Harry Rutter

Addressing liver disease in the UK: a blueprint for attaining excellence in health care and reducing premature mortality from lifestyle issues of excess consumption of alcohol, obesity, and viral hepatitis.

Liver disease in the UK stands out as the one glaring exception to the vast improvements made during the past 30 years in health and life expectancy for chronic disorders such as stroke, heart disease, and many cancers. Mortality rates have increased 400% since 1970, and in people younger than 65 years have risen by almost five-times. Liver disease constitutes the third commonest cause of premature death in the UK and the rate of increase of liver disease is substantially higher in the UK than other countries in western Europe. More than 1 million admissions to hospital per year are the result of alcohol-related disorders, and both the number of admissions and the increase in mortality closely parallel the rise in alcohol consumption in the UK during the past three decades. The aim of this Commission is to provide the strongest evidence base through involvement of experts from a wide cross-section of disciplines, making firm recommendations to reduce the unacceptable premature mortality and disease burden from avoidable causes and to improve the standard of care for patients with liver disease in hospital. From the substantial number of recommendations given in our Commission, we selected those that will have the greatest effect and that need urgent implementation. Although the recommendations are based mostly on data from England, they have wider application to the UK as a whole, and are in accord with the present strategy for health-care policy by the Scottish Health Boards, the Health Department of Wales, and the Department of Health and Social Services in Northern Ireland.

Could targeted food taxes improve health

Objective: To examine the effects on nutrition, health and expenditure of extending value added tax (VAT) to a wider range of foods in the UK. Method: A model based on consumption data and elasticity values was constructed to predict the effects of extending VAT to certain categories of food. The resulting changes in demand, expenditure, nutrition and health were estimated. Three different tax regimens were examined: (1) taxing the principal sources of dietary saturated fat; (2) taxing foods defined as unhealthy by the SSCg3d nutrient scoring system; and (3) taxing foods in order to obtain the best health outcome. Data: Consumption patterns and elasticity data were taken from the National Food Survey of Great Britain. The health effects of changing salt and fat intake were from previous meta-analyses. Results: (1) Taxing only the principal sources of dietary saturated fat is unlikely to reduce the incidence of cardiovascular disease because the reduction in saturated fat is offset by a rise in salt consumption. (2) Taxing unhealthy foods, defined by SSCg3d score, might avert around 2300 deaths per annum, primarily by reducing salt intake. (3) Taxing a wider range of foods could avert up to 3200 cardiovascular deaths in the UK per annum (a 1.7% reduction). Conclusions: Taxing foodstuffs can have unpredictable health effects if cross-elasticities of demand are ignored. A carefully targeted fat tax could produce modest but meaningful changes in food consumption and a reduction in cardiovascular disease.

Changes in health in England, with analysis by English regions and areas of deprivation, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Summary Background In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), knowledge about health and its determinants has been integrated into a comparable framework to inform health policy. Outputs of this analysis are relevant to current policy questions in England and elsewhere, particularly on health inequalities. We use GBD 2013 data on mortality and causes of death, and disease and injury incidence and prevalence to analyse the burden of disease and injury in England as a whole, in English regions, and within each English region by deprivation quintile. We also assess disease and injury burden in England attributable to potentially preventable risk factors. England and the English regions are compared with the remaining constituent countries of the UK and with comparable countries in the European Union (EU) and beyond. Methods We extracted data from the GBD 2013 to compare mortality, causes of death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with a disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in England, the UK, and 18 other countries (the first 15 EU members [apart from the UK] and Australia, Canada, Norway, and the USA [EU15+]). We extended elements of the analysis to English regions, and subregional areas defined by deprivation quintile (deprivation areas). We used data split by the nine English regions (corresponding to the European boundaries of the Nomenclature for Territorial Statistics level 1 [NUTS 1] regions), and by quintile groups within each English region according to deprivation, thereby making 45 regional deprivation areas. Deprivation quintiles were defined by area of residence ranked at national level by Index of Multiple Deprivation score, 2010. Burden due to various risk factors is described for England using new GBD methodology to estimate independent and overlapping attributable risk for five tiers of behavioural, metabolic, and environmental risk factors. We present results for 306 causes and 2337 sequelae, and 79 risks or risk clusters. Findings Between 1990 and 2013, life expectancy from birth in England increased by 5·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 5·0–5·8) from 75·9 years (75·9–76·0) to 81·3 years (80·9–81·7); gains were greater for men than for women. Rates of age-standardised YLLs reduced by 41·1% (38·3–43·6), whereas DALYs were reduced by 23·8% (20·9–27·1), and YLDs by 1·4% (0·1–2·8). For these measures, England ranked better than the UK and the EU15+ means. Between 1990 and 2013, the range in life expectancy among 45 regional deprivation areas remained 8·2 years for men and decreased from 7·2 years in 1990 to 6·9 years in 2013 for women. In 2013, the leading cause of YLLs was ischaemic heart disease, and the leading cause of DALYs was low back and neck pain. Known risk factors accounted for 39·6% (37·7–41·7) of DALYs; leading behavioural risk factors were suboptimal diet (10·8% [9·1–12·7]) and tobacco (10·7% [9·4–12·0]). Interpretation Health in England is improving although substantial opportunities exist for further reductions in the burden of preventable disease. The gap in mortality rates between men and women has reduced, but marked health inequalities between the least deprived and most deprived areas remain. Declines in mortality have not been matched by similar declines in morbidity, resulting in people living longer with diseases. Health policies must therefore address the causes of ill health as well as those of premature mortality. Systematic action locally and nationally is needed to reduce risk exposures, support healthy behaviours, alleviate the severity of chronic disabling disorders, and mitigate the effects of socioeconomic deprivation. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Public Health England.

Successful behavior change in obesity interventions in adults: a systematic review of self-regulation mediators

BackgroundRelapse is high in lifestyle obesity interventions involving behavior and weight change. Identifying mediators of successful outcomes in these interventions is critical to improve effectiveness and to guide approaches to obesity treatment, including resource allocation. This article reviews the most consistent self-regulation mediators of medium- and long-term weight control, physical activity, and dietary intake in clinical and community behavior change interventions targeting overweight/obese adults.MethodsA comprehensive search of peer-reviewed articles, published since 2000, was conducted on electronic databases (for example, MEDLINE) and journal reference lists. Experimental studies were eligible if they reported intervention effects on hypothesized mediators (self-regulatory and psychological mechanisms) and the association between these and the outcomes of interest (weight change, physical activity, and dietary intake). Quality and content of selected studies were analyzed and findings summarized. Studies with formal mediation analyses were reported separately.ResultsThirty-five studies were included testing 42 putative mediators. Ten studies used formal mediation analyses. Twenty-eight studies were randomized controlled trials, mainly aiming at weight loss or maintenance (n = 21). Targeted participants were obese (n = 26) or overweight individuals, aged between 25 to 44 years (n = 23), and 13 studies targeted women only. In terms of study quality, 13 trials were rated as “strong”, 15 as “moderate”, and 7 studies as “weak”. In addition, methodological quality of formal mediation analyses was “medium”. Identified mediators for medium-/long-term weight control were higher levels of autonomous motivation, self-efficacy/barriers, self-regulation skills (such as self-monitoring), flexible eating restraint, and positive body image. For physical activity, significant putative mediators were high autonomous motivation, self-efficacy, and use of self-regulation skills. For dietary intake, the evidence was much less clear, and no consistent mediators were identified.ConclusionsThis is the first systematic review of mediational psychological mechanisms of successful outcomes in obesity-related lifestyle change interventions. Despite limited evidence, higher autonomous motivation, self-efficacy, and self-regulation skills emerged as the best predictors of beneficial weight and physical activity outcomes; for weight control, positive body image and flexible eating restraint may additionally improve outcomes. These variables represent possible targets for future lifestyle interventions in overweight/obese populations.

Obesogenic environments: a systematic review of the association between the physical environment and adult weight status, the SPOTLIGHT project

BackgroundUnderstanding which physical environmental factors affect adult obesity, and how best to influence them, is important for public health and urban planning. Previous attempts to summarise the literature have not systematically assessed the methodological quality of included studies, or accounted for environmental differences between continents or the ways in which environmental characteristics were measured.MethodsWe have conducted an updated review of the scientific literature on associations of physical environmental factors with adult weight status, stratified by continent and mode of measurement, accompanied by a detailed risk-of-bias assessment. Five databases were systematically searched for studies published between 1995 and 2013.ResultsTwo factors, urban sprawl and land use mix, were found consistently associated with weight status, although only in North America.ConclusionsWith the exception of urban sprawl and land use mix in the US the results of the current review confirm that the available research does not allow robust identification of ways in which that physical environment influences adult weight status, even after taking into account methodological quality.

WHO European Childhood Obesity Surveillance Initiative 2008: weight, height and body mass index in 6-9-year-old children.

What is already known about this subject Overweight and obesity prevalence estimates among children based on International Obesity Task Force definitions are substantially lower than estimates based on World Health Organization definitions. Presence of a north–south gradient with the highest level of overweight found in southern European countries. Intercountry comparisons of overweight and obesity in primary‐school children in Europe based on measured data lack a similar data collection protocol.

Implications of the Foresight Obesity System Map for Solutions to Childhood Obesity

1Department of Biomedical Physiology and Kinesiology, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada; 2National Obesity Observatory, Oxford, England. Correspondence: Diane T. Finegood (Finegood@sfu.ca) Shifting the paradigm Our understanding of the causal factors that contribute to the obesity epidemic has evolved over time. Although some still describe the problem as “people eat too much and move too little,” this articulation has not brought us closer to understanding what to do to reverse current trends. Various conceptual models have framed the problem of obesity in different ways. Bray suggested an epidemiological model which illustrates agents such as food, viruses, and toxins acting on a host to produce disease, and a homeostatic model where fat acts on the brain (controller) which in turn feeds back to act on the fat (controlled system) (1). He described the interpretation of these models as “genetic background loads the gun, but the environment pulls the trigger” and suggested they imply the need for a simple FLOURIDE (For Lowering Universal Obesity Rates Implement ideas that Don’t demand Effort) solution. The International Obesity Task Force expanded on the concept of environmental agents by introducing its “causal web” (2). In the causal web, environmental factors are illustrated as “black boxes” such as school food and activity, public transport and urbanization. These factors are organized in columns according to their proximity to the individual, i.e., factors associated with work/school/home, community/locality, national/ regional, and international levels. Distal contextual factors such as globalization of markets, and media and culture are shown to act on more proximal factors which in turn act on energy expenditure and food intake. The connections are simple one way arrows and biological factors are not included. The causal web helps to illustrate the diversity of factors affecting individuals and suggests that we will need to implement many ideas that “don’t demand effort” on the part of the individual. Although the causal web suggests the challenge of addressing obesity is complicated, it does not explicitly illustrate the problem as “complex”. Absent from the causal web is consideration of the feedback loops which are a hallmark of complex adaptive systems. More recently the Foresight Programme of the UK Government Office for Science published an obesity system map, developed through a multistakeholder process (3). This qualitative, conceptual model has 108 variables, some of which are measureable (e.g., the ambient temperature of the indoor environment), and other variables that are more difficult to quantify (e.g., desire to differentiate food offerings). The relationships between the variables are illustrated with >300 solid or dashed lines to indicate positive and negative influences. All the variables are interconnected, some with large numbers of inputs and others with large numbers of outputs. The connections give rise to feedback loops with as few as two variables (e.g., a affects b which in turn affects a) or involving as many as 16 variables. At the core of the map is “energy balance” (energy intake vs. energy expenditure). The core (also referred to as the engine) is surrounded by variables that directly or indirectly influence energy balance. These variables are clustered in seven themes ranging from Food Production to Physiology. Apart from the physiological cluster, most of the variables can be considered on an individual, family, group, or societal scale. For example, the “level of physical activity” can be considered for a particular individual or as an average for the whole population. The Foresight obesity project articulated the ambitious goal of defining the obesity system as “the sum of all the relevant factors and their interdependencies that determine the condition of obesity for an individual or a group of people” (3). Although the notion that the process could give rise to a map of “all” relevant factors was perhaps over ambitious, the map effectively illustrates the complexity of obesity by highlighting the interdependencies among variables as diverse as the pressure on the food industry to cater for acquired tastes and conscious control of an individual’s accumulation of energy. The map is dominated by its illustration of the connections and feedback loops between variables. Although the map cannot be considered comprehensive, its construction engaged a broad range of stakeholders, including scientists, the private sector and government departments in a dialogue about how to tackle this wicked problem (4). The dialogue helped to forge multisector, multidisciplinary relationships that support future government decision making based on evidence (4). An enduring value of the map is its use as a heuristic. It illustrates the complex multifactoral nature of the systems that give rise to obesity and it can be used to stimulate an even broader discussion among relevant actors ranging from multiple government departments to school age children (5,6). In this way the map helps the development of a more sophisticated and integrated policy approach. The Foresight program on obesity gave rise to the work of organizations such as the English National Obesity Observatory (NOO) (http://www. Implications of the Foresight Obesity System Map for Solutions to Childhood Obesity

Changes in health in England with analysis by English region and areas of deprivation: findings of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Summary Background In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), knowledge about health and its determinants has been integrated into a comparable framework to inform health policy. Outputs of this analysis are relevant to current policy questions in England and elsewhere, particularly on health inequalities. We use GBD 2013 data on mortality and causes of death, and disease and injury incidence and prevalence to analyse the burden of disease and injury in England as a whole, in English regions, and within each English region by deprivation quintile. We also assess disease and injury burden in England attributable to potentially preventable risk factors. England and the English regions are compared with the remaining constituent countries of the UK and with comparable countries in the European Union (EU) and beyond. Methods We extracted data from the GBD 2013 to compare mortality, causes of death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with a disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in England, the UK, and 18 other countries (the first 15 EU members [apart from the UK] and Australia, Canada, Norway, and the USA [EU15+]). We extended elements of the analysis to English regions, and subregional areas defined by deprivation quintile (deprivation areas). We used data split by the nine English regions (corresponding to the European boundaries of the Nomenclature for Territorial Statistics level 1 [NUTS 1] regions), and by quintile groups within each English region according to deprivation, thereby making 45 regional deprivation areas. Deprivation quintiles were defined by area of residence ranked at national level by Index of Multiple Deprivation score, 2010. Burden due to various risk factors is described for England using new GBD methodology to estimate independent and overlapping attributable risk for five tiers of behavioural, metabolic, and environmental risk factors. We present results for 306 causes and 2337 sequelae, and 79 risks or risk clusters. Findings Between 1990 and 2013, life expectancy from birth in England increased by 5·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 5·0–5·8) from 75·9 years (75·9–76·0) to 81·3 years (80·9–81·7); gains were greater for men than for women. Rates of age-standardised YLLs reduced by 41·1% (38·3–43·6), whereas DALYs were reduced by 23·8% (20·9–27·1), and YLDs by 1·4% (0·1–2·8). For these measures, England ranked better than the UK and the EU15+ means. Between 1990 and 2013, the range in life expectancy among 45 regional deprivation areas remained 8·2 years for men and decreased from 7·2 years in 1990 to 6·9 years in 2013 for women. In 2013, the leading cause of YLLs was ischaemic heart disease, and the leading cause of DALYs was low back and neck pain. Known risk factors accounted for 39·6% (37·7–41·7) of DALYs; leading behavioural risk factors were suboptimal diet (10·8% [9·1–12·7]) and tobacco (10·7% [9·4–12·0]). Interpretation Health in England is improving although substantial opportunities exist for further reductions in the burden of preventable disease. The gap in mortality rates between men and women has reduced, but marked health inequalities between the least deprived and most deprived areas remain. Declines in mortality have not been matched by similar declines in morbidity, resulting in people living longer with diseases. Health policies must therefore address the causes of ill health as well as those of premature mortality. Systematic action locally and nationally is needed to reduce risk exposures, support healthy behaviours, alleviate the severity of chronic disabling disorders, and mitigate the effects of socioeconomic deprivation. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Public Health England.

Strengthening of accountability systems to create healthy food environments and reduce global obesity

To achieve WHOs target to halt the rise in obesity and diabetes, dramatic actions are needed to improve the healthiness of food environments. Substantial debate surrounds who is responsible for delivering effective actions and what, specifically, these actions should entail. Arguments are often reduced to a debate between individual and collective responsibilities, and between hard regulatory or fiscal interventions and soft voluntary, education-based approaches. Genuine progress lies beyond the impasse of these entrenched dichotomies. We argue for a strengthening of accountability systems across all actors to substantially improve performance on obesity reduction. In view of the industry opposition and government reluctance to regulate for healthier food environments, quasiregulatory approaches might achieve progress. A four step accountability framework (take the account, share the account, hold to account, and respond to the account) is proposed. The framework identifies multiple levers for change, including quasiregulatory and other approaches that involve government-specified and government-monitored progress of private sector performance, government procurement mechanisms, improved transparency, monitoring of actions, and management of conflicts of interest. Strengthened accountability systems would support government leadership and stewardship, constrain the influence of private sector actors with major conflicts of interest on public policy development, and reinforce the engagement of civil society in creating demand for healthy food environments and in monitoring progress towards obesity action objectives.

Who owns the roads? How motorised traffic discourages walking and bicycling

Objective: To examine the impact of traffic on levels of walking and bicycling. Method: Review of the literature of medical, public health, city planning, public administration and traffic engineering. Results: The real and perceived danger and discomfort imposed by traffic discourage walking and bicycling. Accurately or not, pedestrians and bicyclists judge injury risk and respond accordingly. Although it can be difficult to measure these effects, observed behaviour provides good evidence for these effects, with the strongest association being an inverse correlation between volumes and speeds of traffic and levels of walking and cycling. Conclusion: Interventions to reduce traffic speed and volume are likely to promote walking and bicycling and thus result in public health gains.