify the statistical distribution of shoots in the crown space. The computations indicate that shoot structure could have only a negligible effect on the total light interception compared to the total needle area and its distribution within the crown. The modelling based on modular growth with a shoot as a basic computational unit seems to have great potential in describing the interaction between the tree crown and light conditions and the structural development of the crown system.

A procedure for generating synthetic weather records in conjunction of climatic scenario for modelling of ecological impacts of changing climate in boreal conditions

Abstract A simulation procedure for the calculation of temperature, cloudiness, radiation, precipitation, air humidity, windiness and atmospheric carbon is presented. The procedure generates the hourly or daily values of the weather factors based on long-term weather statistics. The basic factor behind the weather pattern indicated by different weather factors is air temperature, which modifies the cloudiness produced by a stochastic process in other respects. Consequently, the radiation and precipitation coming onto a site and the air humidity are also modified by temperature. This facilitates the future weather patterns to be calculated on the basis of the temperature increase allowing to introduce the effect of the suggested climatic change also into the other weather factors, assuming that the basic variability of the weather factors remains unchanged. The future windiness is calculated as random process without correlation to other weather factors.

Life cycle assessment tool for estimating net CO2 exchange of forest production

The study describes an integrated impact assessment tool for the net carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange in forest production. The components of the net carbon exchange include the uptake of carbon into biomass, the decomposition of litter and humus, emissions from forest management operations and carbon released from the combustion of biomass and degradation of wood‐based products. The tool enables the allocation of the total carbon emissions to the timber and energy biomass and to the energy produced on the basis of biomass. In example computations, ecosystem model simulations were utilized as an input to the tool. We present results for traditional timber production (pulpwood and saw logs) and integrated timber and bioenergy production (logging residues, stumps and roots) for Norway spruce, in boreal conditions in Finland, with two climate scenarios over one rotation period. The results showed that the magnitude of management related emissions on net carbon exchange was smaller when compared with the total ecosystem fluxes; decomposition being the largest emission contributor. In addition, the effects of management and climate were higher on the decomposition of new humus compared with old humus. The results also showed that probable increased biomass growth, obtained under the changing climate (CC), could not compensate for decomposition and biomass combustion related carbon loss in southern Finland. In our examples, the emissions allocated for the energy from biomass in southern Finland were 172 and 188 kg CO2 MW h−1 in the current climate and in a CC, respectively, and 199 and 157 kg CO2 MW h−1 in northern Finland. This study concludes that the tool is suitable for estimating the net carbon exchange of forest production. The tool also enables the allocation of direct and indirect carbon emissions, related to forest production over its life cycle, in different environmental conditions and for alternative time periods and land uses. Simulations of forest management regimes together with the CC give new insights into ecologically sustainable forest bioenergy and timber production, as well as climate change mitigation options in boreal forests.

Effects of forest management on the carbon dioxide emissions of wood energy in integrated production of timber and energy biomass.

The aim of this work was to study the sensitivity of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from wood energy to different forest management regimes when aiming at an integrated production of timber and energy biomass. For this purpose, the production of timber and energy biomass in Norway spruce [Picea abies (L.) Karst] and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stands was simulated using an ecosystem model (SIMA) on sites of varying fertility under different management regimes, including various thinning and fertilization treatments over a fixed simulation period of 80 years. The simulations included timber (sawlogs, pulp), energy biomass (small‐sized stem wood) and/or logging residues (top part of stem, branches and needles) from first thinning, and logging residues and stumps from final felling for energy production. In this context, a life cycle analysis/emission calculation tool was used to assess the CO2 emissions per unit of energy (kg CO2 MWh−1) which was produced based on the use of wood energy. The energy balance (GJ ha−1) of the supply chain was also calculated. The evaluation of CO2 emissions and energy balance of the supply chain considered the whole forest bioenergy production chain, representing all operations needed to grow and harvest biomass and transport it to a power plant for energy production. Fertilization and high precommercial stand density clearly increased stem wood production (i.e. sawlogs, pulp and small‐sized stem wood), but also the amount of logging residues, stump wood and roots for energy use. Similarly, the lowest CO2 emissions per unit of energy were obtained, regardless of tree species and site fertility, when applying extremely or very dense precommercial stand density, as well as fertilization three times during the rotation. For Norway spruce such management also provided a high energy balance (GJ ha−1). On the other hand, the highest energy balance for Scots pine was obtained concurrently with extremely dense precommercial stands without fertilization on the medium‐fertility site, while on the low‐fertility site fertilization three times during the rotation was needed to attain this balance. Thus, clear differences existed between species and sites. In general, the forest bioenergy supply chain seemed to be effective; i.e. the fossil fuel energy consumption varied between 2.2% and 2.8% of the energy produced based on the forest biomass. To conclude, the primary energy use and CO2 emissions related to the forest operations, including the production and application of fertilizer, were small in relation to the increased potential of energy biomass.

Atmospheric impact of bioenergy based on perennial crop (reed canary grass, Phalaris arundinaceae, L.) cultivation on a drained boreal organic soil

Marginal organic soils, abundant in the boreal region, are being increasingly used for bioenergy crop cultivation. Using long‐term field experimental data on greenhouse gas (GHG) balance from a perennial bioenergy crop [reed canary grass (RCG), Phalaris arundinaceae L.] cultivated on a drained organic soil as an example, we show here for the first time that, with a proper cultivation and land‐use practice, environmentally sound bioenergy production is possible on these problematic soil types. We performed a life cycle assessment (LCA) for RCG on this organic soil. We found that, on an average, this system produces 40% less CO2‐equivalents per MWh of energy in comparison with a conventional energy source such as coal. Climatic conditions regulating the RCG carbon exchange processes have a high impact on the benefits from this bioenergy production system. Under appropriate hydrological conditions, this system can even be carbon‐negative. An LCA sensitivity analysis revealed that net ecosystem CO2 exchange and crop yield are the major LCA components, while non‐CO2 GHG emissions and costs associated with crop production are the minor ones. Net bioenergy GHG emissions resulting from restricted net CO2 uptake and low crop yields, due to climatic and moisture stress during dry years, were comparable with coal emissions. However, net bioenergy emissions during wet years with high net uptake and crop yield were only a third of the coal emissions. As long‐term experimental data on GHG balance of bioenergy production are scarce, scientific data stemming from field experiments are needed in shaping renewable energy source policies.

Impacts of climate change on primary production and carbon sequestration of boreal Norway spruce forests: Finland as a model

The aim of this study was to estimate the potential impacts of climate change on the spatial patterns of primary production and net carbon sequestration in relation to water availability in Norway spruce (Picea abies) dominated forests throughout Finland (N 60°–N 70°). The Finnish climatic scenarios (FINADAPT) based on the A2 emission scenario were used. According to the results, the changing climate increases the ratio of evapotranspiration to precipitation in southern Finland, while it slightly decreases the ratio in northern Finland, with regionally lower and higher soil water content in the south and north respectively. During the early simulation period of 2000–2030, the primary production and net carbon sequestration are higher under the changing climate in southern Finland, due to a moderate increase in temperature and atmospheric CO2. However, further elevated temperature and soil water stress reduces the primary production and net carbon sequestration from the middle period of 2030–2060 to the final period of 2060–2099, especially in the southernmost region. The opposite occurs in northern Finland, where the changing climate increases the primary production and net carbon sequestration over the 100-year simulation period due to higher water availability. The net carbon sequestration is probably further reduced by the stimulated ecosystem respiration (under climate warming) in southern Finland. The higher carbon loss of the ecosystem respiration probably also offset the increased primary production, resulting in the net carbon sequestration being less sensitive to the changing climate in northern Finland. Our findings suggest that future forest management should carefully consider the region-specific conditions of sites and adaptive practices to climate change for maintained or enhanced forest production and carbon sequestration.

Modelling the long-term dynamics of populations and communities of trees in boreal forests based on competition for light and nitrogen

Abstract This paper describes an individual-based and spatially explicit model for computing the long-term succession of a population or community of trees and the turnover of carbon and nitrogen in a forested ecosystem. In the model ecosystem trees are located within a simulated plot in a grid of cells that are sufficiently small to contain not more than one tree. Each tree consists of five mass compartments (stem, branches, leaves/needles, coarse roots and fine roots) and has its own area, varying in time, for the acquisition of nitrogen. Each tree competes with its nearest neighbours for light and nitrogen; i.e. growth depends on the limitations on light or nitrogen. The calculation of biomass production is based on the potential biomass increment, obtained by means of an integrating parameter for tree net primary production (NPP) in the form of the maximum possible biological productivity of the leaves/needles. Growth under the limited light and soil nitrogen are calculated, and the smaller of the two is used as the realised growth. The total growth of each tree is allocated to different mass compartments using species-specific proportions related to the age of the tree. The litter cohorts are assumed to decompose to form a pool of soil organic matter (SOM) in a manner that is dependent on climatic conditions and the quality of the litter. The simulated plot has an explicit nitrogen–carbon balance based on the turnover of these in the ecosystem linked to the dynamics of organic matter in the soil. The model, which allows standard forest inventory data to be used as input, has been constructed using an object-oriented approach. Comparison of the output of the model with growth and yield tables shows that the current model provides quite similar time courses for the main tree parameters (height, diameter, basal area, etc.) in the case of Scots pine ( Pinus sylvestris ), Norway spruce ( Picea abies ) and birch ( Betula pendula ) throughout Finland (60–70°N).

Net climate impacts of forest biomass production and utilization in managed boreal forests

In this work, we studied the potentials offered by managed boreal forests and forestry to mitigate the climate change using forest‐based materials and energy in substituting fossil‐based materials (concrete and plastic) and energy (coal and oil). For this purpose, we calculated the net climate impacts (radiative forcing) of forest biomass production and utilization in the managed Finnish boreal forests (60°–70°N) over a 90‐year period based on integrated use forest ecosystem model simulations (on carbon sequestration and biomass production of forests) and life‐cycle assessment (LCA) tool. When studying the effects of management on the radiative forcing in a system integrating the carbon sink/sources dynamics in both biosystem and technosystem, the current forest management (baseline management) was used a reference management. Our results showed that the use of forest‐based materials and energy in substituting fossil‐based materials and energy would provide an effective option for mitigating climate change. The negative climate impacts could be further decreased by maintaining forest stocking higher over the rotation compared to the baseline management and by harvesting stumps and coarse roots in addition to logging residues in the final felling. However, the climate impacts varied substantially over time depending on the prevailing forest structure and biomass assortment (timber, energy biomass) used in substitution.

Effects of stump extraction on the carbon sequestration in Norway spruce forest ecosystems under varying thinning regimes with implications for fossil fuel substitution

The overall aim of this work was to assess the effects of stump and root extraction on the long‐term carbon sequestration and average carbon storage in the integrated production of energy biomass and stemwood (pulpwood and sawlogs) under different thinning options (unthinned, current thinning and 30% increased thinning thresholds from current thresholds). The growth and development of Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst.) stands on a fertile site (Oxalis‐myrtillus) in central Finland (Joensuu region: 62˚39΄N, 29˚37΄E) was simulated for two consecutive rotation periods (80 + 80 years/160 years). Stemwood and energy biomass production, carbon sequestration, and average storage and emission dynamics related to the entire production process of biomass were assessed. The assessment was done by employing a life cycle assessment tool, which combines simulation outputs from an ecosystem model and the related technosystem emissions. It was found that stump and root harvesting constituted 21–36% of the total biomass production (energy biomass and stemwood) depending on the thinning regimes and rotation period. No considerable effect was found in stemwood production when stump and root extraction was compared to the regime in which stumps and roots were left at the site. Stump and root extraction did not affect carbon sequestration on the following rotation and, in fact, an increase in forest growth was found for the unthinned and 30% increased thresholds compared to the first rotation. The results also showed that if current thinning threshold is increased, win‐win situations are possible, especially when climate change mitigation is the main concern. The substitution of coal with energy biomass is possible without reducing carbon storage in the forest ecosystem. The utilization of energy biomass, including stumps and roots, instead of coal could reduce up to 33% of emissions over two rotation periods depending on the thinning regimes. Even if stumps and roots were excluded, a maximum of 19% carbon emissions could be reduced by using only logging residues.