Haruo Hayashi

Using the Viable System Model (VSM) to structure information processing complexity in disaster response

Earthquakes, hurricanes, flooding and terrorist attacks continue to threaten our society and, when the worst happens, lives depend on different agencies to manage the response. The literature shows that there is significant potential for operational research (OR) to aid disaster management and that, whilst some of this potential has been delivered, there is more that OR can contribute. In particular, OR can provide detailed support to analysing the complexity of information processing – an essential topic as failure could cause response agencies to act on low quality information or act too slowly – putting responders and victims at risk. However, there is a gap in methods for analysing information processing whilst delivering rapid response. This paper explores how OR can fill this gap through taking a Viable System Model (VSM) approach to analyse information processing. It contributes to the OR literature by showing how VSM can support the analysis of information processing as well as how the OR modelling technique can be further strengthened to facilitate the task.

Application of the Viable System Model to analyse communications structures: A case study of disaster response in Japan

Every year, natural and man-made disasters affect hundreds of thousands of people and cause extensive damage. OR has made substantial contributions to disaster response and these have been the subject of several recent literature reviews. However, these reviews have also identified research gaps for OR – two of which are (1) limited contribution from soft OR, and (2) a need to model communications during disasters where there are complex interactions between stakeholders. At the intersection of these gaps we apply the Viable System Model (VSM) to examine challenges of rapid communication viability during dynamic disasters. The data that informs this paper were collected in four case studies in Japan – three on its current capabilities (e.g. a local government disaster management office) and one on its response to a past disaster (the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake in 1995). This paper shows how applying VSM identified generic gaps and opportunities for communication systems and shows how these case studies signal the utility of VSM structures to arranging communications for fast-paced and changing environments. This paper also contributes to VSM theory through developing two new concepts (1) environmental support mechanisms for viability; and (2) rapid implementation unit emergence.

International collaboration for the early damaged area estimation system using DMSP/OLS nighttime images

In the Hanshin-Awaji earthquake disaster, the lack of information about where the earthquake damaged areas were prevented early and effective emergency responses and relief. Since then, the national and some local governments in Japan have developed GIS-based damage estimation systems, but few other countries have such systems as yet. Nighttime city lights decreased significantly after a large earthquake, and the DMSP/OLS imagery is suitable for the early estimation of the damaged areas. The damaged areas of the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake in Turkey and 1999 Ji-Ji earthquake in Taiwan were estimated by using DMSP, and the results showed a good match with the real reported damage. We propose a new program through international collaboration to support emergency response and relief activities by providing information as to the estimated impacted areas within the first 24 hours after any significant earthquake. This program consists of the following steps: (1) acquire the earthquake hypocenter data through the Internet, which is for example announced by the USGS. (2) Determine the sampled area of the images by the attenuation formula of earthquake ground motion. (3) Obtain corresponding both time-wise and area-wise DMSP/OLS nighttime images from NOAA/NGDC. (4) Estimate the damaged areas by analyzing the statistically significant decrease in the light intensity of the images. (5) Create a thematic map to present the estimation results as geographic information. (6) Disseminate the resulting map widely and quickly through the WWW.

Disaster resilience and population ageing: the 1995 Kobe and 2004 Chuetsu earthquakes in Japan

This paper provides a framework for evaluating the effects of population ageing on disaster resilience. In so doing, it focuses on the 1995 Kobe and 2004 Chuetsu earthquakes, two major disasters that affected Japan before the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake. It analyses regional population recovery on the basis of pre-disaster and post-recovery demographic characteristics using defined transition patterns of population ageing. The evaluation framework demonstrates that various recovery measures make different contributions to disaster resilience for each transition pattern of population ageing. With reference to regional population ageing, the framework allows for a prediction of disaster resilience, facilitating place vulnerability assessments and potentially informing policy-making strategies for Japan and other countries with ageing populations.

Monitoring spatial distribution of population and buildings using DMSP night-time imagery and its application for earthquake damage assessment

Lack of basic information about human settlement hinders the disaster damage assessment and thus disaster reduction planning in developing countries. Socio-economic statistics which have been accumulated by administrative jurisdictions limits trans-jurisdictional assessment. Night-time city light captured by DMSP satellite has been focused on as an index of human settlement across the boundary. In this paper, we proposed a more automated data processing method for assessing the activities of human settlement quantitatively using DMSP night-time imagery and applied this method to Tokai-Tonankai-Nankai earthquakes damage assessment where damage would be spread over several hundreds of kilometres.

Expansion of the Nishinomiya Built Environment Database

The Nishinomiya Built Environment Database, which can be used to analyze the disaster process of the 1995 Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Disaster in Nishinomiya City, has been expanded with new data entries. The database contains the following very detailed datasets: (1) the urbanization area base map, (2) casualty data, (3) three sets of building damage data surveyed by the Nishinomiya City, the Architectural Institute of Japan and the City Planning Institute of Japan, and the Kobe University, (4) building property data based on the real estate tax roll, (5) photographs of the damaged buildings with the information on the place and orientation of the picture, and (6) the estimated distribution of the seismic ground motion. The seismic ground motion was simulated for the southern part of Nishinomiya City and two verification sites in Kobe City and Amagasaki City. In the simulation, the borehole data of public facilities were used to model the surface soils as one-dimensional layers, taking into consideration the fact that the spatial distribution of the sediment/basement interface forms a slope. The model of the fault rupture process simulated the characteristics of the seismic motion at basement level, and amplification effects of the surface layers were evaluated based on multiple reflection theory. The distribution of peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity was estimated from acceleration response spectra at each borehole point. In addition, the relationship between simulated seismic ground motion and building damage was studied based on newly proposed band-passed spectrum intensity using the expanded database. This confirmed that detailed categorization is necessary in order to evaluate the fragility functions, especially for reinforced concrete structures. The database should provide fundamental information for identifying the relationship between the ground motions and the extent and pattern of building damage, or the pattern of the occurrence of casualties.

HOW MANY REPAIRABLE HOUSES WERE DEMOLISHED?: Debris management of the 1995 Kobe Earthquake@@@－どのような物理的被害の建物が解体されたのか－

The 1995 Kobe earthquake damage results in 20 million tons of debris and 125,000 units of new housing needs. But many repairable houses were demolished by using subsidy for housing demolition. New findings about the debris amounts and housing needs were clarified by comparing physical housing damage and building demolition. 1. 81% of severe damage buildings, 51 % of major damage buildings and 21.5% of minor damaged buildings were demolished in the process of recovery. 2. When the minor damaged buildings were repaired, 5.5 million ton of debris, and all the reparable buildings were repaired 7.75 million tons of debris were reduced. 3. Subsidy for building demolition could increase the amount of debris and housing needs.

Implementation of web-based system for building damage assessment on online network: Case studies of Typhoon MAN-YI (1318) and Typhoon WIPHA (1326) in Japan

Once disaster occurs, we should start building damage assessment for issuing victim certificate. It was common way to use paper-based survey sheets, this causes complicated data quality management. Against this issue, we aimed to develop web-based system for building damage assessment on online network. To implement this application, we designed WebEOC just configuring templates. WebEOC is a web-enabled incident and event management system produced by Esi Acquisition, Inc, in U.S.A. After developing this application, we applied it to actual disaster response at two typhoons in 2013 in Japan. At Typhoon MAN-YI (1318), over 50 city officers utilized this application for damage assessment of about 1,000 buildings at Fukuchiyama city, Kyoto. At Typhoon WIPHA (1326), over 100 city officers utilized this application for damage assessment of about 800 buildings at Oshima town, Tokyo. Significant effect of implementing this application was that administrative staff monitored the progress of assessment in real-time, and this realized rational and effective planning for human-resource management. Finally, we realized rapid assessment and high-quality data management.

Natural Disasters in Japan

Japan is a disaster-prone country which suffers from many kinds of natural disasters because of its geographical, topographical and meteorological conditions. As indicated in Figure 6.1, the number of dead or missing as a result of natural disasters exceeded 1000 almost every year because of successive big typhoons and earthquakes from the end of the Second World War to the 1959 Ise-wan typhoon, which caused the greatest flood damage with over 5000 dead or missing. This event made holistic disaster management one of the top priority policies in Japan. The impact of natural disasters in terms of mortality decreased because of various kinds of flood mitigation measures over the years to the extent that there would be no more disasters in Japan with 1000 or more fatalities until the 1995 Kobe earthquake occurred. It was found that Japanese disaster management was not well prepared for devastating damage due to near field earthquakes when the 1995 Kobe earthquake disasters killed more than 6000 people. More recently, we are facing two new challenges. One is the preparation for the expected mega damage due to a series of gigantic inter-plate earthquakes and tsunamis in the first half of this century. The other is the preparation for the so-called guerrilla flood, which is an acute micro-flood, due to extreme rainfalls which could occur at anywhere and anytime. In this chapter, the progress and remaining issues in natural disaster management in post-war Japan for the last 50 years will be reviewed.

Trial to estimate regional characteristics for seismic risk assessment using IKONOS satellite image

The purpose of this study is to develop a method to estimate the quantity of buildings with different seismic vulnerability by using the digital numbers obtained IKONOS. In developing countries, it is difficult to get the building inventory data for seismic risk assessment. In this paper, IKONOS image was chosen for analysis because of its resolution with 1 m and the availability of such data for the major cities in earthquake prone developing countries. IKONOS image of Metro Manila in Philippines was separated into grid cells with 25 m. The pattern of frequency distribution of the digital number for each of four bands subjected to cluster analysis to yield a set of land cover grids with different natural and built environments. We could successfully identify the following different land covers: river, grass, trees, grounds and road, in addition to three kinds of buildings; small, medium, and large. As to the building size of each land cover classification, building inventory stored in GIS data set offered by NAMRIA, Philippines was used to identify the thresholds for different building size.