Harvey E. Lapan

Intellectual Property Rights and the Welfare Effects of Agricultural R&D

We review intellectual property rights in agriculture and outline a modeling framework that accounts for relevant institutional features of agricultural R&D. The analysis emphasizes vertical market linkages whereby agricultural innovations adopted by farmers are produced upstream by input suppliers. It is argued that the conventional assumption of competitive pricing cannot hold when new technologies are produced by private firms because such innovations are typically protected by intellectual property rights (such as patents) that confer (limited) monopoly rights to discoverers. The implications of intellectual property rights for the welfare evaluation of agricultural R&D are derived, and it is shown that conventional methods usually overestimate the welfare gains from agricultural innovations. Copyright 1997, Oxford University Press.

The Hedging Role of Options and Futures under Joint Price, Basis, and Production Risk

This paper analyzes the optimal production and hedging decisions for firms facing futures price, basis, and production risk, assuming futures and options can be used. Using constant absolute risk aversion utility and normal distributions, the authors derive an exact solution and show that joint production and price risk lead to a hedging role for options. Risk averse firms that can use each hedging instrument will generally have higher (expected) output. Using Iowa data for soybeans, the parameters of the joint distribution of future prices, cash prices, and yields are estimated and the results are used to approximate optimal hedging decisions for soybean producers. Copyright 1995 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

Futures Hedging Under Price, Basis, and Production Risk

We consider the hedging problem of a firm that has three sources of risk: price, basis, and yield uncertainty. An exact solution for the optimal futures hesge is derived under the assumption that the three random variables are joint normally distributed and that utility is of the CARA type. Unlike the mean-variance approximation applied in previous research, we show that the optimal hedge does depend on risk attitudes, even when the agent perceives the futures price as being unbiased. The theoretical results are applied empirically to the problem of hedging soybean production in Iowa. The exact solution, relying on CARA and normality, is compared with numerical solutions under lognormal distributions and CRRA utility.

Production, Hedging, and Speculative Decisions with Options and Futures Markets

This paper analyzes production, hedging, and speculative decisions when both futures and options can be used in an expected utility model of price and basis uncertainty. When futures and option prices are unbiased, optimal hedging requires only futures (options are redundant). Options are used together with futures as speculative tools when market prices are perceived as biased. Straddles are used to speculate on beliefs about price volatility and to hedge the futures position used to speculate on beliefs about the expected value of the futures price. Mean-variance analysis in general is not consistent with expected utility when options are allowed.

Innovation and Trade with Endogenous Market Failure: The Case of Genetically Modified Products

A partial-equilibrium, two-country model is developed to analyze implications from the introduction of genetically modified (GM) products. In the model, innovators hold proprietary rights, farmers are (competitive) adopters, some consumers deem GM food to be inferior in quality to traditional food, and the mere introduction of GM crops affects the costs of non-GM food (because of costly identity preservation). Among the results derived, it is shown that, although GM innovations have the potential to improve efficiency, some groups can be made worse off. Indeed, it is even possible that the costs induced by GM innovations outweigh the efficiency gains.

Genetically Modified Crops and Product Differentiation: Trade and Welfare Effects in the Soybean Complex

A partial equilibrium four-region world trade model for the soybean complex is developed in which Roundup Ready (RR) products are weakly inferior substitutes to conventional ones, RR seeds are priced at a premium, and costly segregation is necessary to separate conventional and biotech products. Solution of the calibrated model illustrates how incomplete adoption of RR technology arises in equilibrium. The United States, Argentina, Brazil, and the Rest of the World (ROW) all gain from the introduction of RR soybeans, although some groups may lose. The impacts of RR production or import bans by the ROW or Brazil are analyzed. U.S. price support helps U.S. farmers, despite hurting the United States and has the potential to improve world efficiency.

Welfare Impacts of Alternative Biofuel and Energy Policies

We employ an open economy general equilibrium model to investigate the effects of government energy policy, with emphasis on corn-based ethanol, on the U.S. economy. The model specification incorporates world and domestic markets, assumes pollution costs from fuel consumption, and allows endogenous determination of equilibrium quantities and prices for oil, corn and ethanol. The model is calibrated to represent a recent benchmark data set for 2009 and is used to simulate the positive and normative effects of alternative policies. We find that a second best policy of a fuel tax and ethanol subsidy approximates fairly closely the welfare gains associated with the first best policy (optimal carbon tax and tariffs on traded goods).The largest economic gains to the U.S. economy from these energy policies arise from the impact of policies on the U.S.’s terms of trade, particularly in the oil market. We also find that, conditional on the current fuel tax, an optimal ethanol mandate is superior to an optimal ethanol subsidy. In the benchmark case the optimal mandate slightly exceeds 15 billion gallons of ethanol.

The Use of Archimedean Copulas to Model Portfolio Allocations

A copula is a means of generating an n-variate distribution function from an arbitrary set of n univariate distributions. For the class of portfolio allocators that are risk averse, we use the copula approach to identify a large set of n-variate asset return distributions such that the relative magnitudes of portfolio shares can be ordered according to the reversed hazard rate ordering of the n underlying univariate distributions. We also establish conditions under which first- and second-degree dominating shifts in one of the n underlying univariate distributions increase allocation to that asset. Our findings exploit separability properties possessed by the Archimedean family of copulas.

Endogenous fertility, Ricardian equivalence, and debt management policy.

This paper develops a model in which dynastic families optimally determine fertility. Government debt represents a tax on future generations and on childbearing; the Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis does not hold. Debt is welfare reducing in that it distorts the fertility decision. An increase in government debt induces a decline in fertility and an increase in the steady state capital/labor ratio. If a government inherits an existing stock of debt, the 1st-best policy is to eliminate the debt immediately. In other situations the optimal debt management policy will not, in general, entail a total elimination of the debt.

Grading, Minimum Quality Standards, and the Labeling of Genetically Modified Products

We relate the labeling of genetically modified (GM) products to the theory of grading and minimum quality standards. The model represents three stages in the supply chain, assumes a vertical product differentiation framework, allows for the accidental commingling of non-GM products, and treats regulation as a purity threshold for non-GM products. We find that a non-GM purity level that is too strict leads to the disappearance of the non-GM product, and that some quality standard benefits farmers. Indeed, the standard that is optimal from the perspective of producers is stricter than what is optimal for consumers and for societal welfare.