Harun Kemal Ozturk

Energy Demand Estimation Based on Two-Different Genetic Algorithm Approaches

Energy modeling is a subject of widespread current interest among engineers and scientists concerned with problems of energy production and consumption. Energy planning is not possible without a reasonable knowledge of past and present energy consumption and likely future demands. In this study, two forms of the energy demand equations are developed in order to improve energy demand estimation efficiency for future projections based on the genetic algorithm (GA) notion. The genetic algorithm energy demand (GAEDM) model is used to estimate Turkeys future energy demand based on gross domestic product, population, import, and export figures. Both equations proposed here are non-linear, of which one is exponential and the other is quadratic. The quadratic form of the GAEDM model provided a slightly better fit solution to the observed data and can be used with a high correlation coefficient for Turkeys future energy projections. It is expected that this study will be helpful in developing highly applicable and productive planning for energy policies.

Overview of Kizildere Geothermal Power Plant in Turkey

Abstract Achieving sustainable development is a target that is now widely seen as important in worldwide public opinion. In this context, the utilization of renewable energy resources such as solar, geothermal and wind energy appears to be one of the most efficient and effective ways of achieving this target. Recently, power generation from geothermal energy has become of big importance in Turkey, which is located on the Mediterranean sector of the Alpine-Himalayan Tectonic Belt and is among the first seven countries in abundance of geothermal resources around the world. The main objective in doing the present study is twofold, namely: (a) to investigate Turkey’s geothermal energy potential for power generation and (b) to overview the Denizli-Kizildere geothermal power plant (DKGPP) with an installed capacity of 20.4 MW e , which is at present the only operating geothermal power plant of Turkey. Based on the drilling data, which have been gathered to date, Turkey’s geothermal energy potential for power generation is determined to be 764.81 MW e . Electricity generation projections of Turkey are also 500 MW e from Germencik, Kizildere, Tuzla and several of the other fields by the year 2010 and 1000 MW e by 2020. The Denizli-Kizildere geothermal field has an estimated capacity of 200 MW e . The DKGPP was put into operation in 1984 and has been operated since then. It produced an electrical energy of 89,597 MWh in 2001, representing an electric power of 10.6 MW e in the same year. Present applications have shown that in Turkey, geothermal energy is a promising alternative and can make a significant contribution towards reducing the emission of greenhouse gases. As the public recognizes the projects, the progress will continue.

Estimating Energy and Exergy Production and Consumption Values Using Three Different Genetic Algorithm Approaches. Part 2: Application and Scenarios

Abstract The main objective of the present study is to investigate the application of the genetic algorithm (GA) method with various scenarios for the future estimation of the energy and exergy production and consumption values. The methodology developed and presented in detail in Part 1 of this study was applied to Turkeys energy and exergy utilization values. Good correlations were obtained in all cases, indicating the validity of the models proposed that can be used to estimate total energy and exergy production and consumption of Turkey for the period of 2000–2020. It may be concluded that the models reported here will provide the investigators with knowledge about how a country can model its natural resources in terms of energy and exergy utilizations.

The Place of Natural Gas in Turkey’s Energy Sources and Future Perspectives

Turkey is an important candidate to be the “energy corridor” in the transmission of the abundant oil and natural gas resources of the Middle East and Middle Asia countries to the Western market. Turkey is planning to increase its oil and gas pipeline infrastructure to accommodate its increased energy usage. The main objective of the present study is to investigate the place of natural gas in Turkey’s energy sources by presenting its historical development. Natural gas consumption started in 1976 with the usage of limited indigenous natural gas production in a few industrial plants in Turkey. However, natural gas began penetrating the energy market in the late 1980s. Its consumption is increasing rapidly. The first autoproducer natural gas-fired plant was installed in 1992, while imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Algeria started in 1994 after the completion of the Marmara LNG terminal. In 1995, natural gas represented 8% of the total final energy consumption. Gas sales started at 0.5 Bcm (billion cubic meters), in 1987 and reached approximately 16.03 Bcm in 2001. Of this, power generation accounted for 68.6%, followed by fertilizer at 0.75% (0.121 Bcm), the industrial sector at 9.8%, and the residential and commercial sectors at 20.85%. Turkish natural gas use is projected to increase dramatically in coming years, with the prime consumers expected to be industry and power plants.

Natural Gas Implementation in Turkey. Part 1: Turkey's Natural Gas Demand and Supplies

The main objective of the present study is to investigate Turkeys natural gas (NG) demand and supplies by giving the structure of the Turkish gas industry, NG pricing policy, and NG agreements. Turkey began to import NG from Russia in 1987 under a contract that provided for the delivery of 6 billion cubic meters annually (Bcma) for 25 years. The first contract, signed in 1988, stipulates delivery of 2 Bcma over a 20-yr period. The build-up of the Turkish gas market started by introducing gas in power generation in 1987 and in fertilizer production in 1988. Later contracts provide for total imports of 4 Bcma from the late 1990s. NG sales started at 0.5 Bcm in 1987 and reached to around 16 Bcm in 2001. Turkish NG demand is projected to increase extremely rapidly in coming years, with the prime consumers expected to be NG-fired electric power plants and industrial users.

Energy and Exergy Analysis of Kizildere Geothermal Power Plant, Turkey

Exergy analysis is important for all energy resource utilization since it is part of energy analysis. In recent years, exergy analysis has been widely used in the design and performance evaluation of thermal systems. In this study, an exergy assessment and modeling of geothermal power plants is presented. A comprehensive case study is conducted in the Kizildere Geothermal Power Plant (KGPP) in Denizli, Turkey. Using the plant data, an evaluation of the KGPP performance, energy and exergy efficiencies, and exergy destructions in each component of the plant as well as in the whole plant are quantified and illustrated using an exergy flow diagram. In addition, a parametric study on the effect of varying reference state properties on the exergy efficiencies of the KGPP is conducted to find the optimum performance and operating conditions.

Exergy analysis and environmental impact assessment of a photovoltaic-hydrogen production system

In this study, exergy analysis and environmental impact assessment of a Photovoltaic (PV)-hydrogen production system and its components are carried out. Actual data measured in the system are employed for analysis purposes. Daily hydrogen production amount from solar energy through water electrolysis is 4.43 kg. The average system exergy efficiency is determined to be 3.18%. It is found that the highest exergy destruction occurs in the PVs. In the PVs, 93.3% of the total exergy input (incoming solar exergy) is destroyed. The second highest exergy destruction is from the electrolyser as 4.76% of the total exergy destruction. The average percent exergy destructions are 1.29% and 1.94% for charge controllers-inverter and batteries, respectively.

Geothermal Fields Suitable for Power Generation

Turkey is located on the Mediterranean sector of Alpine-Himalayan Tectonic Belt with many grabens, acidic volcanism, hydrothermal alteration zones, numerous hot springs and fumaroles. The data gathered since 1962 indicate that Turkey has a high geothermal energy potential. By comparison, it is among the first seven countries in abundance of geothermal resources around the world, while the share of its potential used is only about 2%. This means that considerable studies on geothermal energy could be conducted in order to increase energy supply and to reduce atmospheric pollution in Turkey. The main objective of the present study is threefold, namely: (1) to overview Turkeys geothermal fields suitable for power generation together with their possible utilization opportunities, (2) to present problems encountered and research projects developed in the Denizli-Kizildere geothermal field with an estimated capacity of 200 MWe and (3) to assess the current status of geothermal energy use for electric energy production in Turkey. The Denizli-Kizildere geothermal power plant with an installed capacity of 20.4 MWe, which is, at present, the only operating geothermal power plant of Turkey, was put into operation in 1984, while electricity from geothermal energy has been produced commercially since 1913. This plant produced on average an electrical energy of 84,920 MWh in the period between 1998–2001, representing an average electric power of 10.45 MWe in the same period. Parallel to the development of the geothermal energy utilization in the country, it is projected that, by the years 2010 and 2020, the total geothermal power installed capacity will increase to 500 MWe and 1000 MWe, respectively.

Modeling hydraulic and thermal electricity production based on genetic algorithm-time series (GATS)

Abstract This study deals with the estimation of electricity production from hydraulic and thermal sources using the Genetic Algorithm (GA) with time series (TS) approach. Two forms of the mathematical models are developed, of which one is exponential and the second is polynomial. The power form of the Genetic Algorithm-Time Series (GATS) model is used for the thermal electricity production. The polynomial form of the GATS is used for the electricity production from the hydraulic sources. The GATS weighting parameters are obtained by minimizing the Sum of Squared Error (SSE) between observed and estimated electricity production from both sources. Therefore, the fitness function adapted is the minimization of the SSE for use in the GA process. The application of the GATS model is correspondingly presented. Some future scenarios are made to increase the electricity production from hydraulic sources. Variations of the electricity production from thermal and hydraulic energy sources are analyzed. Future prospects of electricity production are dealt with in terms of policy changes. The GATS models are used for making scenarios for future electricity planning policy. Results also show if current trend continues, the thermal electricity production amounts to 75% of the total electricity production, which is undesirable for environmental concerns. Results also shows that if new policy is to move from the thermal to hydraulic electricity production, the hydraulic sources will meet the demand until 2020. #Contributed by the Organizing Committee for the First International Exergy, Energy and Environment Symposium (IEEES-1). Paper presented at IEEES-1, Izmir, Turkey, 13–17 July 2003. Manuscript received by IJGE on 2004-12-27; final revision received on 2004-04-07. Corresponding guest editors: I. Dincer and A. Hepbasli.

Genetic Algorithm (GA) Approaches for the Transport Energy Demand Estimation: Model Development and Application

This study deals with estimating future transport energy demand using genetic algorithm (GA) approach. Genetic algorithm transport energy demand (GATENDM) model is developed based on socio-economic indicators (population, gross domestic product (GDP), import and export) and transportation indicators/parameters (car, bus, and truck sales). The GATENDM model developed is applied to Turkey, which is selected as an application country. This model in a quadratic form was found to provide the best fit solution to the observed data. It may be concluded that the model proposed can be used as an alternative solution and estimation technique to available estimation technique in predicting the future transportation energy utilization values of countries.