Haruka Ohashi

Potential effects of climate change on geographic distribution of the Tertiary relict tree species Davidia involucrata in China

This study, using species distribution modeling (involving a new approach that allows for uncertainty), predicts the distribution of climatically suitable areas prevailing during the mid-Holocene, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and at present, and estimates the potential formation of new habitats in 2070 of the endangered and rare Tertiary relict tree Davidia involucrata Baill. The results regarding the mid-Holocene and the LGM demonstrate that south-central and southwestern China have been long-term stable refugia, and that the current distribution is limited to the prehistoric refugia. Given future distribution under six possible climate scenarios, only some parts of the current range of D. involucrata in the mid-high mountains of south-central and southwestern China would be maintained, while some shift west into higher mountains would occur. Our results show that the predicted suitable area offering high probability (0.5‒1) accounts for an average of only 29.2% among the models predicted for the future (2070), making D. involucrata highly vulnerable. We assess and propose priority protected areas in light of climate change. The information provided will also be relevant in planning conservation of other paleoendemic species having ecological traits and distribution ranges comparable to those of D. involucrata.

Influence of human activities on the activity patterns of Japanese sika deer (Cervus nippon) and wild boar (Sus scrofa) in Central Japan

Human ageing and population decline in Japan are causing agricultural field abandonment and providing new habitats for Japanese sika deer and wild boar. These species have expanded their distribution and increased in abundance across Japan and are causing increased agricultural damage. Effective countermeasures must factor in the behavioural flexibility of sika deer and wild boar. The aim of this study was to examine the effects of hunting and indirect human activities on the activity patterns of sika deer in central Japan and compare these with previous findings on wild boar. Camera traps were used to observe activity patterns of both species and that of humans. Sika deer and wild boar were most active at night during the non-hunting season. Hunting activities significantly reduced sika deer and wild boar activity patterns. In the non-hunting season, nocturnal activity of sika deer increased with decreasing distance to settlement. A similar, but weak response was also observed for wild boar. This study suggests that sika deer and wild boar avoid humans and human-dominated areas by being nocturnal. The recent introduction of night hunting might help to control wildlife populations, but monitoring will be necessary to confirm this expectation.

Disturbance by large herbivores alters the relative importance of the ecological processes that influence the assembly pattern in heterogeneous meta‐communities

Disturbance caused by large herbivores can affect the relative importance of ecological processes in determining community assembly and may cause a systematic loss of biodiversity across scales. To examine changes in the community assembly pattern caused by an overabundance of large herbivores in Japan, we analyzed community composition data from before and after the overabundance occurred. The community assembly pattern becomes more random after the deer overabundance. In addition, result of variation partitioning revealed decrease in importance of environmental processes and increase in importance of spatial processes. However, response of turnover rate, niche breadth, and niche overlap was heterogeneous, according to scale of each environmental gradient. Our results emphasize the importance of conserving habitat specialists that represent the local environment (habitat type and topography) at various altitudinal ranges to maintain biodiversity at regional scales under the increasing pressure of large herbivores.

Land abandonment and changes in snow cover period accelerate range expansions of sika deer

Abstract Ongoing climate change and land‐use change have the potential to substantially alter the distribution of large herbivores. This may result in drastic changes in ecosystems by changing plant–herbivore interactions. Here, we developed a model explaining sika deer persistence and colonization between 25 years in terms of neighborhood occupancy and habitat suitability. We used climatic, land‐use, and topographic variables to calculate the habitat suitability and evaluated the contributions of the variables to past range changes of sika deer. We used this model to predict the changes in the range of sika deer over the next 100 years under four scenario groups with the combination of land‐use change and climate change. Our results showed that both climate change and land‐use change had affected the range of sika deer in the past 25 years. Habitat suitability increased in northern or mountainous regions, which account for 71.6% of Japan, in line with a decrease in the snow cover period. Habitat suitability decreased in suburban areas, which account for 28.4% of Japan, corresponding to land‐use changes related to urbanization. In the next 100 years, the decrease in snow cover period and the increase in land abandonment were predicted to accelerate the range expansion of sika deer. Comparison of these two driving factors revealed that climate change will contribute more to range expansion, particularly from the 2070s onward. In scenarios that assumed the influence of both climate change and land‐use change, the total sika deer range increased by between +4.6% and +11.9% from the baseline scenario. Climate change and land‐use change will require additional efforts for future management of sika deer, particularly in the long term.

Projecting spatiotemporal changes in suitable climate conditions to regenerate trees using niche differences between adult and juvenile trees

Assessing suitable climate conditions to regenerate trees over a large area is of great importance to investigate potential impacts of climate change. In this study, we developed a size-based species distribution model (SBSDM) to assess spatiotemporal changes in the tree regeneration niche separately from the growth niche in adults. Siebold’s beech (Fagus crenata) was selected as the target species. We projected (1) areas where adult and juvenile potential habitats (PHs) overlapped, (2)only-adult PHs, (3) only-juvenile PHs, and (4) non-habitats for 2080–2099 using the SBSDM, a distribution dataset from the Phytosociological Relevé Database of Japan, and a future climatic dataset from 24 general circulation models (GCMs). We also projected juvenile PHs for all decades between 2011 and 2099 using four representative GCMs to assess potential lost decades of the regeneration niche. The SBSDM provided sufficient projections of adult and juvenile tree distributions as well as their niche differences under the current climate. Overlapping areas and only-adult PHs were projected to decrease by the end of this century. An increase in only-juvenile PHs was projected to occur in snowy regions, with juvenile PHs starting to decrease in warm and less snowy regions. Furthermore, juvenile PHs are expected to decrease widely around 2060 as well as at the end of this century due to considerable rapid warming around those times. We conclude that regeneration of F. crenata will start to decline in 2060, but snowy conditions will postpone the timing of the regeneration loss, causing an increase in only-juvenile PHs.

Potential distribution of pine wilt disease under future climate change scenarios

Pine wilt disease (PWD) constitutes a serious threat to pine forests. Since development depends on temperature and drought, there is a concern that future climate change could lead to the spread of PWD infections. We evaluated the risk of PWD in 21 susceptible Pinus species on a global scale. The MB index, which represents the sum of the difference between the mean monthly temperature and 15 when the mean monthly temperatures exceeds 15°C, was used to determine current and future regions vulnerable to PWD (MB ≥ 22). For future climate conditions, we compared the difference in PWD risks among four different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and two time periods (2050s and 2070s). We also evaluated the impact of climate change on habitat suitability for each Pinus species using species distribution models. The findings were then integrated and the potential risk of PWD spread under climate change was discussed. Within the natural Pinus distribution area, southern parts of North America, Europe, and Asia were categorized as vulnerable regions (MB ≥ 22; 16% of the total Pinus distribution area). Representative provinces in which PWD has been reported at least once overlapped with the vulnerable regions. All RCP scenarios showed expansion of vulnerable regions in northern parts of Europe, Asia, and North America under future climate conditions. By the 2070s, under RCP 8.5, an estimated increase in the area of vulnerable regions to approximately 50% of the total Pinus distribution area was revealed. In addition, the habitat conditions of a large portion of the Pinus distribution areas in Europe and Asia were deemed unsuitable by the 2070s under RCP 8.5. Approximately 40% of these regions overlapped with regions deemed vulnerable to PWD, suggesting that Pinus forests in these areas are at risk of serious damage due to habitat shifts and spread of PWD.

Formation of disjunct plant distributions in Northeast Asia: a case study of Betula davurica using a species distribution model

Repeated climate change during glacial and interglacial periods of the Quaternary led to mass migrations that resulted in disjunct distributions for many species. However, few studies have examined the processes that form disjunct distributions in Northeast Asia (NEA). In this study, we examined the disjunct distribution of Betula davurica Pall. in the Japanese archipelago. This species is a dominant canopy tree found in cool-temperate deciduous broad-leaved forests of continental NEA. We hypothesized that Quaternary climate change caused the present disjunct distribution pattern of this species. To test this hypothesis, we adopted a species distribution model and examined a series of potential habitats in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the mid-Holocene, and the present. We generated models in MaxEnt with B. davurica presence as the response variable and six bioclimatic variables as predictor variables. During the LGM, projected potential habitats were distributed around the Korean Peninsula, East China, and the Japanese archipelago, excluding Hokkaido. In the mid-Holocene, habitats retreated both from East China and western Japan, remained unchanged in the Korean Peninsula and central Honshu mountains, and expanded to northern China, the Russian Far East, as well as northern Japan (Hokkaido). Thus, post-LGM global warming led to an expansion of B. davurica distribution to northern parts of continental NEA, along with a retreat in the Japanese archipelago. This shift in populations formed the present disjunct distribution.

Identifying long-term stable refugia for relict plant species in East Asia

Today East Asia harbors many “relict” plant species whose ranges were much larger during the Paleogene-Neogene and earlier. The ecological and climatic conditions suitable for these relict species have not been identified. Here, we map the abundance and distribution patterns of relict species, showing high abundance in the humid subtropical/warm-temperate forest regions. We further use Ecological Niche Modeling to show that these patterns align with maps of climate refugia, and we predict species’ chances of persistence given the future climatic changes expected for East Asia. By 2070, potentially suitable areas with high richness of relict species will decrease, although the areas as a whole will probably expand. We identify areas in southwestern China and northern Vietnam as long-term climatically stable refugia likely to preserve ancient lineages, highlighting areas that could be prioritized for conservation of such species.East Asia contains “relict” plant species that persist under narrow climatic conditions after once having wider distributions. Here, using distribution records coupled with ecological niche models, the authors identify long-term stable refugia possessing past, current and future climatic suitability favoring ancient plant lineages.