Harry Comber

Cancer incidence and mortality patterns in Europe: Estimates for 40 countries in 2012

INTRODUCTION Cancer incidence and mortality estimates for 25 cancers are presented for the 40 countries in the four United Nations-defined areas of Europe and for the European Union (EU-27) for 2012. METHODS We used statistical models to estimate national incidence and mortality rates in 2012 from recently-published data, predicting incidence and mortality rates for the year 2012 from recent trends, wherever possible. The estimated rates in 2012 were applied to the corresponding population estimates to obtain the estimated numbers of new cancer cases and deaths in Europe in 2012. RESULTS There were an estimated 3.45 million new cases of cancer (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) and 1.75 million deaths from cancer in Europe in 2012. The most common cancer sites were cancers of the female breast (464,000 cases), followed by colorectal (447,000), prostate (417,000) and lung (410,000). These four cancers represent half of the overall burden of cancer in Europe. The most common causes of death from cancer were cancers of the lung (353,000 deaths), colorectal (215,000), breast (131,000) and stomach (107,000). In the European Union, the estimated numbers of new cases of cancer were approximately 1.4 million in males and 1.2 million in females, and around 707,000 men and 555,000 women died from cancer in the same year. CONCLUSION These up-to-date estimates of the cancer burden in Europe alongside the description of the varying distribution of common cancers at both the regional and country level provide a basis for establishing priorities to cancer control actions in Europe. The important role of cancer registries in disease surveillance and in planning and evaluating national cancer plans is becoming increasingly recognised, but needs to be further advocated. The estimates and software tools for further analysis (EUCAN 2012) are available online as part of the European Cancer Observatory (ECO) (http://eco.iarc.fr).

A population‐based study of skin cancer incidence and prevalence in renal transplant recipients

Background  Cancers occurring following solid organ transplantation are a rapidly growing public health concern. Defining the extent of the problem has been limited by surveillance systems with incomplete registration of cases and the paucity of reliable national incidence data.

Relationship between Helicobacter pylori infection and gastric atrophy and the stages of the oesophageal inflammation, metaplasia, adenocarcinoma sequence: results from the FINBAR case–control study

Objective: A number of studies have shown an inverse association between infection with Helicobacter pylori and oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC). The mechanism of the apparent protection against OAC by H pylori infection and, in particular, the role of gastric atrophy is disputed. The relationship between all stages of the oesophageal inflammation, metaplasia, adenocarcinoma sequence and H pylori infection and gastric atrophy was explored. Methods: A case–control study involving 260 population controls, 227 OAC, 224 Barrett’s oesophagus (BO) and 230 reflux oesophagitis (RO) patients recruited within Ireland was carried out. H pylori and CagA (cytotoxin-associated gene product A) infection was diagnosed serologically by western blot, and pepsinogen I and II levels were measured by enzyme immunoassay. Gastric atrophy was defined as a pepsinogen I/II ratio of <3. Results: H pylori seropositivity was inversely associated with OAC, BO and RO; adjusted ORs (95% CIs), 0.49 (0.31 to 0.76), 0.35 (0.22 to 0.56) and 0.42 (0.27 to 0.65), respectively. Gastric atrophy was uncommon (5.3% of all subjects), but was inversely associated with non-junctional OAC, BO and RO; adjusted ORs (95% CIs), 0.34 (0.10 to 1.24), 0.23 (0.05 to 0.96) and 0.27 (0.08 to 0.88), respectively. Inverse associations between H pylori and the disease states remained in gastric atrophy-negative patients. Conclusion: H pylori infection and gastric atrophy are associated with a reduced risk of OAC, BO and RO. While use of the pepsinogen I/II ratio as a marker for gastric atrophy has limitations, these data suggest that although gastric atrophy is involved it may not fully explain the inverse associations observed with H pylori infection.

Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and the esophageal inflammation-metaplasia-adenocarcinoma sequence.

Observational studies suggest that nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) reduce the risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma, but it is not known at what stage they may act in the esophageal inflammation-metaplasia-adenocarcinoma sequence. In an all-Ireland case-control study, we investigated the relationship between the use of NSAIDs and risk of reflux esophagitis, Barretts esophagus, and esophageal adenocarcinoma. Patients with esophageal adenocarcinoma, long-segment Barretts esophagus and population controls were recruited from throughout Ireland. Esophagitis patients were recruited from Northern Ireland only. Data were collected on known and potential risk factors for esophageal adenocarcinoma and on the use of NSAIDs, including aspirin, at least 1 year before interview. Associations between use of NSAIDs and the stages of the esophageal inflammation-metaplasia-adenocarcinoma sequence were estimated by multiple logistic regression. In total, 230 reflux esophagitis, 224 Barretts esophagus, and 227 esophageal adenocarcinoma and 260 population controls were recruited. Use of aspirin and NSAIDs was associated with a reduced risk of Barretts esophagus [odds ratio [OR; 95% confidence interval (95% CI)], 0.53 (0.31-0.90) and 0.40 (0.19-0.81), respectively] and esophageal adenocarcinoma [OR (95% CI), 0.57 (0.36-0.93) and 0.58 (0.31-1.08), respectively]. Barretts esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma patients were less likely than controls to have used NSAIDs. Selection or recall bias may explain these results and the results of previous observational studies indicating a protective effect of NSAIDs against esophageal adenocarcinoma. If NSAIDs have a true protective effect on the esophageal inflammation-metaplasia-adenocarcinoma sequence, they may act early in the sequence.

The Association Between Alcohol and Reflux Esophagitis, Barrett's Esophagus, and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND & AIMS Alcohol consumption may increase gastroesophageal reflux symptoms, cause damage to the esophageal mucosa, and/or promote carcinogenesis. However, reports about the association between alcohol and reflux esophagitis, Barretts esophagus, and esophageal adenocarcinoma are conflicting. METHODS Information relating to alcohol consumption, at age 21 and 5 years before the interview date, was collected from 230 reflux esophagitis, 224 Barretts esophagus, and 227 esophageal adenocarcinoma patients and 260 frequency-matched population controls. Logistic regression analyses were used to compare alcohol consumption in the 3 case groups to controls with adjustment for potential confounders. RESULTS Population controls reporting gastroesophageal reflux symptoms were less likely than controls without symptoms to drink alcohol 5 years before the interview date (odds ratio [OR], 0.44, 0.20-0.99). No associations were observed between total alcohol consumption 5 years before the interview date and reflux esophagitis, Barretts esophagus, or esophageal adenocarcinoma (OR, 1.26, 0.78-2.05; OR, 0.72, 0.43-1.21; and OR, 0.75, 0.46-1.22, respectively). Wine was inversely associated with reflux esophagitis (OR, 0.45, 0.27-0.75). Total alcohol consumption at age 21 years was significantly associated with reflux esophagitis (OR, 2.24, 1.35-3.74) but not with Barretts esophagus or esophageal adenocarcinoma (OR, 1.06, 0.63-1.79 and OR, 1.27, 0.77-2.10, respectively). CONCLUSIONS Alcohol consumption in early adulthood may lead to the development of reflux esophagitis. More recent alcohol consumption does not appear to confer any increased risk of reflux esophagitis, Barretts esophagus, or esophageal adenocarcinoma. In fact, wine consumption may reduce the risk of these 3 esophageal disorders.

Factors predicting hospital length-of-stay and readmission after colorectal resection: a population-based study of elective and emergency admissions.

BackgroundThe impact of developments in colorectal cancer surgery on length-of-stay (LOS) and re-admission have not been well described. In a population-based analysis, we investigated predictors of LOS and emergency readmission after the initial surgery episode.MethodsIncident colorectal cancers (ICD-O2: C18-C20), diagnosed 2002-2008, were identified from the National Cancer Registry Ireland, and linked to hospital in-patient episodes. For those who underwent colorectal resection, the associated hospital episode was identified. Factors predicting longer LOS (upper-quartile, > 24 days) for elective and emergency admissions separately, and whether LOS predicted emergency readmission within 28 days of discharge, were investigated using logistic regression.Results8197 patients underwent resection, 63% (n = 5133) elective and 37% (n = 3063) emergency admissions. Median LOS was 14 days (inter-quartile range (IQR) = 11-20) for elective and 21 (15-33) for emergency admissions. For both emergency and elective admissions, likelihood of longer LOS was significantly higher in patients who were older, had co-morbidities and were unmarried; it was reduced for private patients. For emergency patients only the likelihood of longer LOS was lower for patients admitted to higher-volume hospitals. Longer LOS was associated with increased risk of emergency readmission.ConclusionsOne quarter of patients stay in hospital for at least 25 days following colorectal resection. Over one third of resected patients are emergency admissions and these have a significantly longer median LOS. Patient- and health service-related factors were associated with prolonged LOS. Longer LOS was associated with increased risk of emergency readmission. The cost implications of these findings are significant.

Convergence of decreasing male and increasing female incidence rates in major tobacco-related cancers in Europe in 1988-2010

INTRODUCTION Smoking prevalence has been declining in men all over Europe, while the trend varies in European regions among women. To study the impact of past smoking prevalence, we present a comprehensive overview of the most recent trends in incidence, during 1988-2010, in 26 countries, of four of the major cancers in the respiratory and upper gastro-intestinal tract associated with tobacco smoking. METHODS Data from 47 population-based cancer registries for lung, laryngeal, oral cavity and pharyngeal, and oesophageal cancer cases were obtained from the newly developed data repository within the European Cancer Observatory (http://eco.iarc.fr/). Truncated age-standardised incidence rates (35-74 years) by calendar year, average annual percentage change in incidence over 1998-2007 were calculated. Smoking prevalence in selected countries was extracted from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the World Health Organization databases. RESULTS There remained great but changing variation in the incidence rates of tobacco-related cancers by European region. Generally, the high rates among men have been declining, while the lower rates among women are increasing, resulting in convergence of the rates. Female lung cancer rates were above male rates in Denmark, Iceland and Sweden (35-64 years). In lung and laryngeal cancers, where smoking is the main risk factor, rates were highest in central and eastern Europe, southern Europe and the Baltic countries. Despite a lowering of female smoking prevalence, female incidence rates of lung, laryngeal and oral cavity cancers increased in most parts of Europe, but were stable in the Baltic countries. Mixed trends emerged in oesophageal cancer, probably explained by differing risk factors for the two main histological subtypes. CONCLUSIONS This data repository offers the opportunity to show the variety of incidence trends by sex among European countries. The diverse patterns of trends reflect varied exposure to risk factors. Given the heavy cancer burden attributed to tobacco and the fact that tobacco use is entirely preventable, tobacco control remains a top priority in Europe. Prevention efforts should be intensified in central and eastern Europe, southern Europe and the Baltic countries.

Dietary Antioxidant and Mineral Intake in Humans Is Associated with Reduced Risk of Esophageal Adenocarcinoma but Not Reflux Esophagitis or Barrett's Esophagus

The role of antioxidants in the pathogenesis of reflux esophagitis (RE), Barretts esophagus (BE), and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) remains unknown. We evaluated the associations among dietary antioxidant intake and these diseases. We performed an assessment of dietary antioxidant intake in a case control study of RE (n = 219), BE (n = 220), EAC (n = 224), and matched population controls (n = 256) (the Factors Influencing the Barretts Adenocarcinoma Relationship study) using a modification of a validated FFQ. We found that overall antioxidant index, a measure of the combined intake of vitamin C, vitamin E, total carotenoids, and selenium, was associated with a reduced risk of EAC [odds ratio (OR) = 0.57; 95% CI = 0.33-0.98], but not BE (OR = 0.95; 95% CI = 0.53-1.71) or RE (OR = 1.60; 95% CI = 0.86-2.98), for those in the highest compared with lowest category of intake. Those in the highest category of vitamin C intake had a lower risk of EAC (OR = 0.37; 95% CI = 0.21-0.66; P-trend = 0.001) and RE (OR = 0.46; 95% CI = 0.24-0.90; P-trend = 0.03) compared with those in the lowest category. Vitamin C intake was not associated with BE, and intake of vitamin E, total carotenoids, zinc, copper, or selenium was not associated with EAC, BE, or RE. In conclusion, the overall antioxidant index was associated with a reduced risk of EAC. Higher dietary intake of vitamin C was associated with a reduced risk of EAC and RE. These results suggest that antioxidants may play a role in the pathogenesis of RE and EAC and may be more important in terms of progression rather than initiation of the disease process.

Cost-effectiveness of population-based screening for colorectal cancer: a comparison of guaiac-based faecal occult blood testing, faecal immunochemical testing and flexible sigmoidoscopy

Background:Several colorectal cancer-screening tests are available, but it is uncertain which provides the best balance of risks and benefits within a screening programme. We evaluated cost-effectiveness of a population-based screening programme in Ireland based on (i) biennial guaiac-based faecal occult blood testing (gFOBT) at ages 55–74, with reflex faecal immunochemical testing (FIT); (ii) biennial FIT at ages 55–74; and (iii) once-only flexible sigmoidoscopy (FSIG) at age 60.Methods:A state-transition model was used to estimate costs and outcomes for each screening scenario vs no screening. A third party payer perspective was adopted. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were undertaken.Results:All scenarios would be considered highly cost-effective compared with no screening. The lowest incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER vs no screening [euro ]589 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained) was found for FSIG, followed by FIT ([euro ]1696) and gFOBT ([euro ]4428); gFOBT was dominated. Compared with FSIG, FIT was associated with greater gains in QALYs and reductions in lifetime cancer incidence and mortality, but was more costly, required considerably more colonoscopies and resulted in more complications. Results were robust to variations in parameter estimates.Conclusion:Population-based screening based on FIT is expected to result in greater health gains than a policy of gFOBT (with reflex FIT) or once-only FSIG, but would require significantly more colonoscopy resources and result in more individuals experiencing adverse effects. Weighing these advantages and disadvantages presents a considerable challenge to policy makers.

The European Cancer Observatory: A new data resource

Population-based cancer registries provide indispensable information on cancer incidence and survival, which cannot be obtained by any other means. It is clear that complete and effective use of these data is essential for cancer control, but sharing this information in a uniform, timely and user-friendly manner has been somewhat limited up to now. The European Cancer Observatory (ECO, http://eco.iarc.fr) has been developed in the framework of the EUROCOURSE project (EUROpe against Cancer: Optimisation of Use of Registries for Scientific Excellence in Research) as a comprehensive resource combining all the information currently available in Europe on cancer incidence, mortality, survival and prevalence. The website provides analytical and presentation tools to examine national estimates for 2012 in 40 European countries (EUCAN), data for 130 national or sub-national areas covered by cancer registries for up to 60 years, until 2011 (EUREG) and a planned mechanism for data download (European Cancer Incidence and Mortality (EUROCIM)). The generated statistics outline the considerable variability across Europe in the rates of all major cancer types and help identify key concerns that need to be addressed by public health policies e.g. the unprecedented rise of lung cancer incidence in women with its full impact expected within a decade or so. The support, maintenance and further development of the ECO website should be a high priority for European cancer policymakers, to continue providing this unique information to health professionals, researchers and the general public in Europe and beyond.