Harvey S. Rosen

Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data

This paper considers estimation and testing of vector autoregressio n coefficients in panel data, and applies the techniques to analyze the dynamic relationships between wages an d hours worked in two samples of American males. The model allows for nonstationary individual effects and is estimated by applying instrumental variables to the quasi-differenced autoregressive equations. The empirical results suggest the absence of lagged hours in the wage forecasting equation. The results also show that lagged hours is important in the hours equation. Copyright 1988 by The Econometric Society.

Sticking it Out: Entrepreneurial Survival and Liquidity Constraints

We examine why some individuals survive as entrepreneurs and others do not. In addition, we analyze the growth of entrepreneurial enterprises, conditional on surviving. Our focus is on the role of access to capital: To what extent do liquidity constraints increase the likelihood of entrepreneurial failure? The empirical strategy is based on the following logic: If entrepreneurs cannot borrow to attain their profit-maximizing levels of capital, then those entrepreneurs who have substantial personal financial resources will be more successful than those who do not. The data consist of the 1981 and 1985 federal individual income tax returns of a group of people who received inheritances. These data allow us to identify those individuals who were sole proprietors in 1981 and to determine the extent to which the decision to remain a sole proprietor was influenced by the magnitude of the inheritance-induced increase in liquidity. The results are consistent with the notion that liquidity constraints exert a noticeable influence on the viability of entrepreneurial enterprises. For example, a

Applied Welfare Economics with Discrete Choice Models

150,000 inheritance increases the probability than an individual will continue as a sole proprietor by 1.3 percentage points, and if the enterprise survives, it receipts increase by almost 20 percent.

Entrepreneurial Decisions and Liquidity Constraints

Economists have been paying increasing attention to the study of situations in which consumers face a discrete rather than a continuous set of choices. Such models are potentially very important in evaluating the impact of government programs upon consumer welfare. But very little has been said in general regarding the tools of applied welfare economics indiscrete choice situations. This paper shows how the conventional methods of applied welfare economics can be modified to handle such cases. It focuses on the computation of the excess burden of taxation, and the evaluation of quality change. The results are applied to stochastic utility models, including the popular cases of probit and logit analysis. Throughout, the emphasis is on providing rigorous guidelines for carrying out applied work.(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

On the Estimation of Structural Hedonic Price Models

This paper analyzes the role of liquidity constraints in the formation of new entrepreneurial enterprises. The basic empirical strategy is to determine whether an individuals wealth affects the probability of becoming an entrepreneur, and the conditional amounts of depreciable assets, ceteris paribus. If so, liquidity constraints are likely to be present. To be successful, such a research strategy requires a measure of asset variation that is both precisely measured and exogenous to the entrepreneurial decision. Our data are uniquely well-suited for this purpose. The sample consists of the 1981 and 1985 federal income tax returns of a group of people who received inheritances in 1982 and 1983, along with information on the size of those inheritances from a matched set of estate tax returns. Hence, we can examine how the exogenous receipt of capital affects the decision to become an entrepreneur and important financial characteristics of new enterprises. Our results suggest that the size of the inheritance has a substantial effect on the probability of becoming an entrepreneur, and that conditional on becoming an entrepreneur, the size of the inheritance has a statistically significant and quantitatively important effect on the amount of capital employed. These findings are consistent with the presence of liquidity constraints.

Federal Taxes and Homeownership: Evidence from Time Series

MANY COMMODITIES can be viewed as bundles of individual attributes for which no explicit markets exist. It is often of interest to estimate structural demand and supply functions for these attributes, but the absence of directly observable attribute prices poses a problem for such estimation. In an influential paper published several years ago, Rosen [3] proposed an estimation procedure to surmount this problem. This procedure has since been used in a number of applications (see, for example, Harrison and Rubinfeld [2] or Witte, et al. [4]). The purpose of this note is to point out certain pitfalls in Rosens procedure, which, if ignored, could lead to major identification problems. In Section 2 we summarize briefly the key aspects of Rosens method as it has been applied in the literature. Section 3 discusses the potential problems inherent in this procedure and provides an example. Section 4 concludes with a few suggestions for future research.

Vertical externalities in tax setting: evidence from gasoline and cigarettes

This paper analyzes U.S. time-series data in order to study the determinants of the choice between renting and homeownership. Special attention is focused upon changes in the relative prices of owning and renting induced by provisions of the federal personal income tax. The results suggest that about one-quarter of the growth in the proportion of homeowners in the post-World War II period is a consequence of the tax systems favorable treatment of owner-occupied housing.

FOLLOWING IN HER FOOTSTEPS? FACULTY GENDER COMPOSITION AND WOMEN'S CHOICES OF COLLEGE MAJORS

A common feature of federal systems is that tax bases are joint property. Consequently, state and federal tax setting decisions are interdependent. Our aim here is to put forward a rudimentary theoretical analysis of this phenomenon, and to use the theory as a framework for econometrically estimating the magnitude of the responses. We find that when the federal government increases taxes, there is a significant positive response of state taxes. For example, a 10-cent per gallon increase in the federal tax rate on gasoline leads to a 3.2-cent increase in the state tax rate.Abstract A common feature of federal systems is that tax bases are joint property. Consequently, state and federal tax setting decisions are interdependent. Our aim here is to put forward a rudimentary theoretical analysis of this phenomenon, and to use the theory as a framework for econometrically estimating the magnitude of the responses. We find that when the federal government increases taxes, there is a significant positive response of state taxes. For example, a 10-cent per gallon increase in the federal tax rate on gasoline leads to a 3.2-cent increase in the state tax rate.

The Revenues-Expenditures Nexus: Evidence from Local Government Data

Although it is widely supposed that a colleges female undergraduate enrollment in the sciences and engineering can be increased by raising female representation on the faculties in those fields, that proposition has not been subjected to serious statistical analysis. The authors of this paper analyze panel data from three quite different educational institutions—Princeton University, the University of Michigan, and Whittier College—to examine the relationship between the gender composition of the students in an academic department and the gender composition of its faculty at the time the students were choosing their majors. They find no evidence that an increase in the share of women on a departments faculty led to an increase in its share of female majors.

Estimation of Disequilibrium Aggregate Labor Market

This paper examines the intertemporal linkages between local government expenditures and revenues. In the terminology that has become standard in the literature on vector autoregression analysis, the issue is whether revenues Granger-cause expenditures, or expenditures Granger-cause revenues. The main results that emerge from an analysis of fiscal data from 171 municipal governments over the period 1972-1980 are that: 1) one or two years are sufficient to summarize the relevant dynamic interrelationships; 2) there are important intertemporal linkages between expenditures, taxes and grants; and 3) past revenues help predict current expenditures, but past expenditures do not alter the future path of revenues. This last finding is contrary to results that have emerged from previous analyses of federal fiscal data, and hence suggests the need for additional research on the differences in the processes generating local and federal decisions.